jaster220 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GFS and ICON wouldn't need much a nudge north to give KC a nice snow. Good hits from mby up to southern Michigan. Looks like you and I (and Niko) are the posters//members currently still in the hunt, lol. This may keep going SE and be another E Ohio special. Seems they have had a hotter hand then us this winter. DTX summing things up: Quote However, a very sensitive forecast to shifts in system trajectory and corresponding frontal positioning ensures very low confidence in projecting temperature trends and subsequent precipitation type. In general, all precipitation types appear in play with the frontal slope in the vicinity. Additional refinement within the model solution space yet to come with the features of interest still a couple days away from appropriate sampling. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Too much time for this to move south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, GDR said: Too much time for this to move south Yep. If we could just hit the pause button on the shifting. Ofc, the Neb/Iowa crew would've already done that a couple days ago. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 I will gladly welcome 40’s and rain ahead of this system and let the snow go south! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 EAX seems more excited about this storm than the models do. The potential for a strong winter storm system continues to increase Wednesday - Thursday. Models are still in agreement with a positively tilted upper-level trough dropping into the Great Basin and Four Corners region before becoming more neutrally oriented as it moves out onto the Plains. Primary concerns will be focused on how quickly cold air will move in and cool the column. If the mid-levels cool rather quickly, we could see a pretty quick transition from rain to snow. If the mid-levels are slow to cool, then a wintry mix will be more likely with a slower transition over to all snow. The other concern is if this system ejects in two pieces as a shortwave ejecting out first and the main trough delayed. The two-part solution would quickly complicate the forecast and impact precipitation amount/type. Quite a few details to iron out in the next few days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, Stacsh said: I will gladly welcome 40’s and rain ahead of this system and let the snow go south! Yeah. Things are all upside down wrt timing this winter. We're in a literal icebox for weeks, then the DAY BEFORE the big storm, we roast leading into the event. Stupid-stupid-stupid. This looks like another one like that. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 0z GEFS members looking better tonight for a faster organizing storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Yeah. Things are all upside down wrt timing this winter. We're in a literal icebox for weeks, then the DAY BEFORE the big storm, we roast leading into the event. Stupid-stupid-stupid. This looks like another one like that. Just wait Jaster, Winter will show up with monster storms in MAR when the jet slows down and phasing occurs. I can see this happening and I'm sure there will be a lot of happy campers on here (sarc). The "snow bird" in me will want to be leaving for warmer climates by then. Anyhow, I hope your doing well with your recovery. As you said earlier, it is still FEB so I don't mind seeing some more snow before the calendar flips to MAR. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Good to see the UKIE not as suppressed as previous runs... Geeze, wish this could be an all snow event... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 0z Euro is sheared out crapola... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 0z Euro....worst run yet...mid range model chaos as they say... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 0z EPS...some good hits but a lot of warmer solutions showing up...similar to the GEFS so there is some consistency in that dept... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 06GFS about 100 mile shift NW- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 GEFS shifted NW also but not nearly as much as the operational which is to be expected. 06Z Euro only out to 90 hrs pretty much held the same as 00Z. Will see in a few hours if the 06Z GFS is on to something or if it's a false run/outlier. My guess is the later. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 The beat goes on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 6z EC also shifted to the NW still not as far as the GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 6z GEFS and Euro Mean. Several of the Euro members are more organized and colder compared to the 0z. Seems like we may see a trend for a stronger storm further NW today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Oh joy I’m in the bullseye on this mornings runs. Not what I wanted 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 12z 12km NAM looks promising at 84 hrs. 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inferno Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Northern stream trending weaker faster further north. Thats another way to get a wetter more wrapped up solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inferno Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Panhandle hook is still on the table with that trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 12z GFS with a big hitter, blizzard or near blizzard conditions from KC, Chicago, into Michigan. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS with a big hitter, blizzard or near blizzard conditions from KC, Chicago, into Michigan. I told everyone to keep the faith in the models! Just need this to nudge NW another 45-50 miles and I’ll be a happy person 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 12z GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: I told everyone to keep the faith in the models! Just need this to nudge NW another 45-50 miles and I’ll be a happy person You called it lets hope it doesn't go to far north lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Kuchera clown map. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Keep coming north. Don’t stop now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: I told everyone to keep the faith in the models! Just need this to nudge NW another 45-50 miles and I’ll be a happy person The models listen to you...make that NW nudge happen! 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 12z GEFS, many members have trended colder and stronger. Still 5 days out. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 CMC is a no go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 UKIE is south fwiw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Gfs island is a lonely place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 I wouldn’t buy anything that the gfs is cooking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 EURO is north of 0z but still nothing here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 12z Euro. I get a whopping 0.7”. This lame winter needs to move on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 Euro and CMC both brought their snow shields north and west. Ukie shifted slightly southeast, but is still northwest of those two. Baby steps in the right direction. 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 12z Euro ensembles seem to slowly moving toward the GFS, a better looking mean this run. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 13 hours ago, Tom said: Good to see the UKIE not as suppressed as previous runs... Geeze, wish this could be an all snow event... Haha. Models immediately make my call for The Mitt look $$ 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 That EPS is interesting. Barely resembles the operational Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 13, 2022 Report Share Posted February 13, 2022 GFS keeps trying to make me fall for its tricks. I don’t believe this north shift at all as of yet. But I’ll keep my eye on it nonetheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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