BUT

Still nothing

Buffs getting smoked by weak Kansas team.

Weren’t we just lamenting the fact the euro couldn’t even forecast surface temps correctly 10 days out. Now we are looking 40+ days out.

Ricky at LOT did a nice layout of the storm situation. Also mentioned the concerns near the lakeshore for Chicago. For the all important busy Thanksgiving travel period, there are a few features of interest. The past few model cycles have shown an increasing signal for warm advection and frontogenesis driven period of snow (modest accumulations) and associated travel impacts late Tuesday night into/through the Wednesday morning commute. In collaboration with neighboring offices, adjusted PoPs into the (30%) chance range across the area. Even more notably, a fairly moisture laden southern stream wave is likely to emerge from the southern Rockies during this period. Strongly confluent flow over northeastern North America caused by a deep PV lobe near James Bay will tend to cause more zonal flow less prone to strong amplification of the southern stream wave. With that said, one of the key sensitivities in the forecast is the potential for a northern stream wave crossing the northern Rockies to phase with the southern stream mid-level wave. This constructive interaction (or lack thereof) has major implications on the track, strength, and wintry impacts caused by the surface low pressure system passing to our south later Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Given the noteworthy increase in ensemble membership for a stronger system tracking farther north near the Ohio River Valley, increased PoPs into the 30-50% range area-wide Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving. The higher PoPs are still indicated south of I-80 to account for the slightly more suppressed solutions that comprise a sizeable ensemble membership of their own. Lower-level thermal progs appear cold enough for a primarily wet (due to temps generally near/above 32F) snow event, barring a much stronger solution which would bring the rain/snow line farther north. For this reason, did hold onto a chance of rain primarily south of I-80 Wednesday evening/night. Northeast winds off the mild waters of Lake Michigan may pose some p-type and/or accumulation efficiency issues along the lakeshore, including Chicago, if the stronger/wetter outcome comes to fruition. Nevertheless, the Wednesday afternoon into Thanksgiving period bears close watching for accumulating snow and travel impacts in the general region. Regardless of how Wednesday PM-Thanksgiving Day plays out, another northern stream trough could bring a chance of light snow/snow showers Thanksgiving night into early Friday.