Jump to content

2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS and ICON wouldn't need much a nudge north to give KC a nice snow.  Good hits from mby up to southern Michigan.

icon_asnow_ncus_61.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Looks like you and I (and Niko) are the posters//members currently still in the hunt, lol. This may keep going SE and be another E Ohio special. Seems they have had a hotter hand then us this winter. 

DTX summing things up:

Quote

However, a very sensitive forecast to shifts in system trajectory
and corresponding frontal positioning ensures very low confidence in
projecting temperature trends and subsequent precipitation type. In
general, all precipitation types appear in play with the frontal
slope in the vicinity. Additional refinement within the model
solution space yet to come with the features of interest still a
couple days away from appropriate sampling.

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, GDR said:

Too much time for this to move south

DFACBD79-CE0B-427F-95B1-D7165F2A1E6B.jpeg

Yep. If we could just hit the pause button on the shifting. Ofc, the Neb/Iowa crew would've already done that a couple days ago. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 EAX seems more excited about this storm than the models do.

The potential for a strong winter storm system continues to
increase Wednesday - Thursday. Models are still in agreement with
a positively tilted upper-level trough dropping into the Great
Basin and Four Corners region before becoming more neutrally
oriented as it moves out onto the Plains. Primary concerns will
be focused on how quickly cold air will move in and cool the
column. If the mid-levels cool rather quickly, we could see a
pretty quick transition from rain to snow. If the mid-levels are
slow to cool, then a wintry mix will be more likely with a slower
transition over to all snow. The other concern is if this system
ejects in two pieces as a shortwave ejecting out first and the
main trough delayed. The two-part solution would quickly
complicate the forecast and impact precipitation amount/type.
Quite a few details to iron out in the next few days.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Stacsh said:

I will gladly welcome 40’s and rain ahead of this system and let the snow go south! 

Yeah. Things are all upside down wrt timing this winter. We're in a literal icebox for weeks, then the DAY BEFORE the big storm, we roast leading into the event. Stupid-stupid-stupid. This looks like another one like that. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah. Things are all upside down wrt timing this winter. We're in a literal icebox for weeks, then the DAY BEFORE the big storm, we roast leading into the event. Stupid-stupid-stupid. This looks like another one like that. 

Just wait Jaster, Winter will show up with monster storms in MAR when the jet slows down and phasing occurs.  I can see this happening and I'm sure there will be a lot of happy campers on here (sarc).  The "snow bird" in me will want to be leaving for warmer climates by then.  Anyhow, I hope your doing well with your recovery.  As you said earlier, it is still FEB so I don't mind seeing some more snow before the calendar flips to MAR.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEFS shifted NW also but not nearly as much as the operational which is  to be expected. 06Z Euro only out to 90 hrs pretty much held the same as 00Z. Will see in a few hours if the 06Z GFS is on to something or if it's a false run/outlier. My guess is the later.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Tom said:

Good to see the UKIE not as suppressed as previous runs...

image.png

 

 

Geeze, wish this could be an all snow event...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png 

Haha. Models immediately make my call for The Mitt look $$

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...