Phil

That pic was at ~ 1200ft. Technically we’d just passed Hancock. Can’t see the terrain because it’s in the cloud deck. But definitely at least 2 weeks behind DC, probably more. Took this yesterday, foliage has been emerging quite rapidly.

Just below the cloud deck here driving thru Hancock.

His analogs for May are.. Somehow he has 1969 and 1987 (2nd year niños) in there but leaves out closer matches like 2010? I get it’s a subseasonal analog pool but still can’t quite wrap my head around that. Edit: he does have 2010 in there (I missed it) but a good number of those years shouldn’t be included at all IMO.

Honestly I wish the operational GFS didn’t exist. Always shows the most amazing, enjoyable solutions but it never happens. Especially in the spring. 06z has a sexy-af tropopause fold/TPV lobe swinging thru next week but not a single GEFS/EPS/GEPS member has it. Idk how it strays so far off the reservation, but it be trollolololin’.

Heading out to appalachia for a bachelor party. Will do my very best not to drunk-post this weekend but make no promises.

I can smell the ocean. Immediately knew a PNW-style backdoor marine push had moved thru overnight.

Maybe if we get this pattern out of the way in spring it’ll reverse during the summer.

The 00z CMC and GEFS both have that zonal/onshore flow pattern establishing during week-2. A J***e delight.

Been saying this for awhile. 2024 will probably be the hottest summer on record for the lower-48. All forcing components are lining up in the worst way possible.

Where they have “equal chances” is probably where the warmest anomalies will end up. Lmao.

Huh? No I wasn’t. Unless it was an in-jest comment about a single long range model run.

This is what 2017 looked like on this date. LA NINA!

NOAA has been having a rough time lately. Horrible busts last winter on both the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Idk what their methodology is but it’s been failing them since the niño established. IIRC they rely heavily on the IRI which is notoriously bad when seasonal/LF forcing components destructively interfere w/ canonical EOFs (example: strong niño in tandem with -PMM).

16/17 was full blown niño-costero by Feb. Calling that winter a niña borders on criminal.

The first 5 days are dry but the faucet of life turns on week-2. If the pattern evolved exactly as modeled, it actually might “solve” a lot (esp extrapolating that pattern forward). Doesn’t mean it will verify but it’s one of the possibilities.