12z GFS also increased the potency of that northern energy a bit when compared to the 06z run. It doesn't time/phase as well with the southern portion as the ECMWF does but it might be a step in the right direction.

The ECMWF surface obs make zero sense later in the run. Solidly buried in high pressure with a very inversionary surface pressure setup and yet it's stupidly warm.

Yeah, that one started spitting out false start stuff Thanksgiving weekend and locked on to at least the broad scale pattern around 9-10 days out. Which is mind boggling since now SIXTEEEN years later that would still be a magnificent feat of model performance. I had a Nokia mini-brick phone at the time, for Bob Saget’s sake…

We’re losing January on the CFS. The cold has been trending EAST. At least February offers some hope for COLD onshore FLOW.

Well, whadda ya know. 12z ECMWF kept with this solution. It times the shortwave pretty close to ideal with the southern energy and also strengthened it a decent amount. That means more lift, more moisture, and more snow on Thanksgiving for SD/NE/IA. Look at the difference between the 12z and 00z ECMWF runs by Thanksgiving morning. That lobe of energy is pivotal to a white Thanksgiving for this area.