winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 It’s easy to fall in love with raw snowfall map outputs…but the trends aren’t very good right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 (edited) 18z GEFS with a little south shift. Edited February 15, 2022 by Clinton 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 This is a classic case of not going with one or the other but a blend or meeting in the middle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 47 minutes ago, BrianJK said: Whenever the GFS and Euro are in 2 different camps, it’s almost always better to side with the EURO. Just a much better model overall that handles the moving variables better and has a far superior track record. It is a statistical fact that inside D5 it is supposed to be better. Some storms, However, it doesn’t do as good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Sweet! Hopefully, the cold air rushes in quickly enough b4 the main-show. Imho, I think it does. It might start off as rain, but as temps tumble quickly, we go to a hvy, windswept snowstorm. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Hahaha 18z EURO is garbage for KC. Identical to GHD III. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, Niko said: Sweet! Hopefully, the cold air rushes in quickly enough b4 the main-show. Imho, I think it does. It might start off as rain, but as temps tumble quickly, we go to a hvy, windswept snowstorm. Hope you do well. I’m glad I’m out of it. Let’s go spring! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z Euro. Looks like a south shift. I then see our dry slot and wish we could see 1”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Not today say's the King Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 So as of right now NWI is pretty much in the bullseye on GEFS… if this verifies with the potential ice event it’s not gonna be fun.. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Remarkable how similar this is to the GHD storm. Hard to believe two storms in two weeks are gonna miss to the south. A dream month for northern MO and central IL. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 HRRR coming in hot. A touch north too. Crushes Chicago and many others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 HRRR is a blizzard for some....... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z HRRR 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Niko said: HRRR is a blizzard for some....... HRRR did well with the last storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Yerf said: HRRR did well with the last storm Yes..it did.....yr pl is looking golden for a crippling snowevent Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: Hope you do well. I’m glad I’m out of it. Let’s go spring! Actually, I think the GFS nails ur area w/ near a ft, if not more and much less to the south, but I think its the only one. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z NAM stays north 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z NAM stays north Seems to me it has shifted the orientation cuz it's quite a bit S over this way. Earlier runs were a complete whiff here, now it's giving me 6+ LOL. Anyways, Stasch thinks he's out of it (might be reverse psych thing again, who knows??) but with the h24 shift N with the last storm, he's not even close to "free and clear". DTX (maybe I finally get wind with a Clipper Friday??) Quote The greatest potential for a heavy snow event appears to be 21Z Thursday to 06Z Friday. This period will be monitored as very cold thermal profiles combined with very strong frontal forcing/UVVS could potentially lead to very efficient and heavy snowfall rates. Forecasted snow amounts could be quite underdone currently for Thursday evening. The other item to touch on in this forecast discussion is a compact clipper system that is forecasted to blast through Southeast Michigan Friday night. Very sharp and direct DCVA ahead of cold midlevel temperatures, -21C at 850mb, is expected to bring some impactful weather to Southeast Michigan. Of most concern right now is the strong wind potential with the gradient winds Friday evening and the arctic front Saturday morning. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Niko said: HRRR is a blizzard for some....... Wouldn't it be a laugher if we got nailed with a serious storm. DTX (rightfully so) playing super conservative due to last storm busting, then the real deal hits us this time. Just would be so amusing. Never try to out-guess nature. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Seems to me it has shifted the orientation cuz it's quite a bit S over this way. Earlier runs were a complete whiff here, now it's giving me 6+ LOL. Anyways, Stasch thinks he's out of it (might be reverse psych thing again, who knows??) but with the h24 shift N with the last storm, he's not even close to "free and clear". DTX (maybe I finally get wind with a Clipper Friday??) This looks so similar to the GHD storm, I don't know if it will turn out the same. That clipper looks good for ya, you look to do well over the next few days. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Hey! I'm in a WATCH! Oh, nevermind (the only Watch I get??) 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Wouldn't it be a laugher if we got nailed with a serious storm. DTX (rightfully so) playing super conservative due to last storm busting, then the real deal hits us this time. Just would be so amusing. Never try to out-guess nature. I think the rows one county up from the Indiana Ohio border are going to get nailed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I think the rows one county up from the Indiana Ohio border are going to get nailed. So, 94 corridor then? I like this from LOT's updated Watch: * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy rates of snowfall greater than one inch per hour are possible. This combined with winds gusting as high as 40 mph could result in significant visibility reductions Thursday afternoon and early evening. They heavy and wet nature of the snow could also put strain on tree limbs and power lines which may result in some power outages. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 The last sentence of IWX's weather story about the 2 Watches seems to foretell the future.. "A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect on Thursday for snow and ice accumulations." Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z GFS great run for all of us in the KC area. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GFS great run for all of us in the KC area. It’s drifting south though… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z GEFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, jaster220 said: So, 94 corridor then? I like this from LOT's updated Watch: * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy rates of snowfall greater than one inch per hour are possible. This combined with winds gusting as high as 40 mph could result in significant visibility reductions Thursday afternoon and early evening. They heavy and wet nature of the snow could also put strain on tree limbs and power lines which may result in some power outages. Yep, just like last storm. But this has some more cold air establishing before the wave of precip get's there. I think they do well. Detroit metro to the south, not so much. Looks like same old story. Sleet, dry slot etc. Can't see this going more north than showing already, but who knows. Snow shields always end up a tick more north than any model shows, but another sharp cutoff storm. I think Benton Harbor, to Kzoo to just south of Lansing - Flint is in the jackpot zone. This morning GRR had 4-8 inches as far north as northern Kent County, but that was at 11 am. They haven't updated their graphic yet. It's a wait and see, which is smart. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Whopper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GEFS That is a big shift south after days of having the heavy band about 100 miles north looks a lot like the EURO. What a joke 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: That is a big shift south after days of having the heavy band about 100 miles north looks a lot like the EURO. What a joke Alot like the last storm. Hopefully it will stop going south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 I’m already on to Next weeks storm lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Wouldn't it be a laugher if we got nailed with a serious storm. DTX (rightfully so) playing super conservative due to last storm busting, then the real deal hits us this time. Just would be so amusing. Never try to out-guess nature. Amigo, the amount of moisture that will be riding up the trailing front is abundant. This will be a very heavy snowevent along w/ strong winds and as that arctic air feeds in, it should become more powdery w blowing and drifting snow by Thursday nite. My local forecasters are calling for at least 8-10inches already , in Detroit itself. Like you said bud, can you imagine this being the real "Big One?" Oh and look out Friday Nite! But that's another story. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Per NOAA: The greatest potential for a heavy snow event appears to be 21Z Thursday to 06Z Friday. This period will be monitored as very cold thermal profiles combined with very strong frontal forcing/UVVS could potentially lead to very efficient and heavy snowfall rates. Forecasted snow amounts could be quite underdone currently for Thursday evening. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 00z Euro has drifted back south. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 The dreaded shift SE from the GEFS is the last thing I wanted to see tonight...so it begins...another repeat scenario as the GHD storm..even the 0z EPS has weakened and shifted SE... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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