winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 EURO precip: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 @ KC folks and @Clinton @clintbeed1993...you guys are looking great after today's runs. I expected to see the models to look more like the ensembles for today's 12z suite. You cannot discount the consistency of the GEFS that have been leading the way with this storm. Even the EPS is playing catchup...sometimes you gotta give the GFS/GEFS credit sniffing out a storm and esp when its been locked on a track for so many days. Trends are your friend....KC is in a great spot where the defo band sets up....look at the grouping of the ensemble members...great set up! I think its fair to say we have been waiting for a storm track like this all season...too bad so much rain gets wasted on the front end.... Tonight's 0z EPS is slowly but surely trending towards the GEFS...the GFS/GEFS are going to score a coupe with this storm IMHO. The model has handled this system quite good at a far distance (Day 5+) and now inside D5 the Euro is playing catchup. Nice look for KC peeps and N MO... Uptick in some heavy hits showing up on the ensemble members... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I'm liking the trends in the modeling of ejecting the 500mb vortex out into the TX Panhandle region as the SLP deepens and strengthens. This is right where the LRC's "slot" developed way back in OCT/NOV...we're finally seeing the pattern cycle and produce a true winter storm scenario. I'm also seeing a slight slowing trend and a neg tilt of the system. Hopefully today's 12z suite we see a more pronounced defo band. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Tom said: @ KC folks and @Clinton @clintbeed1993...you guys are looking great after today's runs. I expected to see the models to look more like the ensembles for today's 12z suite. You cannot discount the consistency of the GEFS that have been leading the way with this storm. Even the EPS is playing catchup...sometimes you gotta give the GFS/GEFS credit sniffing out a storm and esp when its been locked on a track for so many days. Trends are your friend....KC is in a great spot where the defo band sets up....look at the grouping of the ensemble members...great set up! I think its fair to say we have been waiting for a storm track like this all season...too bad so much rain gets wasted on the front end.... Tonight's 0z EPS is slowly but surely trending towards the GEFS...the GFS/GEFS are going to score a coupe with this storm IMHO. The model has handled this system quite good at a far distance (Day 5+) and now inside D5 the Euro is playing catchup. Nice look for KC peeps and N MO... Uptick in some heavy hits showing up on the ensemble members... Euro control still has the heavy band about 100 miles further south compared to the GEFS. Big big difference for my place..I'd feel a lot better being in KC for this. Will be interesting considering how rock solid the GFS has been for several days, which absolutely blasts me. Will it score the coupe or fall embarrassingly on it's face? LET'S FIND OUT 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 06z NAM holding steady...10:1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I got 6% for 2". So your telling me there is a chance? 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS finally goes south! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 6z GFS shrank the snow field some 6z ICON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 6z GEFS less juices this morning, still good for KC, Chicago, Mich. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Looks like we all have a chance to see some snow down here. Hopefully @clintbeed1993and the KC guys get hit big, I got more than my fair share the last time they need a big snow. Here's EAX take. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 So here we are roughly 48 hrs from the peak of the event for MBY and everything is up in the air. No watches have been issued and my point forecast now includes the dreaded winter mix. The GFS/NAM camp have a monster storm here while the Euro/CMC camp have me riding on the usual edge. So Hope tells me this will be a good one while Experience says this will be another disappointment. Rinse and repeat...lol 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, mlgamer said: So here we are roughly 48 hrs from the peak of the event for MBY and everything is up in the air. No watches have been issued and my point forecast now includes the dreaded winter mix. The GFS/NAM camp have a monster storm here while the Euro/CMC camp have me riding on the usual edge. So Hope tells me this will be a good one while Experience says this will be another disappointment. Rinse and repeat...lol 6z Euro looking better for you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Euro still south. Been so steady. Gonna win this one. Gfs trending south of me now as well. I’m glad. Don’t want a snow storm. Over amped gfs and nam always wrong here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 06Z Euro still well S of GFS. amazing that this system has been onshore for 18-24 hours and still shows a wide range of outcomes-- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Safe bet that nothing to a few flakes fall in this area! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Euro still south. Been so steady. Gonna win this one. Gfs trending south of me now as well. I’m glad. Don’t want a snow storm. Over amped gfs and nam always wrong here. gfs has been just as steady and the euro has actually slowly moved NORTH. Not sure what you're looking at 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I'am outta of the game-- but the Euro has moved more N than the GFS has moved S, its not even close. Until..... It sure seems DMX going with GFS based on their graphics above. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 EC is further north, looks like the Euro is giving way to the GEFS and KC will be the target. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, Clinton said: EC is further north, looks like the Euro is giving way to the GEFS and KC will be the target. Yup, it’s obvious EURO/EPS is playing catch-up. I like the battle shaping up between the American vs European 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said: gfs has been just as steady and the euro has actually slowly moved NORTH. Not sure what you're looking at started south trend last run. I know it's minor, but still there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Lezaks current thinking on the storm for the KC, he mentions convection which could really increase totals. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 HRRR goes out to 48 hours....looks like its shaping up to mirror the GFS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 NAM is way north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 NAM is similar to 0z GFS so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z NAM shows it ripping here just after lunch time on Thursday...hope these trends hold as it will be a nice daytime snowstorm...with temps in the mid-20's and strong NNE during the majority of the snow fall, I'd imagine snow ratios to be on the order of 12:1-14:1...this would also be the first storm that looks to show a trowel-like feature on radar wrapping in thunderstorms into the cold sector. We have not seen this for pretty much the entire season. 24-hour qpf nearing 1.00" for a lot of N IL/SE IA...this would be the biggest snowfall of the season for many in IL... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, winterfreak said: NAM is way north. At first I inadvertently was looking at the 6z run and I'm like, what are you talking about, LOL. What a pleasant surprise. Although I do fairly well on this run of the NAM, I really need another 50 miles north to make things really interesting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: At first I inadvertently was looking at the 6z run and I'm like, what are you talking about, LOL. What a pleasant surprise. Although I do fairly well on this run of the NAM, I really need another 50 miles north to make things really interesting. Ya, another bump north would be nice! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I'd hate to be on the southern edge of the snow. Looks like a LOT of sleet, mix precip. I'm confident where I'm at it will be mostly snow. Looks like 20-30 miles south of me will see the best accumulations. Another close one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Wow-- home from work and what a jump N on the NAM and 3KM--- 50-75 miles in 6 hours in IA?? This close to the event? Unreal. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 3k NAM FV3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 RGEM remains south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, tStacsh said: I'd hate to be on the southern edge of the snow. Looks like a LOT of sleet, mix precip. I'm confident where I'm at it will be mostly snow. Looks like 20-30 miles south of me will see the best accumulations. Another close one. And for the northern edge there will be a sharp cut-off from the heavy snow axis to almost nothing in a matter of miles. Tons of dry air just to the north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 9z SREF Mean with a huge jump north from the 3z run. 3z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Wheezer said: And for the northern edge there will be a sharp cut-off from the heavy snow axis to almost nothing in a matter of miles. Tons of dry air just to the north True. It's like everyone posting is on the line of rain, heavy snow, no snow or sleet lol. What I have going for me is that snow tends to over shoot models north by 15-25 miles no matter what, even the day of the event. Always seems that the snow shield, even if light, goes north a little. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: RGEM remains south. Way south and weaker, especially as it moves east. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 ICON is way south, ICON nudge north, ICON is still way south, ICON just coming in, still way south of the GFS. (last 3 days) 12Z ICON, boom, right in line with the GFS and NAM, smashes KC with heavy snow!!! Models playing catch up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 No one posted NAM 10:1- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 The model trends have been favorable this morning for a good track for MBY. I still have concerns this will be a sleetfest especially at the front end of the event. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: ICON is way south, ICON nudge north, ICON is still way south, ICON just coming in, still way south of the GFS. (last 3 days) 12Z ICON, boom, right in line with the GFS and NAM, smashes KC with heavy snow!!! Models playing catch up 12z ICON right in line with the GEFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 So is a significant ice event still in play for folks south of the city? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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