winterfreak Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 ANOTHER KC whiff coming? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 Lolz. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 0z GEFS... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 0z EPS...starting to line up pretty close to the GEFS...almost a GHD repeat from earlier this month, although it does like it's snow could fall a little farther N across the Lower Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 06z NWS Blend... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 This is going to turn into a GHD joke real soon. Bring on SPRING!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 06z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 EAX mentioning the potential for blizzard conditions in KC in this mornings AFD That leads into the strong storm system models continue to show track across the middle of the country late Wednesday through Thursday. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to show good agreement with the ECMWF still a bit slower and a bit more south with the 500mb vorticity center at 12Z Thursday. The GFS also has more of a negative tilt sooner which induces stronger lift and a more pronounced deformation zone, that sits over eastern KS and western MO Thursday. The ECMWF is a little later to take on a negative tilt leading to a deformation zone that is further east of the area. This difference in the position/time/angle of the upper trough also affects the surface wind fields. The GFS produces a stronger pressure gradient further west and would result in near blizzard conditions over the forecast area if it verified. With the later/more easterly negative tilt of the ECMWF, the stronger winds are further east as well. That said, there`s still a lot of uncertainty with some critical aspects of this storm. The track of the storm, the thermal profile, how quickly temperatures cool are still very uncertain at this point. Overall, this system has the potential to produce accumulating snow, potentially heavy, across portions of KS and MO, combined with strong and gusty winds. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 Did someone mention spring? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: Did someone mention spring? Another swing and a miss south. Amazing. Bring on Spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 This looks like a repeat of the GHD storm. The model runs are remarkably similar with a further north track several days out, to shifting south and more progressive. It’s looking less and less likely that we’ll see much of anything up this way. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 And I thought a big shift nw was the problem ha! Seems like every run it keeps getting weaker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: 06z NWS Blend... Not getting invested in this one as I believe far SEMI metro will see mostly liquid. I mean, we struggled here for hours and hours to switch-over to decent snow on the 2nd. And this is a warmer system. My $$ is on Allegan county and a line NE from there to be a "good storm". Middle of the Mitt special imho. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 This is a trending turd 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 I used to always be concerned with storms going NW of me. Not this year. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 GFS is lame. Another storm that doesn’t get its act together until it’s well east of here? Shocker. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just wow at this point. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: Another swing and a miss south. Amazing. Bring on Spring. Yep. Even when all the indexes and no snow cover meant it was going to go north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 At least with no snow cover, it’ll just warm up again that much faster. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 Looks like rain to snow here. Yawner. Don't want the slop. Much rather melt all this ice and snow. At least it's trending weaker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Yep. Even when all the indexes and no snow cover meant it was going to go north. Call it LRC or just the "seasonal M.O.", but yeah it's a real phenomenon. Fantastic when you're in the jackzone constantly, but just horrible when you find yourself in the dearth zone. Unless it's a clipper, my place this winter is riding the southern edge on all these SW flow storms. Can't break that. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Looks like rain to snow here. Yawner. Don't want the slop. Much rather melt all this ice and snow. At least it's trending weaker. I'd be ok with a little more winter (it is Feb after all) if only we could get a real snow here. Instead it's almost guaranteed lameness. It will find a way it seems. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I'd be ok with a little more winter (it is Feb after all) if only we could get a real snow here. Instead it's almost guaranteed lameness. It will find a way it seems. That's just it. It's been cold, just no real snow. When it did warm up we got 3 inches of heavy wet snow yesterday. Now it's 15 degrees and everything is sheer ice. Now it's going to warm up, rain, then change to wet snow, end and everything will just be ice again. I want one consistent meltdown, then wouldn't care if it snows again. I expect it to snow again, even maybe a decent event by the end of February. A nice fresh snowpack I wouldn't mind. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: At least with no snow cover, it’ll just warm up again that much faster. Yeah it’ll be in the 50s the next day lol 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 Models drying everything out here to pretty much nothing. Always expect the unexpected...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Models drying everything out here to pretty much nothing. Always expect the unexpected...lol The models go wet to dry and will go wet again in the day or so. This storm per the previous cycle was negatively titled and produced a lot of moisture. I expect this to be a true precip performer once the models sample the energy and moisture once it’s onshore. We are still 5 days out from when it arrives 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 I’m far more excited for tonight’s little clipper than this storm. Short term models are showing a nice stripe of 1 to even as high as 4” through eastern Iowa. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: I honestly don't think so. I'm expecting little, if anything, with this one. Even with it lining up to be a more southern forum scenario, it looks to be getting squished. That has been very common this year. Things have gotten squished here in the plains, and pushed off to the east where they reform. The northern. Stream is simply way strong and way fast. The euro even more so it seems. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 Nebraskans and Iowans can pretty much forget about this turd. It's gone. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Nebraskans and Iowans can pretty much forget about this turd. It's gone. There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way... 6 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way... I was holding out hope you’d be correct. Seen lots of north shifts over the years. Just not this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way... Your reasoning made sense. It's just the way it's gone this winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 Top 5 Crappy winters of all time in my book! Any ideas to what December this year will look like? 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said: The models go wet to dry and will go wet again in the day or so. This storm per the previous cycle was negatively titled and produced a lot of moisture. I expect this to be a true precip performer once the models sample the energy and moisture once it’s onshore. We are still 5 days out from when it arrives The storm is currently SW of the Aleutian Islands so there is time for changes. However in KC when the AO and NAO are both positive storms tend to either cut and miss us to the NW or be weak and strengthen to our east. Still time for improvements but the trend today is no good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 I remember when it used to actually be FUN to watch models and track the storms. This year it's been the opposite. I've had FOUR different storms showing 10 inches or more on models for days, only to end up with 3 each time. Ridiculous 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said: I remember when it used to actually be FUN to watch models and track the storms. This year it's been the opposite. I've had FOUR different storms showing 10 inches or more on models for days, only to end up with 3 each time. Ridiculous You've had 4 measurable snows? It has only snowed more than a flurry on 2 occasions here in se iowa. 6.7 on Jan1 and 12.2 on Jan 14,15 2 measurable events since last Feb 16. Totally unheard of here!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 12, 2022 Report Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said: You've had 4 measurable snows? It has only snowed more than a flurry on 2 occasions here in se iowa. 6.7 on Jan1 and 12.2 on Jan 14,15 2 measurable events since last Feb 16. Totally unheard of here!!!! It has snowed 3 times...each time 3 inches or less. This was the 4th storm showing a big hit for my house for days only to screw my area. I'd gladly take what you've had. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 I can confirm the forecast warmup the day after what would have been the storm. NWS has removed all pops chances as well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 9 hours ago, jaster220 said: Not getting invested in this one as I believe far SEMI metro will see mostly liquid. I mean, we struggled here for hours and hours to switch-over to decent snow on the 2nd. And this is a warmer system. My $$ is on Allegan county and a line NE from there to be a "good storm". Middle of the Mitt special imho. you might be the only one to see appreciable snow out of this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 0z GFS and ICON wouldn't need much a nudge north to give KC a nice snow. Good hits from mby up to southern Michigan. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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