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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

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EAX mentioning the potential for blizzard conditions in KC in this mornings AFD

That leads into the strong storm system models continue to show
track across the middle of the country late Wednesday through
Thursday. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to show good agreement with
the ECMWF still a bit slower and a bit more south with the 500mb
vorticity center at 12Z Thursday. The GFS also has more of a
negative tilt sooner which induces stronger lift and a more
pronounced deformation zone, that sits over eastern KS and western
MO Thursday. The ECMWF is a little later to take on a negative tilt
leading to a deformation zone that is further east of the area. This
difference in the position/time/angle of the upper trough also
affects the surface wind fields. The GFS produces a stronger
pressure gradient further west and would result in near blizzard
conditions over the forecast area if it verified. With the
later/more easterly negative tilt of the ECMWF, the stronger winds
are further east as well. That said, there`s still a lot of
uncertainty with some critical aspects of this storm. The track of
the storm, the thermal profile, how quickly temperatures cool are
still very uncertain at this point. Overall, this system has the
potential to produce accumulating snow, potentially heavy, across
portions of KS and MO, combined with strong and gusty winds.

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

06z NWS Blend...

 

 

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Not getting invested in this one as I believe far SEMI metro will see mostly liquid. I mean, we struggled here for hours and hours to switch-over to decent snow on the 2nd. And this is a warmer system. My $$ is on Allegan county and a line NE from there to be a "good storm". Middle of the Mitt special imho.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep. Even when all the indexes and no snow cover meant it was going to go north.

Call it LRC or just the "seasonal M.O.", but yeah it's a real phenomenon. Fantastic when you're in the jackzone constantly, but just horrible when you find yourself in the dearth zone. Unless it's a clipper, my place this winter is riding the southern edge on all these SW flow storms. Can't break that.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like rain to snow here.  Yawner.  Don't want the slop.  Much rather melt all this ice and snow.  At least it's trending weaker.  

I'd be ok with a little more winter (it is Feb after all) if only we could get a real snow here. Instead it's almost guaranteed lameness. It will find a way it seems.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'd be ok with a little more winter (it is Feb after all) if only we could get a real snow here. Instead it's almost guaranteed lameness. It will find a way it seems.

That's just it.  It's been cold, just no real snow.  When it did warm up we got 3 inches of heavy wet snow yesterday.  Now it's 15 degrees and everything is sheer ice.  Now it's going to warm up, rain, then change to wet snow, end and everything will just be ice again.  I want one consistent meltdown, then wouldn't care if it snows again.  I expect it to snow again, even maybe a decent event by the end of February.  A nice fresh snowpack I wouldn't mind.   

 

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14 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Models drying everything out here to pretty much nothing. Always expect the unexpected...lol

The models go wet to dry and will go wet again in the day or so. This storm per the previous cycle was negatively titled and produced a lot of moisture. I expect this to be a true precip performer once the models sample the energy and moisture once it’s onshore. We are still 5 days out from when it arrives 

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

I honestly don't think so.  I'm expecting little, if anything, with this one.  Even with it lining up to be a more southern forum scenario, it looks to be getting squished.  That has been very common this year.  Things have gotten squished here in the plains, and pushed off to the east where they reform.  

The northern. Stream is simply way strong and way fast.  The euro even more so it seems.

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Nebraskans and Iowans can pretty much forget about this turd.  It's gone.

There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way...

I was holding out hope you’d be correct. Seen lots of north shifts over the years. Just not this year. 

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11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way...

Your reasoning made sense. It's just the way it's gone this winter.

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1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The models go wet to dry and will go wet again in the day or so. This storm per the previous cycle was negatively titled and produced a lot of moisture. I expect this to be a true precip performer once the models sample the energy and moisture once it’s onshore. We are still 5 days out from when it arrives 

The storm is currently SW of the Aleutian Islands so there is time for changes.  However in KC when the AO and NAO are both positive storms tend to either cut and miss us to the NW or be weak and strengthen to our east.  Still time for improvements but the trend today is no good.

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1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I remember when it used to actually be FUN to watch models and track the storms. This year it's been the opposite. I've had FOUR different storms showing 10 inches or more on models for days, only to end up with 3 each time. Ridiculous 

You've  had 4 measurable  snows?   It has only snowed more than a flurry on 2 occasions  here in se iowa.  6.7 on Jan1 and 12.2 on Jan 14,15

2 measurable  events since last Feb 16. Totally  unheard of here!!!! 

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2 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

You've  had 4 measurable  snows?   It has only snowed more than a flurry on 2 occasions  here in se iowa.  6.7 on Jan1 and 12.2 on Jan 14,15

2 measurable  events since last Feb 16. Totally  unheard of here!!!! 

It has snowed 3 times...each time 3 inches or less. This was the 4th storm showing a big hit for my house for days only to screw my area. I'd gladly take what you've had.

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9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not getting invested in this one as I believe far SEMI metro will see mostly liquid. I mean, we struggled here for hours and hours to switch-over to decent snow on the 2nd. And this is a warmer system. My $$ is on Allegan county and a line NE from there to be a "good storm". Middle of the Mitt special imho.

you might be the only one to see appreciable snow out of this one.  

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