GDR Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 So Chicago area is anywhere from 2-15 inches that’s awesome!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Winter Storm Warning issued: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, GDR said: So Chicago area is anywhere from 2-15 inches that’s awesome!! Based on how the winter season has gone, best guess would be on the low end and 2" is probably being generous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z CMC 15z RAP is north and a good hit for Tom two maps, one has me for 1.9 the other 20.3. I could be a meteorologists with being able to give those ranges. LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, shakjen said: two maps, one has me for 1.9 the other 20.3. I could be a meteorologists with being able to give those ranges. LOL You'd be safe to throw out the 20.3. I'm only in the 1.4" or 7" range there, and I'm expecting a dusting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 46 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z CMC 15z RAP is north and a good hit for Tom Just for giggles, the RAP nailed the N shift up here for GHD-3….it’ll be fun watching the radar…not expecting more than 3” here…stat padding snowfall the way I see it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 The thunderstorm activity in the warm sector needs to be watched tomorrow . If it becomes numerous early on, many times this can limit or lower qpf in the snowy parts of the system to the north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Cold front seems to be arriving a bit earlier. It’s already slicing thru northern and central KS now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Wheezer said: The thunderstorm activity in the warm sector needs to be watched tomorrow . If it becomes numerous early on, many times this can limit or lower qpf in the snowy parts of the system to the north I can't say enough how excited I am about severe weather season this year! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 52 minutes ago, tStacsh said: This is just a decent wave along a front with moisture. It's not some wound up bomb. And it's moving fairly quick. Those never produce the totals the models show. outside of a narrow 30-50 strip, most people will be disappointed in this event. Those that get it will be happy though. Add in the warm ground and rain ahead of it, might limit accumulations as well. As said b4 (and a huge pet peeve of mine), this torching our way into a snow(storm) is utter BS with a capital B. Totally whacked timing this winter for all but the NW flow clippers (which have actually delivered here). If things hold, I (should) score a decent WWA-level event. We'll see tho, still have another day for things to go South, literally and figuratively 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Cold front seems to be arriving a bit earlier. It’s already slicing thru northern and central KS now Yeah, I've been tracking this, too and the front has passed through STJ and Hutch so I guess it has entered NW Shawnee Co. Still 64.8 at my house but if it passes through here soon that seems about 2-3 hrs earlier than expected. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, Clinton said: Winter Storm Warning issued: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Congrats buddy! I've seen hard/quick-hitting 5" events be much more impactful than dbl-digits that took 30+ hours to fall. Hoping for a brief but dynamic hit here. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Congrats buddy! I've seen hard/quick-hitting 5" events be much more impactful than dbl-digits that took 30+ hours to fall. Hoping for a brief but dynamic hit here. Looks like my office applied the amounts from the Euro on to the track of the GFS. Maybe a little conservative my grid says 4-8. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 CAA is making progress faster than what models think. Here is DSM at 36F-- *actually 34F now with a speci report that is not showing on the hourly*--= I would expect a shift S in precip field as a result. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, Tom said: Just for giggles, the RAP nailed the N shift up here for GHD-3….it’ll be fun watching the radar…not expecting more than 3” here…stat padding snowfall the way I see it. Maybe the High Res models have a better handle on the convection portion. Globals usually tend to push the storm farther south with convection so maybe they are overcompensating for this...just a thought. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 12z Euro came NW a little, very sharp northern cut-off. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 I think there has been much bettter agreement with the track of the low from the 12z suite . Just north or along Ohio river through southern Illinois , southern Indiana, on up to about Cbus in Ohio. Chicagoland amounts look to be on the lighter side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro came NW a little, very sharp northern cut-off. North and West side of KC not looking great on here. Sharp cutoffs are no fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro came NW a little, very sharp northern cut-off. Euro upped my QPF from about .14 (00z) to about .41 on this run. A modest amount but certainly better than before. 5 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Euro upped my QPF from about .14 (00z) to about .41 on this run. A modest amount but certainly better than before. It’s finally trending in the right direction. Hopefully in the next run it will continue its NW jog 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 LOT mentions heavy snow in the early morning hours and RAP clearly shows this as well so maybe the RAP is onto something. Rain transitioning to a brief wintry mix and eventually all snow tonight and Thursday morning. Developing potential INVOF the Chicago-area sites for a brief burst of heavier snow roughly 9-13z. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z NAM: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, winterfreak said: 18z NAM: It holds the upper level storm together and doesn't shear it out. Gary mentioned this in his blog this morning, this even shows some convection SE side of KC. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z HRRR is like the NAM in a lot of ways but about 50 miles further SE. 3km NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: As said b4 (and a huge pet peeve of mine), this torching our way into a snow(storm) is utter BS with a capital B. Totally whacked timing this winter for all but the NW flow clippers (which have actually delivered here). If things hold, I (should) score a decent WWA-level event. We'll see tho, still have another day for things to go South, literally and figuratively GRR holding off on any warning for our southern counties. They are not confident in 6" in 12 hours in the sweet spot. They've been better lately so I guess it's a wait and see now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 light rain just started here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Updated forecast from EAX 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Updated forecast from EAX I think i can live with this map. But a jump 25 miles north will make me the happiest lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Updated forecast from EAX PTSD from GHD III. Almost the same exact map from that storm locally. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 This area has been hit over and over again this winter, some with massive amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch... People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch... People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done I had a 10" MEAN. Might get skunked. It's just not a good model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 GFS drying out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 48 minutes ago, tStacsh said: I had a 10" MEAN. Might get skunked. It's just not a good model. The SREF’s were showing higher amounts also the day before as well. It’s not just the GFS/GEFS but a whole host of other models that were showing higher amounts to validate a high SREF mean. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 Emotions are running quite high lately… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said: I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch... People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done Ya, it will be hard to trust it after this for sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said: I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch... People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done Agree, gfs had towns like Bloomfield, ottumwa, Fairfield in. 7 to 20" snow for 3 or 4 days. Looks like now we may not get 1 inch. A total joke 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: Why does the orange seem to skip right over KC? Seems silly to try to predict something with that much specificity. Good question and I prefer their probability maps which by the way look good for KC. https://www.weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 16, 2022 Report Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said: I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch... People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done GFS did the same thing to Chicago. It has a big problem in the 2-5 day range (could be it's warm bias) and it shouldn't be that bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Luv this; Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 344 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170900- /O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.220217T1500Z-220218T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0002.220217T2000Z-220218T0800Z/ St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee- Monroe- Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 344 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. * WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will become very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the Thursday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of freezing rain and sleet is possible in the afternoon, mainly south of I-94, otherwise heavy snow will develop in the late afternoon, with peak snowfall rates occuring between 5-10 PM Thursday evening. Snow then looks to taper off around and just after midnight. Some blowing and drifting of snow will occur Thursday night with northerly winds gusting up around 20 mph. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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