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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

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Winter Storm Warning issued:  

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.
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9 minutes ago, shakjen said:

two maps, one has me for 1.9 the other 20.3. I could be a meteorologists with being able to give those ranges. LOL

You'd be safe to throw out the 20.3.  I'm only in the 1.4" or 7" range there,   and I'm expecting a dusting.  

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46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

15z RAP is north and a good hit for Tom

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Just for giggles, the RAP nailed the N shift up here for GHD-3….it’ll be fun watching the radar…not expecting more than 3” here…stat padding snowfall the way I see it.

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1 minute ago, Wheezer said:

day2otlk.gif.f2cfb981d71d6eaa8a71ab2965c3cbe5.gif

 

The thunderstorm activity in the warm sector needs to be watched tomorrow .  If it becomes numerous early on, many times this can limit or lower qpf in the snowy parts of the system to the north

I can't say enough how excited I am about severe weather season this year!

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52 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

This is just a decent wave along a front with moisture.  It's not some wound up bomb.  And it's moving fairly quick.  Those never produce the totals the models show.   outside of a narrow 30-50 strip, most people will be disappointed in this event.   Those that get it will be happy though.  

 

Add in the warm ground and rain ahead of it, might limit accumulations as well. 

As said b4 (and a huge pet peeve of mine), this torching our way into a snow(storm) is utter BS with a capital B.

Totally whacked timing this winter for all but the NW flow clippers (which have actually delivered here).

If things hold, I (should) score a decent WWA-level event. We'll see tho, still have another day for things to go South, literally and figuratively

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Cold front seems to be arriving a bit earlier. It’s already slicing thru northern and central KS now 

Yeah, I've been tracking this, too and the front has passed through STJ and Hutch so I guess it has entered NW Shawnee Co. Still 64.8 at my house but if it passes through here soon that seems about 2-3 hrs earlier than expected.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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40 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Winter Storm Warning issued:  

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

Congrats buddy! I've seen hard/quick-hitting 5" events be much more impactful than dbl-digits that took 30+ hours to fall. Hoping for a brief but dynamic hit here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Congrats buddy! I've seen hard/quick-hitting 5" events be much more impactful than dbl-digits that took 30+ hours to fall. Hoping for a brief but dynamic hit here.

Looks like my office applied the amounts from the Euro on to the track of the GFS.  Maybe a little conservative my grid says 4-8.

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CAA is making progress faster than what models think. Here is DSM at 36F-- *actually 34F now with a speci report that is not showing on the hourly*--=  I would expect a shift S in precip field as a result.

image.thumb.png.3ae9c69376a0dd21d515425083dd37fd.pngimage.thumb.png.ea594cba31c4d9cf5d78274a8221a868.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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34 minutes ago, Tom said:

Just for giggles, the RAP nailed the N shift up here for GHD-3….it’ll be fun watching the radar…not expecting more than 3” here…stat padding snowfall the way I see it.

Maybe the High Res models have a better handle on the convection portion. Globals usually tend to push the storm farther south with convection so maybe they are overcompensating for this...just a thought.

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LOT mentions heavy snow in the early morning hours and RAP clearly shows this as well so maybe the RAP is onto something.

Rain transitioning to a brief wintry mix and eventually all snow
  tonight and Thursday morning. Developing potential INVOF the
  Chicago-area sites for a brief burst of heavier snow roughly
  9-13z.

sn10_acc.conus.png

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

As said b4 (and a huge pet peeve of mine), this torching our way into a snow(storm) is utter BS with a capital B.

Totally whacked timing this winter for all but the NW flow clippers (which have actually delivered here).

If things hold, I (should) score a decent WWA-level event. We'll see tho, still have another day for things to go South, literally and figuratively

GRR holding off on any warning for our southern counties.  They are not confident in 6" in 12 hours in the sweet spot.  They've been better lately so I guess it's a wait and see now.  

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I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch...

People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done

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7 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch...

People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done

I had a 10" MEAN.  Might get skunked.  It's just not a good model.  

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48 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I had a 10" MEAN.  Might get skunked.  It's just not a good model.  

The SREF’s were showing higher amounts also the day before as well.  It’s not just the GFS/GEFS but a whole host of other models that were showing higher amounts to validate a high SREF mean.

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1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch...

People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done

Ya, it will be hard to trust it after this for sure!

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1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch...

People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done

Agree, gfs had  towns like Bloomfield,  ottumwa, Fairfield  in. 7 to 20" snow for 3 or 4 days.   Looks like now we may not get 1 inch. A total joke

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1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I am NEVER looking at the GFS again. It had my location in the main band for 3 or 4 days. I was supposed to be getting at least 8 inches according to it. My forecast in St Joe is around 1 inch...

People, that is BAD. Absolutely unacceptable for a major model to do that poorly 72-48 hours from a storm. I am done

GFS did the same thing to Chicago.  It has a big problem in the 2-5 day range (could be it's warm bias) and it shouldn't be that bad.

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Luv this;

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
344 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170900-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.220217T1500Z-220218T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0002.220217T2000Z-220218T0800Z/
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-
Monroe-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,
Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
344 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw,
  Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Thursday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of freezing rain and sleet is
  possible in the afternoon, mainly south of I-94, otherwise heavy
  snow will develop in the late afternoon, with peak snowfall
  rates occuring between 5-10 PM Thursday evening. Snow then looks
  to taper off around and just after midnight. Some blowing and
  drifting of snow will occur Thursday night with northerly winds
  gusting up around 20 mph.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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