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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

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47 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

Whenever the GFS and Euro are in 2 different camps, it’s almost always better to side with the EURO.  Just a much better model overall that handles the moving variables better and has a far superior track record.  

It is a statistical fact that inside D5 it is supposed to be better.  Some storms, However, it doesn’t do as good.

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Sweet!

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022021518/057/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Hopefully, the cold air rushes in quickly enough b4 the main-show. Imho, I think it does. It might start off as rain, but as temps tumble quickly, we go to a hvy, windswept snowstorm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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31 minutes ago, Niko said:

Sweet!

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022021518/057/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Hopefully, the cold air rushes in quickly enough b4 the main-show. Imho, I think it does. It might start off as rain, but as temps tumble quickly, we go to a hvy, windswept snowstorm.

Hope you do well.  I’m glad I’m out of it.  Let’s go spring!  

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2 minutes ago, Yerf said:

HRRR did well with the last storm

Yes..it did.....yr pl is looking golden for a crippling snowevent

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Hope you do well.  I’m glad I’m out of it.  Let’s go spring!  

Actually, I think the GFS nails ur area w/ near a ft, if not more and much less to the south, but I think its the only one.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z NAM stays north

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Seems to me it has shifted the orientation cuz it's quite a bit S over this way. Earlier runs were a complete whiff here, now it's giving me 6+ LOL. 

Anyways, Stasch thinks he's out of it (might be reverse psych thing again, who knows??) but with the h24 shift N with the last storm, he's not even close to "free and clear". 

DTX (maybe I finally get wind with a Clipper Friday??)

Quote

The greatest potential for a heavy snow event appears to be 21Z
Thursday to 06Z Friday. This period will be monitored as very cold
thermal profiles combined with very strong frontal forcing/UVVS
could potentially lead to very efficient and heavy snowfall rates.
Forecasted snow amounts could be quite underdone currently for
Thursday evening.

The other item to touch on in this forecast discussion is a compact
clipper system that is forecasted to blast through Southeast
Michigan Friday night. Very sharp and direct DCVA ahead of cold
midlevel temperatures, -21C at 850mb, is expected to bring some
impactful weather to Southeast Michigan. Of most concern right now
is the strong wind potential with the gradient winds Friday evening
and the arctic front Saturday morning.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

HRRR is a blizzard for some.......

Wouldn't it be a laugher if we got nailed with a serious storm. DTX (rightfully so) playing super conservative due to last storm busting, then the real deal hits us this time. Just would be so amusing. Never try to out-guess nature. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Seems to me it has shifted the orientation cuz it's quite a bit S over this way. Earlier runs were a complete whiff here, now it's giving me 6+ LOL. 

Anyways, Stasch thinks he's out of it (might be reverse psych thing again, who knows??) but with the h24 shift N with the last storm, he's not even close to "free and clear". 

DTX (maybe I finally get wind with a Clipper Friday??)

 

This looks so similar to the GHD storm, I don't know if it will turn out the same.  That clipper looks good for ya, you look to do well over the next few days.

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Hey! I'm in a WATCH! Oh, nevermind 😝

image.png.62a9d05a7cf22d73bd1d4b2bae23a58b.png

(the only Watch I get??)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Wouldn't it be a laugher if we got nailed with a serious storm. DTX (rightfully so) playing super conservative due to last storm busting, then the real deal hits us this time. Just would be so amusing. Never try to out-guess nature. 

I think the rows one county up from the Indiana Ohio border are going to get nailed.   

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4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I think the rows one county up from the Indiana Ohio border are going to get nailed.   

So, 94 corridor then?

I like this from LOT's updated Watch:

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy rates of snowfall greater than one inch per hour are possible. This combined with winds gusting as high as 40 mph could result in significant visibility reductions Thursday afternoon and early evening. They heavy and wet nature of the snow could also put strain on tree limbs and power lines which may result in some power outages.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The last sentence of IWX's weather story about the 2 Watches seems to foretell the future..

"A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect on Thursday for snow and ice accumulations."

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

So, 94 corridor then?

I like this from LOT's updated Watch:

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy rates of snowfall greater than one inch per hour are possible. This combined with winds gusting as high as 40 mph could result in significant visibility reductions Thursday afternoon and early evening. They heavy and wet nature of the snow could also put strain on tree limbs and power lines which may result in some power outages.

Yep, just like last storm.  But this has some more cold air establishing before the wave of precip get's there.  I think they do well.  Detroit metro to the south, not so much.  Looks like same old story.  Sleet, dry slot etc.   

Can't see this going more north than showing already, but who knows.  Snow shields always end up a tick more north than any model shows, but another sharp cutoff storm.    I think Benton Harbor, to Kzoo to just south of Lansing - Flint is in the jackpot zone.  

This morning GRR had 4-8 inches as far north as northern Kent County, but that was at 11 am.  They haven't updated their graphic yet.  It's a wait and see, which is smart.  

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Wouldn't it be a laugher if we got nailed with a serious storm. DTX (rightfully so) playing super conservative due to last storm busting, then the real deal hits us this time. Just would be so amusing. Never try to out-guess nature. 

Amigo, the amount of moisture that will be riding up the trailing front is abundant. This will be a very heavy snowevent along w/ strong winds and as that arctic air feeds in, it should become more powdery w blowing and drifting snow by Thursday nite. My local forecasters are calling for at least 8-10inches already , in Detroit itself. Like you said bud, can you imagine this being the real "Big One?"

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_02/image.png.ccdb84251320623c4b7820cfb21e2dad.png

Oh and look out Friday Nite! But that's another story.  😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per NOAA:

The greatest potential for a heavy snow event appears to be 21Z
Thursday to 06Z Friday. This period will be monitored as very cold
thermal profiles combined with very strong frontal forcing/UVVS
could potentially lead to very efficient and heavy snowfall rates.
Forecasted snow amounts could be quite underdone currently for
Thursday evening.
  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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