bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 18z euro control with a big jump north. Not as far north as my backyard but clips the far SE tip of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Any 18z EURO maps pretty please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Looks like a noisy wet Wednesday. Hoping for drenching long rain. We really need it. 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Any 18z EURO maps pretty please? 18z Euro Control Mean 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control Mean Can't help but think that none of these maps mean anything at this range. After posting (saving) days and days of maps for GHD-3, the only ones that began to be accurate were within the final 36 hours. The Euro at h36 already had taken this area down into single digits and wasn't far off the "net results" for SMI. The SR models continued that "less snow theme" at which point I was also watching us ROAST and adding up the mid-range model fail in my head so I didn't keep any of those SR snowfall maps that were published. 36 hr Euro (which imho should've had KDTX backing down on their totals. Why they stuck with 12-14" is beyond me. That's a GRR thing to do.) 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Can't help but think that none of these maps mean anything at this range. After posting (saving) days and days of maps for GHD-3, the only ones that began to be accurate were within the final 36 hours. The Euro at h36 already had taken this area down into single digits and wasn't far off the "net results" for SMI. The SR models continued that "less snow theme" at which point I was also watching us ROAST and adding up the mid-range model fail in my head so I didn't keep any of those SR snowfall maps that were published. 36 hr Euro (which imho should've had KDTX backing down on their totals. Why they stuck with 12-14" is beyond me. That's a GRR thing to do.) My office made the same mistake. The 10:1 maps almost verified for the GHD-3 storm at this range down my way the Kuchera maps were way over done. Not sure why models over due QPF in the winter and under sell in the summer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Ugh. NAM looks eerily similar to the last storm. Long range NAM though…right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 0z GFS lots of moisture 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GFS lots of moisture lol these models are terrible. I mean sure I’m right under 22.7 inches of snow. That will happen right? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stacsh said: lol these models are terrible. I mean sure I’m right under 22.7 inches of snow. That will happen right? The Kuchera maps are even more ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: The Kuchera maps are even more ridiculous. Not to mention GFS is on an island. 4 days out I’m in the 1” to 22” range. Not too confident lol. I’m expecting nothing. More excited for the rain and 40’s ahead of it to clear my driveway finally of ice. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 0z GEFS trending further NW, many juiced members. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Oof that 00z GEFS almost puts Lincoln back in the game. Can’t fall for it just “ignore” lol. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Clinton said: 0z GEFS trending further NW, many juiced members. My lord, that is VERY far Northwest. This would be best case scenario for my back yard. Unfortunately I remain very skeptical. The maps have looked almost exactly like this for my location 4 different times, only to get a measly 3 inch slop. The Canadian is on a completely different planet..it's comical how bad the models have been this year. By tomorrow we will be 3 days out, you would think they'd get a clue that close to a storm right?? What a joke 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: My lord, that is VERY far Northwest. This would be best case scenario for my back yard. Unfortunately I remain very skeptical. The maps have looked almost exactly like this for my location 4 different times, only to get a measly 3 inch slop. The Canadian is on a completely different planet..it's comical how bad the models have been this year. By tomorrow we will be 3 days out, you would think they'd get a clue that close to a storm right?? What a joke It's looking like my initial fear of this missing me to the north may happen, the GFS now has me on the southern edge of the heavy snow. KC looks to be in a great spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Canadian and UK still way south. A solid 500 mile difference between the Canadian and GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, Clinton said: It's looking like my initial fear of this missing me to the north may happen, the GFS now has me on the southern edge of the heavy snow. KC looks to be in a great spot. You owe me one, i got 2.7 inches at my house on that last storm. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, clintbeed1993 said: You owe me one, i got 2.7 inches at my house on that last storm. Lol yes I do I hope you do well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 EURO isn’t very inspiring. GFS again in it’s own world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 0z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 0z GEFS trending NW at this time compared to GHD-3 which had been trending weaker/SE if I recall...more juiced and amped?? Could be the 1st TX Panhandle Hook of the season...well, sorta...today's 12z runs will be interesting as the main energy will be hitting the PAC NW coast. I still think there will be shifts until the trough slides down into Cali later tomorrow. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 6z GFS staying NW of the other models 6z GEFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 6z ICON and NAM are more in the middle between the Euro and GFS NAM through 84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 06Z Euro holding serve. Very similar to 00Z and misses KC and CHI to the S for the most part. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Cant remember the last time that Euro and ICON were essentially the same this close to the event. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 The EURO and CMC are going to win this I think. Neither one of them are budging. Carbon copy of last storm. If so(likely), just bring on big warmth and spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, winterfreak said: The EURO and CMC are going to win this I think. Neither one of them are budging. Carbon copy of last storm. If so(likely), just bring on big warmth and spring. I expect the GFS to start caving soon, maybe by this afternoon, or tonight. At least with the second wave LP. the other models may tick NW, but not much and not as strong as the GFS. I'd be really surprised if the GFS solution happens. Basically based off EVERY other model being different. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I can't believe it's the middle of February and I'm hoping this storm goes south and keeps rain away. Hopefully it goes so south it doesn't even rain in portage so Cascade mountain is safe Wednesday. What a sad winter it keeps doing this, there's not even ski hills the that far south, or snowmobile trails, and they keep getting it. I just know upper 40s with that amount of rain is going to devastate the base at my local resort. A couple more of these before February is over and I'll be done with my snowboard season two weeks early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, gimmesnow said: I can't believe it's the middle of February and I'm hoping this storm goes south and keeps rain away. Hopefully it goes so south it doesn't even rain in portage so Cascade mountain is safe Wednesday. What a sad winter it keeps doing this, there's not even ski hills the that far south, or snowmobile trails, and they keep getting it. I just know upper 40s with that amount of rain is going to devastate the base at my local resort. A couple more of these before February is over and I'll be done with my snowboard season two weeks early. If the long range GFS is to be believe, Winter would be temporarily over (snowpack) in the lower lakes, regardless of what this storm does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 12 hours ago, Clinton said: My office made the same mistake. The 10:1 maps almost verified for the GHD-3 storm at this range down my way the Kuchera maps were way over done. Not sure why models over due QPF in the winter and under sell in the summer. But Kuchera can be helpful for situations like I had here. Hours of white rain and 4:1 slop that was melting more than stacking. I believe that Euro KCH map I posted was catching onto that. We didn't lack for total qpf, but a lot less of it was in the form of legit snow flakes. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z NAM agrees with the GFS in terms of strength and track...so we have a bit of model agreement....yes, even though this is the LR NAM.. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Looking like a high impact storm on the American models. Lets see if the other models follow which I am guessing they will at least be a little more amped 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z NAM agrees with the GFS in terms of strength and track...so we have a bit of model agreement....yes, even though this is the LR NAM.. Well well, looks like I'm more intrigued in the GFS now, Let's see if it holds steady and the Euro later. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 I just came back from a 6 week road trip out west. I've completely missed winter so far so I am rooting for at least 1 last big storm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 The ICON just jumped north. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 The ICON being thrown around a lot this winter. Been a rough winter… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 GFS continues it's N and W trend- Ames,IA now even in the mix. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Even more amped lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 14, 2022 Report Share Posted February 14, 2022 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.