The trailing edge of some fronts try to bust through by next weekend.

Doesn’t a ridge that strong in Dec always come with an inversion? I mean, it’s almost impossible to get Tim weather (sun and warmth) this time of year.

Monday is looking quite wet here. Got a quarter inch of light rain this morning!

06z ECMWF added an interesting wrinkle. The main precip shield to the south didn't really move more northward, it was actually the timing of a piece of energy getting ejected from the current monster trough off the West Coast. You can see it with a variety of 500mb maps. There is some energy that cuts off from the main trough in about 24 hours. In previous runs, that energy didn't line up well timing-wise with the main energy passing by down south. This run shows those two pieces meeting at just the right time over SD/NE/IA to provide enough lift and squeeze out some extra moisture. In the run-to-run change map, you can see not only did the timing line up better but it was just slightly stronger as well. For those of us north of the main precip band, that little lobe of energy is our ticket to a white Thanksgiving. If that thing that can time up just right and trend just a little stronger down the homestretch, we still might be able to pull this off. It's a hail mary but it's about all we got at this point. Of course, knowing the models lately, everything will change with the 12z runs and this will all become moot and I will be reminded why I told myself to take a break from the models.

Would be ideal to see the models to start coming back towards a snowier solution as the data is being digested better now that the energy is closer to shore and what happens with the monster west coast storm. The Fujirwara effect is certainly creating some mayhem in the models.