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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

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https://s.w-x.co/WinterStormMiles.jpg

Looks like a bullseye hit from Clinton's pl right up towards Jasters pl and mine of course (😉)

Also, I think Yerf does really good as well.

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the amounts will be close to the GHD-3 storm for us.

Ur right....almost identical

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My accumulations have just been upped to 8-12"

interCast

Thursday Afternoon - Thursday Evening

22.svg
8 - 12 in
Snow
24.svg
0.05 - 0.15 in
Ice

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the amounts will be close to the GHD-3 storm for us.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/page-47.jpg?w=632

Here ya go amigo..we are both  in the 6-12 range.

  • Snow 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Really happy for you snow fans!!!

Hope it’s a whopper!😃👍

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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@TomRooting for ya as your area looks to be really close to the hvy stuff. Come to think of it, Its funny how both storms are taking similar tracks.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Man, how awesome is this....

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2022021618/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Haha, ya beat me to the WEENIE map posting! 😮

The only map I'm saving (just in case this over-performs lol)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

@TomRooting for ya as your area looks to be really close to the hvy stuff. Come to think of it, Its funny how both storms are taking similar tracks.

Yeah, have to Tom some kudos for saying days ago (when nothing was looking like it) that this could hit almost the same places that got hit 2 weeks ago. Well, here we are.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, jaster220 said:

Haha, ya beat me to the WEENIE map posting! 😮

The only map I'm saving (just in case this over-performs lol)

This 18z NAM model means business....

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just now, Niko said:

This 18z NAM model means business....

Ikr, but so did all those pretty maps a couple weeks ago, lol. I wanna believe..

  • lol 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, have to Tom some kudos for saying days ago (when nothing was looking like it) that this could hit almost the same places that got hit 2 weeks ago. Well, here we are.

Yes...he did mentioned that......Good job Tom!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

21z SREF Mean staying juiced.  Models have really been increasing totals over east central Kansas.

1645358400-SwIl1Yx6Cv0.png

1645358400-EqWFRax0QXQ.png

1645358400-F66wpPmFnqI.png

I noticed that too!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So, right now I am thinking that once we are in the lull tomorrow morning and early afternoon, much colder air will be arriving (arctic air that is) and by the time the snow arrives later in the pm hours, air temps will be solidly in the 20s or colder, which will be perfect for a bonify heavy snowstorm, sticking immediately as it hits the ground.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, Niko said:

So, right now I am thinking that once we are in the lull tomorrow morning and early afternoon, much colder air will be arriving (arctic air that is) and by the time the snow arrives later in the pm hours, air temps will be solidly in the 20s or colder, which will be perfect for a bonify heavy snowstorm, sticking immediately as it hits the ground.

What happened to tStasch?? 

Anyways, I'd love to say "here comes an east side special" except I don't really know that that is a thing. It's pretty rare actually if/when far SE SEMI jackpots over areas to the west. This may be one of those times. Waiting to find out..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, Niko said:

So, right now I am thinking that once we are in the lull tomorrow morning and early afternoon, much colder air will be arriving (arctic air that is) and by the time the snow arrives later in the pm hours, air temps will be solidly in the 20s or colder, which will be perfect for a bonify heavy snowstorm, sticking immediately as it hits the ground.

Hoping the CAA does a more impressive job than last time around here, lol. Would be nice to avoid hours of 4:1 slushy cone stuff. I can remember some pretty epic quick "ice-overs" as the snow comes down steady on a brisk NE wind. That would be an ideal situation if we can pull it off. I'm recalling storms from my youth a bit further north when that happened. Back in '80's

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping the CAA does a more impressive job than last time around here, lol. Would be nice to avoid hours of 4:1 slushy cone stuff. I can remember some pretty epic quick "ice-overs" as the snow comes down steady on a brisk NE wind. That would be an ideal situation if we can pull it off. I'm recalling storms from my youth a bit further north when that happened. Back in '80's

I truly believe this time whatever liquid falls in the morning ends and the ground dries up as much colder air filters in. By the time the snow arrives, it will be sticking on frigid ground, which will enhanced the accumulations much more this time around. Also, w the last storm, I did pretty good.  Detroit received 9.2" and Macomb 9.0" even though, there wasn't as much cold air w that storm to work with. Thats the ironic part of it, but in any case, w this storm, it has w it a lot more frigid air to content w.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good luck I can't believe how tight it is again.

Thanks! Even the HRRR has been slowly shifting south the last three runs (23z-01z).

On the 01z run Kuchera has 1" in the NW corner up to 15" in the SE corner of Shawnee Co.!! That's nuts!

  • scream 2

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

What happened to tStasch?? 

Anyways, I'd love to say "here comes an east side special" except I don't really know that that is a thing. It's pretty rare actually if/when far SE SEMI jackpots over areas to the west. This may be one of those times. Waiting to find out..

I said the one thing this has going for it is the cold air could get established better with a more pronounce second wave would allow better rates.  Where it snows.  Still remains to be seen.  

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Wow, even the southern Chicagoland burbs are out of it, as are the northern Detroit burbs.  It was clear the GFS was on drugs a couple days ago, but dang.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Wow, even the southern Chicagoland burbs are out of it, as are the northern Detroit burbs.  It was clear the GFS was on drugs a couple days ago, but dang.

Not sure if there is something fundamentally wrong with the GFS or if this particular pattern is giving it trouble.  It stinks so bad right now it's covering up how bad the Euro has stunk as well.

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1 minute ago, someweatherdude said:

All you can do is shake your head.  Whoever is in charge of that model needs to go back to the drawing board.  The short term models still look pretty good for KC for the most part.  I've heard a lot of people say the GFS is trash inside 24 hours.  I'm not sure that's true in general.  But let's hope so this time.  

That what i was about to comment. Aren’t global models not that well inside 24 hours and the short range models are better?

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