President's Day - Washington's B Day Winter Storm

[MKEstorm]

Watching for ice here Monday night and Tuesday 

[Madtown]

Looksnlike its headed way north on GFS bubye Monday snow

[Stormgeek]

HRRR says "lol what Twin Cities storm?" Holds it wayyyyyy north. Lets hope it is wrong.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

MNZ045-052-053-060>063-210500-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0002.220221T0900Z-220223T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.220221T1200Z-220223T0000Z/
Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Including the cities of Mora, Cambridge, Center City,
Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, and Stillwater
257 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
  14 inches. Locally higher amounts are likely, particularly in
  northern counties.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions will make for difficult
  travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found
at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Yeah... HRRR is not good.

[Madtown]

Hrrr hasn't been close on any stlrm since the first clipper back in dec up hete

[Madtown]

Sums up my forecast office. lol only place without a wwa in all of wi 

[Andie]

Good grief. We have everything from snow to thunderstorms to high wind and fire risks.  
Just about anything for everyone. 
I just don’t want anything in the 20’s for very long.  

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

Sums up my forecast office. lol only place without a wwa in all of wi 

Walworth's WWA is just for freezing rain and sleet, with ice accumulations up to .25in. There is going to be some massive damage. No mention of snow with this storm. If we get that much ice it's going to be national news probably.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

0Z HRRR is South by about 2 inches.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

NAM 12KM gives me 4". NEST gives me 9" Oh, the humanity.

[Stormgeek]

Yep, looks like NAM caved north as well.

[Madtown]

Anyone have the 18z euro?

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Anyone have the 18z euro?

18z Euro

[Madtown]

Well its accuweather,  but don't think I've ever seen this before.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Madtown said:

Well its accuweather,  but don't think I've ever seen this before.

0z Euro agrees...you guys will do good up there...

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Radar is verifying wayyyy north.

[Stormgeek]

First wave is a bust north here. The second wave being a bust to the south would be par for the course.

 

[Madtown]

All the Hires stuff showing i get missed to the north today. .Nice flakes falling now see how long we can hold on

[Madtown]

And main band lifted north. Depressing, but kinda expected.

[St Paul Storm]

Wave 1 has been modeled to be north of the metro for days, so no surprises there. Wave 2 coming in pretty hot on the 12z runs so far this morning. Tomorrow’s snow is the money maker. Liking the trends to be honest. 

[james1976]

WWA down here an inch of snow and some ice

[gimmesnow]

Can someone explain why this is happening with the storm, please? Portage Wisconsin (near the Dells) forecast has low going into the day as 18, high that day of 22, then low of 5 but they are calling for snow and sleet, why would there be sleet with those temps?

They are still calling for 1-3in of snow, and it doesn't look like there's wrap around snow on NAM, looks like all sleet. It usually seems like there's a very clear cut off between snow and rain but this has a bigger blob of sleet then I'm used to seeing. I understand that sleet is snow that melts as it falls then freezes again, but what maps on tropicaltidbits show that it'd be warm enough to become sleet?

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Can someone explain why this is happening with the storm, please? Portage Wisconsin (near the Dells) forecast has low going into the day as 18, high that day of 22, then low of 5 but they are calling for snow and sleet, why would there be sleet with those temps?

They are still calling for 1-3in of snow, and it doesn't look like there's wrap around snow on NAM, looks like all sleet. It usually seems like there's a very clear cut off between snow and rain but this has a bigger blob of sleet then I'm used to seeing. I understand that sleet is snow that melts as it falls then freezes again, but what maps on tropicaltidbits show that it'd be warm enough to become sleet?

Look at the 850’s…

[Madtown]

In John Dee I trust

[St Paul Storm]

15z RAP now with double digit totals from the mid metro on north. I’d say at least 5” looking pretty good. Anything more is bonus. 

[Madtown]

16"-17" down today in the Bayfield Peninsula! Pictures on Duluth NWS facebook

[Madtown]

looks like totals are being lowered around here for tomorrow

[Madtown]

Local Mets still saying 10" locally here 4-8 south and 12+ northwest

 who knows i guess. anyone have the 18z euro?

[Madtown]

well after a lack last Forecast disco they come out with this map. Maybe not all hope is lost

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I think MPX is pretty close with its 4-7" on the grid, I might go a bit higher than that. One thing is for sure: This is a horrible storm for Kuchera.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Well whaddya know, dry air is winning on radar right now.

[james1976]

Another overhyped event. Schools are already delaying and canceling activities for tomorrow......forecast for inch or less of snow and a glaze of ice. WOW. What is this.....North Carolina??? When I was a kid sh*t didn't get canceled til the morning of and only if it was a lot of snow and/or ice.

I'll be shocked if it's bad in the morning. Maybe it will be???? But as of right now it doesn't seem to look too bad.

[Cfweather]

6 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Another overhyped event. Schools are already delaying and canceling activities for tomorrow......forecast for inch or less of snow and a glaze of ice. WOW. What is this.....North Carolina??? When I was a kid sh*t didn't get canceled til the morning of and only if it was a lot of snow and/or ice.

I'll be shocked if it's bad in the morning. Maybe it will be???? But as of right now it doesn't seem to look too bad.

I don’t drive on ice.  And I really don’t want to drive on ice to take my kid to the high school tomorrow where a bunch of 14 and 15 year olds are driving….

[OmahaSnowFan]

The “I refuse to snow” winter continuing right now, as we have freezing drizzle/mist with a temp of only 20 degrees

[snowstorm83]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The “I refuse to snow” winter continuing right now, as we have freezing drizzle/mist with a temp of only 20 degrees

I didn't expect any precip it's been flurrying hard enough to give us a very light dusting. I noticed earlier that temps were falling a bit ahead of schedule. 

[Bellona]

I can report freezing drizzle in Waterloo. Just started.

[Tom]

IBM GRAF usually does a real good job inside 24 hours...

[Tom]

Some hefty totals showing up near the lake up in the Northwoods...

[Madtown]

outside of the lake enhanced snow in Bayfield/Duluth this as of now is a bust. 6" in Ironwood, where 12-19" was predicted.  Maybe things change today, but I would be surprised to reach 8" total over the 2 days here. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

19 minutes ago, Madtown said:

outside of the lake enhanced snow in Bayfield/Duluth this as of now is a bust. 6" in Ironwood, where 12-19" was predicted.  Maybe things change today, but I would be surprised to reach 8" total over the 2 days here. 

I'd be surprised if we reach 4 here.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Radar filling in finally. A dusting on the ground currently, 11*F.

[Bellona]

Like just a big screw you to these counties or what? Btw the sleet slamming against my windows now just woke me up.

[Tom]

Hearing rumbles of thunder this morning… 🌩 

[Tom]

Right on cue, as I was looking out my bedroom window…boom!  Witnessed my first flash of lightning ️ ⛈ of 2022…on 2-22-22…powerful numerology going on today…

[james1976]

Drive in to work was fine. Cautious in a couple areas but mainly dry. Spitting a little snow/sleet. 

[BMT]

Thunder sleet here in Marion

[tStacsh]

Pouring rain and a rumble of thunder outside the office.  Oh man I love winter, but thunderstorms is a close second.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Had a light coating of ice overnight that was causing some serious issues on the roads but thankfully dried up before rush hour. Also had some light snow amounting to maybe 1/4-1/2”. 
Kids were excited to see snow again after 6 weeks of nothing even if it’s nothing they can play in.

[St Paul Storm]

We’re about to get into the heavy returns here in the metro, but this thing is really gonna have to rip if we’re going to get to 4-6”. This is likely a huge bust. But we’ll see.