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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom
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17 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Actually snowing quite heavily at the moment.  Won’t snow long but should pick up an inch or two.  Models always underplay the northern extent of the snow.  

Yep, good call on that yesterday.

But OMG I'm SMH @ GRR's snowfall map. They went Watch->Warn for Calhoun, but most of that county is in 3-6" totals. Since when (especially by that crew) is 3-6" a warning level event?? 😂

 

20220217 1 pm GRR SN Forecast.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

SMH @ GRR's snowfall map. They went Watch->Warn for Calhoun, but most of that county is in 3-6" totals. Since when (especially by that crew) is 3-6" a warning level event?? 

 

20220217 1 pm GRR SN Forecast.png

I think they were just as confused as everyone else with the storm. 

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4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I think they were just as confused as everyone else with the storm. 

That's funny. In 7 years they could've been fooled at least one other time when I was handed a WWA and easily met the 6+ inches in 12 hrs for a warning. Prolly due to the after-effects of COVID

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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So just looking at the radar the snow looks to be well north and west then what I remember seeing the models showing the past few days, seems the same thing happened last storm also. For my own reference what model seemed to handle and do the best forecasting these last couple storms? I know there’s couple new storms that are supposed to move across the Midwest next week and I just wanted to see what model I should pay attention to the most, thanks guys.

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Not sure if this is dry-slotting, UHI effects, or just the same sh*tty luck dogging me with this storm, but wow at such breaks in the radar overhead while the rest of SMI is rocking it. 

image.png.01bbce5044bd592b77da5268d2afc56c.png

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

So just looking at the radar the snow looks to be well north and west then what I remember seeing the models showing the past few days, seems the same thing happened last storm also. For my own reference what model seemed to handle and do the best forecasting these last couple storms? I know there’s couple new storms that are supposed to move across the Midwest next week and I just wanted to see what model I should pay attention to the most, thanks guys.

Others will no doubt answer more seriously, but the GFS was more north in MI, then when it adjusted SE it just kept going and over shot the runway. I don't think you can say one model nailed this. SR models like the NAM seem to be the way to go. And I mean within their respective reliable times. So, we won't know outside of 36 hrs imho

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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42 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

So just looking at the radar the snow looks to be well north and west then what I remember seeing the models showing the past few days, seems the same thing happened last storm also. For my own reference what model seemed to handle and do the best forecasting these last couple storms? I know there’s couple new storms that are supposed to move across the Midwest next week and I just wanted to see what model I should pay attention to the most, thanks guys.

The GEFS were by far the closest to the current snowfall that is falling.  The EPS was weaker and SE at D5+, but then slowly began showing a NW shift.  Inside  48 hours the RAP has done the best IMO with the past 2 systems.

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OMG, this place gets the most "snow dome" radar holes!! Never seen anything like it. Macomb is better than this!

image.png.483f79324ade380eec0b06f7a2d25bd0.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looked out my front door window..saw not a flake falling and figured "it's over, yet another bust"

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

OMG, this place gets the most "snow dome" radar holes!! Never seen anything like it. Macomb is better than this!

image.png.483f79324ade380eec0b06f7a2d25bd0.png

Heavy snow amigo /w strong winds!

Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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ORD officially picked up 2.9" while MDW had 3.8"...I'd call this a win in my book to score another 3"+ snowstorm esp when things weren't looking to good inside 24-48 hours.  This storm created another razor sharp cut-off across N IL and that last band that went through really helped with snowfall accumulations.  Local reports say my area got 3.6" which is about right.  This was some of the higher ratio snows of the season and very easy to dust off the car.  Yet again, it was the southern burbs that scored better and esp into NW IN.  C IL also did really well near Bloomington, IL where a swath of 6-9" fell and there was a devastating 100 car pile up that shut down I-39.  It looked like that one video someone posted in another thread of the other pile up some years ago in SW MI.

 

Feb 17th Snowfall Totals.png

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It was a beautiful, , cold snowstorm, although, a quick one, but definitely a hard hitter. Roughly 7" fell here in Macomb ( I will go out and measure later today when I get the chance) and 6.6" in the Detroit Metro Area. Just by peaking out of my window..I can see some real high drifts (more than 2ft in spots). I will also measure a few drifts as well. Not sure if I have a yard stick though.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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On 2/15/2022 at 12:11 PM, Tom said:

12z Euro...either the GFS will score the biggest coupe or the Euro will have prob the biggest fail around 48 hours or so...

1.png

 

3 hours ago, Tom said:

ORD officially picked up 2.9" while MDW had 3.8"...I'd call this a win in my book to score another 3"+ snowstorm esp when things weren't looking to good inside 24-48 hours.  This storm created another razor sharp cut-off across N IL and that last band that went through really helped with snowfall accumulations.  Local reports say my area got 3.6" which is about right.  This was some of the higher ratio snows of the season and very easy to dust off the car.  Yet again, it was the southern burbs that scored better and esp into NW IN.  C IL also did really well near Bloomington, IL where a swath of 6-9" fell and there was a devastating 100 car pile up that shut down I-39.  It looked like that one video someone posted in another thread of the other pile up some years ago in SW MI.

 

Feb 17th Snowfall Totals.png

You said Euro was a fail but I’m not sure I would agree.  Looks to have handled this pretty well AND was by far the most consistent.  

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

ORD officially picked up 2.9" while MDW had 3.8"...I'd call this a win in my book to score another 3"+ snowstorm esp when things weren't looking to good inside 24-48 hours.  This storm created another razor sharp cut-off across N IL and that last band that went through really helped with snowfall accumulations.  Local reports say my area got 3.6" which is about right.  This was some of the higher ratio snows of the season and very easy to dust off the car.  Yet again, it was the southern burbs that scored better and esp into NW IN.  C IL also did really well near Bloomington, IL where a swath of 6-9" fell and there was a devastating 100 car pile up that shut down I-39.  It looked like that one video someone posted in another thread of the other pile up some years ago in SW MI.

 

Feb 17th Snowfall Totals.png

Considering you were on the northern fringes of this storm, this was definitely a win for ya. Here in my area, at times, it was at near blizzard conditions w all of that blowing and drifting snow, along w heavy snow falling. It was a good storm. Gotta tell ya, so far, S MI is doing good snowfallwise. Too bad December didn't play out good.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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19 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

 

You said Euro was a fail but I’m not sure I would agree.  Looks to have handled this pretty well AND was by far the most consistent.  

The Euro began to lock in on a track inside 48 hrs pretty good for N IL…beyond that it was jumping around esp post D5.

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20 minutes ago, Tom said:

I recall you were waving it good bye 👋 

Yes Tom.  I was waiving goodbye to the GFS totals you were riding.  Because it most certainly caved to the EURO.  If you can’t (or don’t want to) admit the EURO handled this system the best, then that says a little something.  But the history and time lapse of the model runs says it all.  

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1 minute ago, BrianJK said:

Yes Tom.  I was waiving goodbye to the GFS totals you were riding.  Because it most certainly caved to the EURO.  If you can’t (or don’t want to) admit the EURO handled this system the best, then that says a little something.  But the history and time lapse of the model runs says it all.  

Yes, the GFS tanked inside 48 hours…I was riding the GEFS and have stated that several times on here…

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46 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

Yes Tom.  I was waiving goodbye to the GFS totals you were riding.  Because it most certainly caved to the EURO.  If you can’t (or don’t want to) admit the EURO handled this system the best, then that says a little something.  But the history and time lapse of the model runs says it all.  

Euro did poorly in my area though.  It was way too far south all along.  GFS did better overall with the position of the storm, but way overdid totals until close to the storm starting.  

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23 hours ago, jaster220 said:

OMG, this place gets the most "snow dome" radar holes!! Never seen anything like it. Macomb is better than this!

image.png.483f79324ade380eec0b06f7a2d25bd0.png

 

23 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Looked out my front door window..saw not a flake falling and figured "it's over, yet another bust"

I must've pissed off the wx gods or something. I continue to draw the short straw on every SW flow system. I'm certain no more than 1/2" additional fell after I made that post that it "was over". I can't go higher than 4" for here (and maybe it's a bit less but winds not helping). Seems about the same 4+/- inches between here and my office about 5 miles NE. 

Here's some sad sad evidence to support my personal obs:

 

 

2022-02-18 Wayne Cnty Snowstorm totals list.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On a positive note, the storm gets high marks for a rocking switch-over, some serious +SN just as I headed home, and legit winds. Also, the nice HP coming in after, giving us a sunny day and some blue sky. Snow was piled up decently for such a lower end total. 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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