I’d be cautious conflating subseasonal variability associated with the MJO/etc to seasonal signals. The two are not always mutually exclusive. Well, the CONUS-wide drought is reminiscent of the 1930s.

Might be more of an orange creamsicle.

I gave my thoughts on December many times but I’ll repeat them again. I think there are two phases to the December pattern following the +PNA start. 1) I think December grows warm/zonal (nationally) with time. Could evolve into a pattern similar to December 2005 or 2007. 2) Towards the end of the month and/or into the new year, I expect a substantial -EPO and series of arctic airmasses to invade the lower-48. I expect this round will have a higher chance at including the PNW.

Yeah, February has been on a pretty wild run the past 20 years. 2006, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 all had measurable snow. Probably due for a few more dud Februaries.

MLK day. Annual tradition for dewey to call for a white one.