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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

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DTX's morning AFD is a booklet. Takes 5 or 6 scroll-downs to read it all. Thus I've got a couple snip-its here:

Would be nice if the higher end qpf targeted mby this time around.

Quote

The forecast appears to be in great shape based off the 12z NAM/13z
RAP, as upper level wave and associated surface low tracks northeast
out of the central/lower Mississippi River Valley and moves through
the area this evening. Did not see any glaring issues with model
initializations compared to 12z raobs. Mid level forcing/deformation
to track through most of southeast Michigan 21-3z Friday. Excellent
lift/Omega up around 15 -ubars indicated at the 600 MB layer, with 3
to 3.5 g/kg of specific humidity to work, with the M-59 corridor to
I-94 corridor looking to be in the sweet spot. 12 hr QPF values from
18z Thursday-6z Friday forecasted to be half an inch to 0.8+ inches
in the warned area.

Point of potential concern is the upper level pattern as the
longwave trough digging across the Front Range pivots east Thursday
afternoon into the central Plains. High consensus across 00Z runs
tonight showing the intensification of the northerly stream jet over
the upper Great Lakes as well as a strengthening of the southern
stream with a ~150kt jet streak developing across the mid-
Mississippi valley. By 00Z Thursday evening, jets are positioned in
such a way that southern half of SE MI (south of I-69) resides in
the right entrance-left exit region for each streak. Feature is
relatively short-lived as the streams merge by 03-06Z however this
few hour window supports rates exceeding 1 inch per hour- more on
precip type later.

6" would be biggest of the season for me. Hoping for the headlines to verify this time for me. It is interesting that I've now had more Watch/Warnings here than I got with GRR in like the last 7 winters, lol. I guess the same would've been true back in Marshall as that office has actually gone Watch->Warn for Calhoun Cnty. Should've been several more warning headlines over those 7 winters tho.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I want to file an official complaint with the weather gods!  
It’s looking like the DFW area is going to get skunked in the rain department.   
 

Now they’re saying we have a 40% this coming Thursday. Really ??!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Seems high.  Where'd you see that?  Nevermind.  I see it on the NWS snow report page.   Still seems high.  But it's blowing around quite a bit.  So tough tell. 

Many places on the west and southwest side of town is reporting 8-11 inches right before the last heavy band moved thru

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1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Many places on the west and southwest side of town is reporting 8-11 inches right before the last heavy band moved thru

Very happy you and everyone else in the city are getting large amounts it was diffidently your turn.  For the last hour snow had tapered to flurries here but is starting to pick up again. Hoping this last band can add an inch or 2 to the 5.5 I have now.

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10 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Hard to measure but it looks like I finished somewhere around 4". Missed out on the bigger totals, but happy with what I got.

I thought you’d do better than that. Crazy how localized these storms/amounts can be. Just 70 miles east there’s a widespread 6-10 inches or so.

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8 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I thought you’d do better than that. Crazy how localized these storms/amounts can be. Just 70 miles east there’s a widespread 6-10 inches or so.

Topeka NWS official measurement is 4.5" and a NWS employee reported 2.3" not too far from me. Some of that 6-10" is only 25 miles to the east of me. So it can be hit and miss for sure.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like this storm will end with a bang, huge flakes just puking snow!

This one has good to great jet dynamics going for it. This could over-perform around here based on what I'm seeing. Snow started here maybe an hour ago? DTX's update graphic has added an inch across the board, and I see some 8+ shaded blobs just to my SW. All good stuff. Glad you're getting in on this action after it was looking like an ice-fest the other day.

 

20220217 DTX Snowfall Map-2 pm.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This one has good to great jet dynamics going for it. This could over-perform around here based on what I'm seeing. Snow started here maybe an hour ago? DTX's update graphic has added an inch across the board, and I see some 8+ shaded blobs just to my SW. All good stuff. Glad you're getting in on this action after it was looking like an ice-fest the other day.

 

20220217 DTX Snowfall Map-2 pm.png

Thanks it certainly over preformed for KC.  The airport (which is located on the north side of the city) set a new daily record.

Snow is done at Kansas City (MCI) and the record total for the day is 7.0" breaking the old daily record of 6.0" set back in 1893.
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Legit rippage currently! 😀

And to look at the surface, it sure seems like a longer period of decent SN is on tap! Niko was right, the cold came in much more seriously this time.

image.png.400ace6849f354d11bca6a2793a5d27c.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This one has good to great jet dynamics going for it. This could over-perform around here based on what I'm seeing. Snow started here maybe an hour ago? DTX's update graphic has added an inch across the board, and I see some 8+ shaded blobs just to my SW. All good stuff. Glad you're getting in on this action after it was looking like an ice-fest the other day.

 

20220217 DTX Snowfall Map-2 pm.png

HRRR and RAP both showing 8 inch totals for the Detroit metro.  Good luck!

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LOT’s update stated that even though 12z guidance was SE with the heavier snows over N IL, current conditions indicate that the F-GEN axis is across NW IL shifting the heavy band N instead.  It is snowing rather nicely with the winds blowing the snow sideways and off the roofs.  The radar looks great for at least a few more hours of this stuff!

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

LOT’s update stated that even though 12z guidance was SE with the heavier snows over N IL, current conditions indicate that the F-GEN axis is across NW IL shifting the heavy band N instead.  It is snowing rather nicely with the winds blowing the snow sideways and off the roofs.  The radar looks great for at least a few more hours of this stuff!

Yep, coming down much harder than I expected. 

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35 minutes ago, Tom said:

Nice snowfall at the moment…

 

Pretty much what it looks like around here too.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Underneath a band of heavy snow!  Easily 1/4 mi biz and esp with the wind!

 

This storm (all 2 hrs) is already hands down better than GHD-3

btw, where's Stasch? Oh yeah, enjoying his non-snowstorm 😆

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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