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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

As if things weren't complicated enough the Euro Control takes a sizable jump SE also weaker from 6z.

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Mean

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@Clinton I’m sure you are hoping the Euro is right while the rest of us in the area is hoping the Nam and GFS is right. One of these models is going to have to give sooner than later for the right solution 

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12 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

@Clinton I’m sure you are hoping the Euro is right while the rest of us in the area is hoping the Nam and GFS is right. One of these models is going to have to give sooner than later for the right solution 

If it's like the last storm we'll be waiting until the 12z runs tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Seems the 12z models as a whole weren't much help. I can easily see a track that just misses me to the southeast but can't say anything for sure.

The afternoon AFD should be a good read, the last 2 storms have been brutal for the KC and Topeka offices.

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I think a lot of the shift is that models have narrowed the deform band ,  a very long but very narrow axis.  With very little snow on either side of that heavy axis.  Which is why offices are hesitant to issue anything . A very small shift will wreak havoc on a forecast 

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GFS is so bad.  Long range is even worse.  Euro gonna win, thankfully, I don't want the snow.  10" mean on the GEFS yesterday.  lol   I hope we get shut out.  GRR is smart for not issuing any watches.   This is gonna be a slop fest dud except for a 20 mile band in SMI.

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Winter Storm Watch

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.
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LOT with a Winter Stom watch. Counties along wisc not included. 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...A period of freezing rain and sleet transitioning over to
  wet, heavy falling snow possible. Ice accumulations of one to
  two tenths and total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana
  mainly along and south of I-88 and including much of the
  Chicago metro.

* WHEN...Freezing rain and sleet late Wednesday night through
  Thursday morning. Snow and blowing snow Thursday morning through
  early Thursday evening.
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38 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

GFS is so bad.  Long range is even worse.  Euro gonna win, thankfully, I don't want the snow.  10" mean on the GEFS yesterday.  lol   I hope we get shut out.  GRR is smart for not issuing any watches.   This is gonna be a slop fest dud except for a 20 mile band in SMI.

Believing in the GFS (ESPECIALLY over the Euro) is like believing in Santa.  Seems so magical that you hope it’s real, but in the end reality eventually sets in.  It’s just funny because if the Euro and GFS were flipped, all you’d be hearing is how the Euro must be trusted as opposed to i think it’ll trend better… Goes to show how much personal bias can really cloud ones judgment. 

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1 minute ago, BrianJK said:

Believing in the GFS (ESPECIALLY over the Euro) is like believing in Santa.  Seems so magical that you hope it’s real, but in the end reality eventually sets in.  It’s just funny because if the Euro and GFS were flipped, all you’d be hearing is how the Euro must be trusted as opposed to i think it’ll trend better… Goes to show how much personal bias can really cloud ones judgment. 

Brian, how can you say that when the Euro was not even close to the current track a few days ago?  Sure, the GFS could making adjustments now that we are getting closer to game time.  It did the same for GHD storm.  

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Brian, how can you say that when the Euro was not even close to the current track a few days ago?  Sure, the GFS could making adjustments now that we are getting closer to game time.  It did the same for GHD storm.  

Whenever the GFS and Euro are in 2 different camps, it’s almost always better to side with the EURO.  Just a much better model overall that handles the moving variables better and has a far superior track record.  

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