I was just looking at the satellite picture and noticed something. There is some very cold air coming off Canada into the Pacific. You only see those type of clouds when there is really cold air. I'm also posting a screenshot of how cold it is too.

12z Euro looks like it's taking a step towards retrogression at day 10. I don't care what it shows beyond with the new, silly extended forecast.

We’ll see where the month ends up. You are correct that the eastern cold pattern is exceeding my expectations (at least on guidance..there is time for things to change still).

Sounds bleak for December. Good news is you didn't see this coming, so perhaps there's hope.

I’d be cautious conflating subseasonal variability associated with the MJO/etc to seasonal signals. The two are not always mutually exclusive. Well, the CONUS-wide drought is reminiscent of the 1930s.