2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter

[Stacsh]

GRR radar will be down for 2 weeks

[Clinton]

18z Euro slightly wider with the snow shield and a little more juiced.

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Close up Kuchera

 

 

Compared to 12z

Kinda ridiculous.    So here in Ottumwa  Ia,  its 0 to 18"?   Models are a joke.  Either gfs scores a massive  winner or its a absolute  joke.

[Jayhawker85]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro slightly wider with the snow shield and a little more juiced.

The Euro is stubborn south and the American is stubborn to the North. Which one will cave in and be right!

[bud2380]

18z Euro slightly further north. 

[clintbeed1993]

5 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Kinda ridiculous.    So here in Ottumwa  Ia,  its 0 to 18"?   Models are a joke.  Either gfs scores a massive  winner or its a absolute  joke.

I have no clue what they're having such trouble with, but they are rarely THIS far apart in different universes this close to a storm. They have performed particularly badly this winter. I wonder if it's the progressive split flow pattern that's the culprit...

[Stacsh]

15 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I have no clue what they're having such trouble with, but they are rarely THIS far apart in different universes this close to a storm. They have performed particularly badly this winter. I wonder if it's the progressive split flow pattern that's the culprit...

Gotta look at the ensembles because the op models are  struggling with the cold push.   At this point like the last storm a few miles will make a difference it seems.  Euro gives me a few inches.  GFS is a storm we haven’t had here in years.   I’m siding with euro right now.   It did better here last time.  

[Niko]

18z Euro looks beautiful for S MI.

[Clinton]

18z EC is further NW this run and the Mean also

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The Euro is stubborn south and the American is stubborn to the North. Which one will cave in and be right!

I bet they meet in the middle, the Euro just gave a little lets see what the GFS does tonight.

[clintbeed1993]

47 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Gotta look at the ensembles because the op models are  struggling with the cold push.   At this point like the last storm a few miles will make a difference it seems.  Euro gives me a few inches.  GFS is a storm we haven’t had here in years.   I’m siding with euro right now.   It did better here last time.  

 The ensembles are also worlds apart, so that doesn't help much here

[CentralNebWeather]

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z EC is further NW this run and the Mean also

That dry slot really hasn’t budged all winter in any storm. From here to South Dakota the beat goes on. 

[Clinton]

21 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That dry slot really hasn’t budged all winter in any storm. From here to South Dakota the beat goes on. 

Hope that gets broke down before spring even if it's rain.

[winterfreak]

NAM:

[winterfreak]

NAM QPF:

[shakjen]

Caplan had a pretty good breakdown of the models on his Facebook.   

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

NAM:

Looks like it will join team GFS.

[bud2380]

Pretty solid shift north by the nam. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties south.  I’m ok with that.  

I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties north.  I’m ok with that.  

[snowstorm83]

Not to brag but I do have a 7% chance of 1” 

[jaster220]

CPC - Gives Chicago and SW from there the winds. They always get the winds while here it's like winds during winter storms don't exist. 

 

[Clinton]

0z RDPS more in line with the Euro.

[winterfreak]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z RDPS more in line with the Euro.

Can’t wait to see the CMC…

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

The amounts seem so much more realistic than the NAM/GFS, which makes me think this solution (or something very similar) is more likely to verify. 

Maybe the track of the NAM with the RDPS amounts.  I still think KC does better than me with this one.

[Clinton]

The ICON has had a slight drift north but it's been maybe the most consistent with track and amounts for KC.  Here is the last 5 runs.

 

[Stacsh]

31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I’m just gonna assume this will miss again like the last one a few counties north.  I’m ok with that.  

Kazoo to Lansing special 

[indianajohn]

1 hour ago, shakjen said:

Caplan had a pretty good breakdown of the models on his Facebook.   

Probably does the best job going through all the models.. the ice part is very concerning for my area… 

[Stacsh]

GFS stronger and north lol.  I don’t know what think lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

38 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Not to brag but I do have a 7% chance of 1” 

And I'm at 8%. Ha!

[bud2380]

Cmon GFS. Be right just once. I’m still hoping for an even further shift north. But it shows 15” this run for Iowa city

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

And I'm at 8%. Ha!

I’m at 0%.  I got you both beat.

[Clinton]

GFS has a blizzard from Topeka through Michigan.

 

[MKEstorm]

GFS stronger and north! Would like to see the Canadian and Euro do the same though. Usually when these Panhandle Hook storms get stronger, they go more north.

[KCSmokey]

NWS KC Thoughts (Thread)

https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/1493415309176311808

As you all are probably aware, we are monitoring a potentially significant winter storm for Thursday, but are hesitant to narrow down the specifics at this time. Why is that? And what are the unknowns? Well, it’s complicated. A thread 1/7…

[Clinton]

0z GEFS 

[bud2380]

Canadian a tad further north. But not anywhere near the gfs. 

[bud2380]

UK also north. But still not near the GFS

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

[hlcater]

Think our odds in E IA are somewhat better with this one compared to the last storm. But that doesn't mean they're good...

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro - Nearly the same as 12z central and east, but much better for eastern KS into west-central MO.  It's looking good for Clinton.