2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter

[Grizzcoat]

Warnings snows now only 1 county away according to GFS for mby. 48 hours ago it was 125 miles away.

[bud2380]

14.1" here at 10:1... I could live with that, LOL.  Sadly it will never happen.  I doubt we see any snow let alone 14".  

[Hawkeye]

I'm still not expecting anything here.  The Euro and Canadian will have to come nw quite a bit before I buy anything the GFS is selling.

[Grizzcoat]

Crazy how close the 06Z run on the 13th (30 hours ago from 12Z today) almost exactly mirrors todays 12Z run. Don't know if it means anything or not, but the 06Z 13th was the first to show such a dramatic shift NW.

06Z 13th- todays 12Z-

[tStacsh]

Same thing happened with the last storm.  Ended up suppressed and south.  So I guess 4 days out it's a still wait and see.  Rock steady so far though on the GFS.  Good to see other models slowly come around.  

[tStacsh]

I will say, the track the GFS shows is a perfect for Grand Rapids to see a snow storm. It's been a long time since I've seen that track. St. Louis-Toledo track.   Let's hope it stays that way.  

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian is north, but still WAY south of the GFS.

[bud2380]

For giggles, here is the GFS Kuchera at close range in Iowa.

 

[bud2380]

UK remains well south of the GFS as well. 

[GDR]

I wouldn’t get your hopes up on the gfs

[Jayhawker85]

19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

As much as I want the GFS to be true, I just can't trust any solution that has somewhere in the Midwest getting 40 inches of snow.  That type of accumulation happens in mountains and LES belts.  It doesn't happen in N. MO and S. IA.  

That’s prolly a kuchera ratio which won’t happen since the temps won’t be that cold. The GFS and NAM  was more accurate with the last storm than the Euro and Canadian model. Hopefully the storm stops shifting NW and it continues the track that it’s taking now 

[Clinton]

12z GEFS seems to remain steady

[bud2380]

Different region view on the GEFS.  Just a slight tick south from 6z, but pretty similar.

 

[tStacsh]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Different region view on the GEFS.  Just a slight tick south from 6z, but pretty similar.

 

Well, I have the highest mean on the map of 10.4"  that's gotta count for something...

[Tony]

13 minutes ago, GDR said:

I wouldn’t get your hopes up on the gfs

It's the only model that has been steadfast for several runs now. Will see how it does the next couple runs compared to the Euro

[mlgamer]

FWIW, I don't believe any model that puts me in the middle of a heavy snow track. I always end up on the northern or southern edge or just outside without fail. If/when that changes I'll adjust my expectations accordingly.

[Grizzcoat]

7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Well, I have the highest mean on the map of 10.4"  that's gotta count for something...

the highest mean is 13.5". it shows in lower right. But in the USA you do....

[bud2380]

I expect the Euro to hold serve.  The Euro Control shifted quite a bit north on yesterday's 18z run, but has reverted back south on the 00z and 06z run.  I think the GFS will remain a far north outlier.  Just like the last storm, it will only be a matter of time before it caves.  

[winterfreak]

Nope. Grand total of an inch.

[bud2380]

Euro shifted a smidge north, but nothing worth getting excited about.  

[GDR]

Gfs is way off it’s rocker!! Lol

[Hawkeye]

5 minutes ago, GDR said:

Gfs is way off it’s rocker!! Lol

Yep.  The fact that the Euro and Canadian still barely even drop a flake on the far southeast tip of Iowa suggests the GFS has zero chance of verifying.

[Tom]

0z Euro...trended better IMO...more juiced also...

[Clinton]

12z Euro Control stayed the same but the difference between the GEFS and EPS is crazy at such a short range.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro ensemble is screaming at Iowans to ignore the GFS.

[bud2380]

39 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro ensemble is screaming at Iowans to ignore the GFS.

51 members and maybe one or two get snow as far north as Cedar Rapids.  

[tStacsh]

 "potential may be increasing"  10" mean GFS   6" mean Euro.  Not far off.  I still expect the GFS to trend slightly south.  

First real mention from GRR:

- MID-WEEK STORM     ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON FORECAST DETAILS INDICATED BY   ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT   IS TO FIND A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PRECIP   TOTALS, WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD TRANSLATE TO RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO   0.75 WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ON THURSDAY.   THE GFS MEAN IS CLOSER TO 10 INCHES, WHILE THE ECMWF IS AROUND 6   INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE   GFS, ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS.     THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR SOME ICING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM   RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT DETAILS ON THIS ARE INHERENTLY   EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN SNOW TOTALS.     IN SUMMARY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 5 INCHES   ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND   THURSDAY EVENING MAY BE INCREASING.

[tStacsh]

FWIW the Icon has shifted the snow 300 miles north in 18 hours of runs to split the GFS and the Euro.   Nam has aligned with the GFS.  The potential is certainly increasing for a SMI snow storm.  Canadian might be the odd model out right now in terms of consensus.  

[tStacsh]

NAM a little weaker and south a tick from previous run.  

[GDR]

Gfs should start to follow soon.

[winterfreak]

Drastically cut precip north of KC. Carbon copy of the last storm. Waiting for GFS to confirm…

[Clinton]

18z NAM looks very close to the GHD-3 storm

[mlgamer]

Topeka NWS continues to favor the more southern guidance in this afternoon's AFD, which means less snow for MBY of course. (We'll see!)

"The second concern throughout the forecast period arrives late
Wednesday into Thursday as the aforementioned midlevel trough ejects
from the southwest US. Substantial differences amongst deterministic
and ensemble guidance remains with the strength, track, and timing
of the trough axis. For this forecast period, have continued to
leverage a weaker and more-southern track for the midlevel trough
and associated surface low track. This scenario would keep the
highest snowfall totals mainly southeast of the area. These details
will certainly need to be monitored through the coming days."

[bud2380]

GFS coming in further south.  Not anything like the other models, but south from 12z.  Not by a lot, but in my area even a small shift south will make a huge difference. 

[bud2380]

Well I may stand corrected.  The SLP was a touch south, but the defo band of snow didn't really shift south with it.  Still looks pretty similar.  

[bud2380]

Looks like it did shift a county or so south in the end.  It absolutely destroys my backyard, but just 20 miles to the north totals are cut in about a fourth.  So the cutoff is severe.  

 

[bud2380]

Close up Kuchera

 

 

Compared to 12z

[bud2380]

No drastic change on the GEFS.  

 

[Clinton]

Current thinking from EAX is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.  I like the talk of thundersnow.

Models are differing a bit thereafter, but surface cold front is
expected to work south through the northern and central Missouri
Wednesday night into Thursday.  ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with
the push of cold air than GFS/NAM, but 12Z solutions have come a bit
closer on a consensus.  Expect rain to transition to sleet, before
transitioning to snow Thursday morning. With coordination with WPC,
sided with a GFS/ECMWF blend for this forecast.  Am most concerned
about 09-18Z time frame Thursday when strong 800mb frontogenetic
forcing develops across the area. Equivalent potential vorticity above
this frontogenetic forcing is negative in the 12-18Z time frame
Thursday, indicating the potential for slantwise convection and
thundersnow. Tempered back QPF amounts some from GFS (which produces
well over 1"/6 hr in liquid QPF), but this still seems to be the
time frame to focus on as upper level trough approaches.  By 18Z
Thursday, upper wave is expected to quickly lift to the northeast
effectively shutting down the lift across the region.

 

[Stacsh]

I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties south.  I’m ok with that.