2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

06z NWS Blend...

 

 

Not getting invested in this one as I believe far SEMI metro will see mostly liquid. I mean, we struggled here for hours and hours to switch-over to decent snow on the 2nd. And this is a warmer system. My $$ is on Allegan county and a line NE from there to be a "good storm". Middle of the Mitt special imho.

[gosaints]

This is a trending turd

[CentralNebWeather]

I used to always be concerned with storms going NW of me. Not this year. 

[winterfreak]

GFS is lame. Another storm that doesn’t get its act together until it’s well east of here? Shocker.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just wow at this point. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Another swing and a miss south. Amazing. Bring on Spring. 

Yep. Even when all the indexes and no snow cover meant it was going to go north.

[OmahaSnowFan]

At least with no snow cover, it’ll just warm up again that much faster.

[tStacsh]

Looks like rain to snow here.  Yawner.  Don't want the slop.  Much rather melt all this ice and snow.  At least it's trending weaker.  

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep. Even when all the indexes and no snow cover meant it was going to go north.

Call it LRC or just the "seasonal M.O.", but yeah it's a real phenomenon. Fantastic when you're in the jackzone constantly, but just horrible when you find yourself in the dearth zone. Unless it's a clipper, my place this winter is riding the southern edge on all these SW flow storms. Can't break that.

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like rain to snow here.  Yawner.  Don't want the slop.  Much rather melt all this ice and snow.  At least it's trending weaker.  

I'd be ok with a little more winter (it is Feb after all) if only we could get a real snow here. Instead it's almost guaranteed lameness. It will find a way it seems.

[tStacsh]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'd be ok with a little more winter (it is Feb after all) if only we could get a real snow here. Instead it's almost guaranteed lameness. It will find a way it seems.

That's just it.  It's been cold, just no real snow.  When it did warm up we got 3 inches of heavy wet snow yesterday.  Now it's 15 degrees and everything is sheer ice.  Now it's going to warm up, rain, then change to wet snow, end and everything will just be ice again.  I want one consistent meltdown, then wouldn't care if it snows again.  I expect it to snow again, even maybe a decent event by the end of February.  A nice fresh snowpack I wouldn't mind.   

 

[snowstorm83]

29 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

At least with no snow cover, it’ll just warm up again that much faster.

Yeah it’ll be in the 50s the next day lol 

[mlgamer]

Models drying everything out here to pretty much nothing. Always expect the unexpected...lol

[Jayhawker85]

14 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Models drying everything out here to pretty much nothing. Always expect the unexpected...lol

The models go wet to dry and will go wet again in the day or so. This storm per the previous cycle was negatively titled and produced a lot of moisture. I expect this to be a true precip performer once the models sample the energy and moisture once it’s onshore. We are still 5 days out from when it arrives 

[bud2380]

I’m far more excited for tonight’s little clipper than this storm. Short term models are showing a nice stripe of 1 to even as high as 4” through eastern Iowa. 

[someweatherdude]

4 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The models go wet to dry and will go wet again in the day or so. This storm per the previous cycle was negatively titled and produced a lot of moisture. I expect this to be a true precip performer once the models sample the energy and moisture once it’s onshore. We are still 5 days out from when it arrives 

I honestly don't think so.  I'm expecting little, if anything, with this one.  Even with it lining up to be a more southern forum scenario, it looks to be getting squished.  That has been very common this year.  Things have gotten squished here in the plains, and pushed off to the east where they reform.  

[gosaints]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

I honestly don't think so.  I'm expecting little, if anything, with this one.  Even with it lining up to be a more southern forum scenario, it looks to be getting squished.  That has been very common this year.  Things have gotten squished here in the plains, and pushed off to the east where they reform.  

The northern. Stream is simply way strong and way fast.  The euro even more so it seems.

[Hawkeye]

Nebraskans and Iowans can pretty much forget about this turd.  It's gone.

[Grizzcoat]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Nebraskans and Iowans can pretty much forget about this turd.  It's gone.

There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way...

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way...

I was holding out hope you’d be correct. Seen lots of north shifts over the years. Just not this year. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

There is no doubt about that. And how wrong I was on a N shift, but to my defense the system is not wrapping up like it was a day or so ago, but still - bad call on my part-- I should've followed the trends of the winter. This thing keeps trending the way it is (weaker and SE) -- other than lake effect off Lake Michigan - a rather non-event. Hats off the CMC (again this winter scoring a coup) for leading the way...

Your reasoning made sense. It's just the way it's gone this winter.

[GDR]

Top 5 Crappy winters of all time in my book! Any ideas to what December this year will look like?

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The models go wet to dry and will go wet again in the day or so. This storm per the previous cycle was negatively titled and produced a lot of moisture. I expect this to be a true precip performer once the models sample the energy and moisture once it’s onshore. We are still 5 days out from when it arrives 

The storm is currently SW of the Aleutian Islands so there is time for changes.  However in KC when the AO and NAO are both positive storms tend to either cut and miss us to the NW or be weak and strengthen to our east.  Still time for improvements but the trend today is no good.

[clintbeed1993]

I remember when it used to actually be FUN to watch models and track the storms. This year it's been the opposite. I've had FOUR different storms showing 10 inches or more on models for days, only to end up with 3 each time. Ridiculous 

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I remember when it used to actually be FUN to watch models and track the storms. This year it's been the opposite. I've had FOUR different storms showing 10 inches or more on models for days, only to end up with 3 each time. Ridiculous 

You've  had 4 measurable  snows?   It has only snowed more than a flurry on 2 occasions  here in se iowa.  6.7 on Jan1 and 12.2 on Jan 14,15

2 measurable  events since last Feb 16. Totally  unheard of here!!!! 

[clintbeed1993]

2 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

You've  had 4 measurable  snows?   It has only snowed more than a flurry on 2 occasions  here in se iowa.  6.7 on Jan1 and 12.2 on Jan 14,15

2 measurable  events since last Feb 16. Totally  unheard of here!!!! 

It has snowed 3 times...each time 3 inches or less. This was the 4th storm showing a big hit for my house for days only to screw my area. I'd gladly take what you've had.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I can confirm the forecast warmup the day after what would have been the storm. NWS has removed all pops chances as well.

[Stacsh]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not getting invested in this one as I believe far SEMI metro will see mostly liquid. I mean, we struggled here for hours and hours to switch-over to decent snow on the 2nd. And this is a warmer system. My $$ is on Allegan county and a line NE from there to be a "good storm". Middle of the Mitt special imho.

you might be the only one to see appreciable snow out of this one.  

[Clinton]

0z GFS and ICON wouldn't need much a nudge north to give KC a nice snow.  Good hits from mby up to southern Michigan.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS and ICON wouldn't need much a nudge north to give KC a nice snow.  Good hits from mby up to southern Michigan.

Looks like you and I (and Niko) are the posters//members currently still in the hunt, lol. This may keep going SE and be another E Ohio special. Seems they have had a hotter hand then us this winter. 

DTX summing things up:

Quote

However, a very sensitive forecast to shifts in system trajectory
and corresponding frontal positioning ensures very low confidence in
projecting temperature trends and subsequent precipitation type. In
general, all precipitation types appear in play with the frontal
slope in the vicinity. Additional refinement within the model
solution space yet to come with the features of interest still a
couple days away from appropriate sampling.

 

[GDR]

Too much time for this to move south

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, GDR said:

Too much time for this to move south

Yep. If we could just hit the pause button on the shifting. Ofc, the Neb/Iowa crew would've already done that a couple days ago. 

[Stacsh]

I will gladly welcome 40’s and rain ahead of this system and let the snow go south! 

[Clinton]

 EAX seems more excited about this storm than the models do.

The potential for a strong winter storm system continues to
increase Wednesday - Thursday. Models are still in agreement with
a positively tilted upper-level trough dropping into the Great
Basin and Four Corners region before becoming more neutrally
oriented as it moves out onto the Plains. Primary concerns will
be focused on how quickly cold air will move in and cool the
column. If the mid-levels cool rather quickly, we could see a
pretty quick transition from rain to snow. If the mid-levels are
slow to cool, then a wintry mix will be more likely with a slower
transition over to all snow. The other concern is if this system
ejects in two pieces as a shortwave ejecting out first and the
main trough delayed. The two-part solution would quickly
complicate the forecast and impact precipitation amount/type.
Quite a few details to iron out in the next few days.

 

[jaster220]

Just now, Stacsh said:

I will gladly welcome 40’s and rain ahead of this system and let the snow go south! 

Yeah. Things are all upside down wrt timing this winter. We're in a literal icebox for weeks, then the DAY BEFORE the big storm, we roast leading into the event. Stupid-stupid-stupid. This looks like another one like that. 

[Clinton]

0z GEFS members looking better tonight for a faster organizing storm.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah. Things are all upside down wrt timing this winter. We're in a literal icebox for weeks, then the DAY BEFORE the big storm, we roast leading into the event. Stupid-stupid-stupid. This looks like another one like that. 

Just wait Jaster, Winter will show up with monster storms in MAR when the jet slows down and phasing occurs.  I can see this happening and I'm sure there will be a lot of happy campers on here (sarc).  The "snow bird" in me will want to be leaving for warmer climates by then.  Anyhow, I hope your doing well with your recovery.  As you said earlier, it is still FEB so I don't mind seeing some more snow before the calendar flips to MAR.

 

[Tom]

Good to see the UKIE not as suppressed as previous runs...

 

 

Geeze, wish this could be an all snow event...

 

[Tom]

0z Euro is sheared out crapola...

[Tom]

0z Euro....worst run yet...mid range model chaos as they say...

 

[Tom]

0z EPS...some good hits but a lot of warmer solutions showing up...similar to the GEFS so there is some consistency in that dept...

 

[Grizzcoat]

06GFS about 100 mile shift NW-

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS shifted NW also but not nearly as much as the operational which is  to be expected. 06Z Euro only out to 90 hrs pretty much held the same as 00Z. Will see in a few hours if the 06Z GFS is on to something or if it's a false run/outlier. My guess is the later.

[CentralNebWeather]

The beat goes on. 

 

[Clinton]

6z EC also shifted to the NW still not as far as the GFS.

 

[Clinton]

6z GEFS and Euro Mean.  Several of the Euro members are more organized and colder compared to the 0z.  Seems like we may see a trend for a stronger storm further NW today.

[Stacsh]

Oh joy I’m in the bullseye on this mornings runs.  Not what I wanted 

[mlgamer]

12z 12km NAM looks promising at 84 hrs.

[inferno]

Northern stream trending weaker faster further north.  Thats another way to get a wetter more wrapped up solution.

[inferno]

Panhandle hook is still on the table with that trend