2 Summer's ago was really nice. There were probably 10-12 good storm days of building/towering clouds. I could look at the horizon and see constant lightning. But that has become much more rare recently. This Summer for example, there were no "chasing worthy" storms! I like to get the storm towering, against the blue sky, with lightning underneath. I would get 1000 pictures a year back when I was in school in the early 2000s. For the last 10 years, much, much more rare. And I remember deep hazy atmosphere's as a kid. The storms that would happen would be powerful, whole color would be purple or very very dark, almost black. Now they are just these gray clouds with all these wind bursts and hail.. "powerful lines". I see it as a difference in the whole earth system.
I’m looking at satellite and radar archives back to the late 1980s. There have definitely been a couple of distinct changes in convective tendencies out here over the last two decades, seemingly driven by changes in the weather pattern itself.
But you are correct re: over-warning inflating numbers. It’s a thing just about everywhere..better safe than sorry,