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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom
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Models had Iowa getting clobbered 5-6 days before the last storm, but we got nothing.  We'll have a better idea by Sunday.

I wish someone would develop a more accurate ratio formula that takes everything into account, including wind.  For this upcoming storm, 10:1 is probably more accurate.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I can already envision this thing shifting north though.  Precip starting to break out at around hour 123.  Maybe in 24 hours, the track will get more firmed up.  I would think if it's gonna make a big jump it will do so in the next 24 hours.  The Euro usually doesn't have drastic shifts inside 120 hours (I'm talking hundreds of miles).  But I could definitely see this southern edge shift north into northern Iowa.  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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So far this is an unusual system to follow, not in the extreme amounts of precip modeled, but in how the thickness vaules on the N edge hit a serious brick wall and than retreat S with the CAA. It's usually a much warmer solution( especially with Gulf warmth/moisture advecting in )  once you get S of the 540 line here in C.IA which usually ='s a rainer. Don't wanna be on the N edge of this as the dry/cold air is going to produce serious cutoffs.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models had Iowa getting clobbered 5-6 days before the last storm, but we got nothing.  We'll have a better idea by Sunday.

I wish someone would develop a more accurate ratio formula that takes everything into account, including wind.  For this upcoming storm, 10:1 is probably more accurate.

I don't even click on kuchera anymore.  Its a ridiculous method in most storms.

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13 minutes ago, gosaints said:

I don't even click on kuchera anymore.  Its a ridiculous method in most storms.

I'm surprised that especially on premium sites, a user can't define what they want the ratio to be.  So I could go in and change it to 12:1 for example.  You would think that would be easy to setup.  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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The Canadian just keeps upping the suppression.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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BIG STORM in the Plains. We talked how the cycling pattern that produce this same storm On OCT. 9th-12th in cycle one, Dec. 8th-12th in cycle 2 and now Feb. 15th to 18th. 

 

Should be another big storm in the Plains one week after this one around Feb. 23rd to Feb 26th. Likely a 3rd big storm in the Plains towards March 1st-4th

This storm looks very similar to cycle 2 where there was  a lot of warmth out in front of it, severe weather, and a wintry side. Lots of moisture on all 3 storms. 

The  12z GFS actually I believe showed a blizzard on the NW side. 

5-6 days out, who gets blasted??

 

Edited by MIKEKC
missed some info
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On the Canadian, KC doesn't even get any rain.  Just as an FYI, I mentioned the Canadian with the last storm about this far out because it was pushing snow south of KC, and someone responded that the Canadian is always too far south/suppressed.  But it ended up being right.  

 

Edit:  ICON (I know, I know) is also very suppressed at the moment.  But at least KC would get some precip. 

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FWIW, the UK is also suppressed.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

FWIW, the UK is also suppressed.

It doesn't look that bad actually....SLP develops near the TX Panhandle and then tracks just SE of KC with cold air pressing....looks like a good run if it went out farther.

1.png

 

2.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

It doesn't look that bad actually....SLP develops near the TX Panhandle and then tracks just SE of KC with cold air pressing....looks like a good run if it went out farther.

1.png

 

2.png

 

But look at the total QPF.  If you're in Iowa/Nebraska, that looks suppressed.  Even KC is on the NW edge of the heavier precip. 

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6 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

But look at the total QPF.  If you're in Iowa/Nebraska, that looks suppressed.  Even KC is on the NW edge of the heavier precip. 

True, but that can be figured out in future runs...I like this run bc of two reasons: #1: It doesn't cutoff the the energy in the SW #2) It takes a good track for our region.  Phasing, Timing, etc will be figured out in the coming days but the idea is there for the energy to come out all at once and not sheared out crap.

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

True, but that can be figured out in future runs...I like this run bc of two reasons: #1: It doesn't cutoff the the energy in the SW #2) It takes a good track for our region.  Phasing, Timing, etc will be figured out in the coming days but the idea is there for the energy to come out all at once and not sheared out crap.

I hear ya.  And I don't buy any specific solution this far out.  I'll admit that I'm still worried this could end up south of KC. Feel very snake bit from the last one.  Check out this dry air at 144 hours.  

ukie.jpg

canadian.jpg

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2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I hear ya.  And I don't buy any specific solution this far out.  I'll admit that I'm still worried this could end up south of KC. Feel very snake bit from the last one.  Check out this dry air at 144 hours.  

ukie.jpg

canadian.jpg

The AO and NAO should keep that from happening.  I worry more about it going the other way.

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2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

So for the LRC followers,, does this storm correlate with the Dec 15th storm that had the crazy tornado outbreak?

Apparently this storm is actually correlating to the "wet cycle" storm cycle that occurred back in October. Even though we had the tornado outbreak and a big line of storms with snow on the backside of the December storm, that was part of the dry cycle LRC cycle every other cycle cycle... cycle.

 

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Euro (hi res) is out.  GFS is alone right now.  I recall a storm earlier this year where every other model eventually caved to the GFS, and KC got whiffed.  Man, I have a feeling this is going to be like the beginning of the month where KC doesn't know what the snow amounts will look like until it's done snowing. 

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18 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Apparently this storm is actually correlating to the "wet cycle" storm cycle that occurred back in October. Even though we had the tornado outbreak and a big line of storms with snow on the backside of the December storm, that was part of the dry cycle LRC cycle every other cycle cycle... cycle.

 

And the fact that a severe weather outbreak has happened in both previous cycles has my attention.  As we move into mid/late April this will likely impact both Omaha and KC.  Might be a good time for a chase!

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I'm pretty much in "wait and see" mode on this system. I do expect a system to occur but how it will eventually look, track and affect me is uncertain to me anyway.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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EAX mentioning the potential for blizzard conditions in KC in this mornings AFD

That leads into the strong storm system models continue to show
track across the middle of the country late Wednesday through
Thursday. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to show good agreement with
the ECMWF still a bit slower and a bit more south with the 500mb
vorticity center at 12Z Thursday. The GFS also has more of a
negative tilt sooner which induces stronger lift and a more
pronounced deformation zone, that sits over eastern KS and western
MO Thursday. The ECMWF is a little later to take on a negative tilt
leading to a deformation zone that is further east of the area. This
difference in the position/time/angle of the upper trough also
affects the surface wind fields. The GFS produces a stronger
pressure gradient further west and would result in near blizzard
conditions over the forecast area if it verified. With the
later/more easterly negative tilt of the ECMWF, the stronger winds
are further east as well. That said, there`s still a lot of
uncertainty with some critical aspects of this storm. The track of
the storm, the thermal profile, how quickly temperatures cool are
still very uncertain at this point. Overall, this system has the
potential to produce accumulating snow, potentially heavy, across
portions of KS and MO, combined with strong and gusty winds.

 

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This looks like a repeat of the GHD storm. The model runs are remarkably similar with a further north track several days out, to shifting south and more progressive. It’s looking less and less likely that we’ll see much of anything up this way. 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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