I wouldn't worry too much, I still don't think the surface temp output does a great job with detecting low level cold pools like that. That would be a respectably chilly pattern at least next week.

Apparently the ECMWF loses its ability to interpret an inversion after day 10.

I'm thinking that the northern lobe of energy cutting off within the next 24-36 hours not only helps our chances for SD/NE/IA but also helps energize the southern portion a bit more to give it some extra oomph. This could be some homestretch good news for everyone, IF the Euro is right in it's handling. Big if. Difference in vorticity if those energies are phased well (12z) vs not lined up together/not as strong northern (00z).

It almost has to flip well before Feb unless this is going to be an absolute freakish outlier like 1933-34. That one had a December that was off the charts wet here and off the charts cold just our north so that isn't likely to repeat.

Is that the new 12/4/24?