Jump to content

2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 686
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Jayhawker85
Jayhawker85

Heavy band is now over Lawrence and it’s coming down pretty good! Lots of wind blowing bringing down visibility.  definitely enjoying this snow day!

Clinton
Clinton

Close call but the dry slot will miss me to the south by about 10 miles.

mlgamer
mlgamer

We have a poor man's blizzard underway here...not epic, but still not bad. Have a solid 2+" now. (Hope everyone can view this)     20220217_084212.mp4

Posted Images

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

@ KC folks and @Clinton @clintbeed1993...you guys are looking great after today's runs.  I expected to see the models to look more like the ensembles for today's 12z suite.  You cannot discount the consistency of the GEFS that have been leading the way with this storm.  Even the EPS is playing catchup...sometimes you gotta give the GFS/GEFS credit sniffing out a storm and esp when its been locked on a track for so many days.  

Trends are your friend....KC is in a great spot where the defo band sets up....look at the grouping of the ensemble members...great set up!  I think its fair to say we have been waiting for a storm track like this all season...too bad so much rain gets wasted on the front end....

2.gif

 

1.gif

 

Tonight's 0z EPS is slowly but surely trending towards the GEFS...the GFS/GEFS are going to score a coupe with this storm IMHO.  The model has handled this system quite good at a far distance (Day 5+) and now inside D5 the Euro is playing catchup.   

Nice look for KC peeps and N MO...

2.png 

3.png

 

Uptick in some heavy hits showing up on the ensemble members...

4.png

 

5.png

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I'm liking the trends in the modeling of ejecting the 500mb vortex out into the TX Panhandle region as the SLP deepens and strengthens.  This is right where the LRC's "slot" developed way back in OCT/NOV...we're finally seeing the pattern cycle and produce a true winter storm scenario.  I'm also seeing a slight slowing trend and a neg tilt of the system.  Hopefully today's 12z suite we see a more pronounced defo band.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tom said:

@ KC folks and @Clinton @clintbeed1993...you guys are looking great after today's runs.  I expected to see the models to look more like the ensembles for today's 12z suite.  You cannot discount the consistency of the GEFS that have been leading the way with this storm.  Even the EPS is playing catchup...sometimes you gotta give the GFS/GEFS credit sniffing out a storm and esp when its been locked on a track for so many days.  

Trends are your friend....KC is in a great spot where the defo band sets up....look at the grouping of the ensemble members...great set up!  I think its fair to say we have been waiting for a storm track like this all season...too bad so much rain gets wasted on the front end....

2.gif

 

1.gif

 

Tonight's 0z EPS is slowly but surely trending towards the GEFS...the GFS/GEFS are going to score a coupe with this storm IMHO.  The model has handled this system quite good at a far distance (Day 5+) and now inside D5 the Euro is playing catchup.   

Nice look for KC peeps and N MO...

2.png 

3.png

 

Uptick in some heavy hits showing up on the ensemble members...

4.png

 

5.png

 

Euro control still has the heavy band about 100 miles further south compared to the GEFS.  Big big difference for my place..I'd feel a lot better being in KC for this.  Will be interesting considering how rock solid the GFS has been for several days, which absolutely blasts me. Will it score the coupe or fall embarrassingly on it's face? LET'S FIND OUT

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mlgamer Experienced

mlgamer

Posted
Posted

So here we are roughly 48 hrs from the peak of the event for MBY and everything is up in the air. No watches have been issued and my point forecast now includes the dreaded winter mix. The GFS/NAM camp have a monster storm here while the Euro/CMC camp have me riding on the usual edge. So Hope tells me this will be a good one while Experience says this will be another disappointment. Rinse and repeat...lol

  • Like 3

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

So here we are roughly 48 hrs from the peak of the event for MBY and everything is up in the air. No watches have been issued and my point forecast now includes the dreaded winter mix. The GFS/NAM camp have a monster storm here while the Euro/CMC camp have me riding on the usual edge. So Hope tells me this will be a good one while Experience says this will be another disappointment. Rinse and repeat...lol

6z Euro looking better for you.

1645182000-BTCQNOb1QvQ.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Euro still south.  Been so steady.  Gonna win this one. Gfs trending south of me now as well.   I’m glad.  Don’t want a snow storm.   Over amped gfs and nam always wrong here.  

 

gfs has been just as steady and the euro has actually slowly moved NORTH. Not sure what you're looking at

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

I'am outta of the game-- but the Euro has moved more N than the GFS has moved S, its not even close. Until.....

It sure seems DMX going with GFS based on their graphics above.

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted
23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EC is further north, looks like the Euro is giving way to the GEFS and KC will be the target.

1645142400-wM8fbTM2cr0.png

1645142400-LXNG2nuhFmM.png

1645142400-TASDmNc1gRY.png

1645142400-SFVp6Z5eNBI.png

Yup, it’s obvious EURO/EPS is playing catch-up.  I like the battle shaping up between the American 🇺🇸 vs European

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

12z NAM shows it ripping here just after lunch time on Thursday...hope these trends hold as it will be a nice daytime snowstorm...with temps in the mid-20's and strong NNE during the majority of the snow fall, I'd imagine snow ratios to be on the order of 12:1-14:1...this would also be the first storm that looks to show a trowel-like feature on radar wrapping in thunderstorms into the cold sector.  We have not seen this for pretty much the entire season.

24-hour qpf nearing 1.00" for a lot of N IL/SE IA...this would be the biggest snowfall of the season for many in IL...

qpf_024h.us_mw.png

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

NAM is way north.

At first I inadvertently was looking at the 6z run and I'm like, what are you talking about, LOL.  What a pleasant surprise.  Although I do fairly well on this run of the NAM, I really need another 50 miles north to make things really interesting. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MKEstorm Enthusiast

MKEstorm

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

At first I inadvertently was looking at the 6z run and I'm like, what are you talking about, LOL.  What a pleasant surprise.  Although I do fairly well on this run of the NAM, I really need another 50 miles north to make things really interesting. 

Ya, another bump north would be nice!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wheezer Contributor

Wheezer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I'd hate to be on the southern edge of the snow.  Looks like a LOT of sleet, mix precip.  I'm confident where I'm at it will be mostly snow.  Looks like 20-30 miles south of me will see the best accumulations.  Another close one.  

And for the northern edge there will be a sharp cut-off from the heavy snow axis to almost nothing in a matter of miles.  Tons of dry air just to the north

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tStacsh Mentor

tStacsh

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Wheezer said:

And for the northern edge there will be a sharp cut-off from the heavy snow axis to almost nothing in a matter of miles.  Tons of dry air just to the north

True.  It's like everyone posting is on the line of rain, heavy snow, no snow or sleet lol.  What I have going for me is that snow tends to over shoot models north by 15-25 miles no matter what, even the day of the event.  Always seems that the snow shield, even if light,  goes north a little.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

RGEM remains south.  

Way south and weaker, especially as it moves east.

image.thumb.png.12bfd7d8a56345870b85703b517f4053.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

ICON is way south, ICON nudge north, ICON is still way south, ICON just coming in, still way south of the GFS. (last 3 days)

12Z ICON, boom, right in line with the GFS and NAM, smashes KC with heavy snow!!!

Models playing catch up

12z ICON right in line with the GEFS

icon_asnow_ncus_24.png

1645164000-Q32u21v87LU.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 6998

      West Coast Sports Talk and Other Banter

      Lakers will get destroyed by the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs.
      Anti Marine Layer in West of the Rockies
    2. 1721

      April 2024 Weather in the PNW

      If its any consolation... the "drought" prone areas are generally related to mountain snow and its really hard to make up mountain snow deficits in May regardless of the pattern.
      • 1
      • Sun
      TT-SEA in West of the Rockies
    3. 163

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

      Pretty crazy that over the course of the 160 miles between us you can go from just 57% of YTD precip (Omaha) to 109% of YTD precip (Sioux Falls). You've been awfully close to getting in on the action but storms seem to continuously crap the bed at the last second in your area. Sure hope you can get precip back on track soon!
      hawkstwelve in East of the Rockies
    4. 163

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

      Fingers crossed this pans out, we are least getting some moisture this week here in Eastern Nebraska - however it hasn’t been enough to put any type of dent in this lingering drought. So far this week I am still under a half inch rain between two systems that were forecast to drop double or triple that amount. Would be nice to close out April and start of May with some consistent moisture to turn things around.
      Bryan1117 in East of the Rockies
    5. 163

      April 2024 Observations and Discussion

      With the latest rainfall we have received, we are now 109% above average on YTD precip, currently standing at 5.2 inches. We are already approaching our normal rainfall for April - currently at 2.36 with the average being 3 inches. Most models show us getting another inch or so of precip over the next 10 days so we should end up above normal for April as well. Assuming that pans out, this will be our first above normal precip month since January. On the temperature side, we are running at almost +7 on the month. This will be the ninth month in a row of above normal temperatures as our last below normal month was July of last year (-0.4). The closest we have had to a below normal month in that time span was January which came in at +0.3. Otherwise, we have been running anywhere between +2.3 to +13.4 for each month since last summer. And if it wasn't for last July's barely below normal departure, you'd have to go all the way back to March of 2023 to find a solidly below normal month (-7.5). In other words, we have been on quite the warm stretch for a while now.
      hawkstwelve in East of the Rockies
×
×
  • Create New...