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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#9551
stuffradio

Posted 28 February 2018 - 12:10 PM

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Ok. I'll just delete the one and move the post over

I merged them.


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#9552
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 12:15 PM

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Created a March thread already

Crazy how fast time is going...seemed like yesterday we were looking out on the clown range of the GFS towards MLK Day with very high hopes!

#9553
bainbridgekid

Posted 28 February 2018 - 12:30 PM

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Seattle NWS take on the Friday morning potential:

 

Heights will steadily fall at 500 mb as an upper low drifts
southeastward out of the Pacific. Rain showers will continue and
snow levels will drop to between 1,000-2,000 ft by Thursday as
colder air aloft moves in. The weather may get more interesting by
Friday morning around 12z as the column cools even further. A
band of precip moving in may take advantage of wet bulbing effects
to allow some snow to mix in with the rain 12-15Z Friday morning.

Snow levels look to fall down to around 500 ft. Temps will be
marginal which would favor limited accumulation. Then the models
feature warming in the low levels after 15Z, so it would be a very
narrow window that would limit impacts, but given the rush hour
commute time frame, will monitor this closely today.
The upper
low will weaken and drift inland and the heights rise by Saturday
so a warming and slow drying trend is expected over the weekend,
as rain turns more showery and diminishes in coverage.


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Mountlake Terrace 2017-18 snowfall:

 

11/3: 0.25"

11/5: 0.25"

12/24: 4"

2/18: 0.5"

2/21: 1"

2/25: 1"

3/23: 0.25"

 

Total: 7.25"

 

 


#9554
Geos

Posted 28 February 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Seattle NWS take on the Friday morning potential:

 

Heights will steadily fall at 500 mb as an upper low drifts
southeastward out of the Pacific. Rain showers will continue and
snow levels will drop to between 1,000-2,000 ft by Thursday as
colder air aloft moves in. The weather may get more interesting by
Friday morning around 12z as the column cools even further. A
band of precip moving in may take advantage of wet bulbing effects
to allow some snow to mix in with the rain 12-15Z Friday morning.

Snow levels look to fall down to around 500 ft. Temps will be
marginal which would favor limited accumulation. Then the models
feature warming in the low levels after 15Z, so it would be a very
narrow window that would limit impacts, but given the rush hour
commute time frame, will monitor this closely today.
The upper
low will weaken and drift inland and the heights rise by Saturday
so a warming and slow drying trend is expected over the weekend,
as rain turns more showery and diminishes in coverage.

 

Glad they're sounding optimistic.  :)


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 25.86", 09/16

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 42°, 09/18

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#9555
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 01:41 PM

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Attached File  4EF5EA60-419B-4B04-BBC0-B44009070085.png   269.19KB   1 downloads
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#9556
Esquimalt

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Wow looks like some significant snows up through Langford, Metchosin and Shawinigan Lake.  A couple of degrees cooler and probably widespread accumulations.  



#9557
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:12 PM

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Wow looks like some significant snows up through Langford, Metchosin and Shawinigan Lake. A couple of degrees cooler and probably widespread accumulations.

Most of that is shown falling tomorrow morning as it’s picking up some convective activity around Victoria early tomorrow. It’s probably all or nothing with a high bust potential.

#9558
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:34 PM

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Looks like the best 3km NAM yet for south Puget Sound.


  • HighlandExperience likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#9559
Esquimalt

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:36 PM

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Most of that is shown falling tomorrow morning as it’s picking up some convective activity around Victoria early tomorrow. It’s probably all or nothing with a high bust potential.

The NAM has scored well lately.  Any thoughts?  



#9560
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:37 PM

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I'm sure this is overdone but it looks nice. 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png


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#9561
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:40 PM

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The NAM has scored well lately. Any thoughts?

Who knows. Those small convective cells are hard to forecast with much accuracy. Maybe, maybe not

#9562
hawkstwelve

Posted 28 February 2018 - 03:06 PM

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#9563
jakeinthevalley

Posted 28 February 2018 - 03:45 PM

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NWS PDX uses the term "flash freeze" to describe the possibility of icy roads Friday morning.

Do they even know what that means on this forum?
  • MR.SNOWMIZER likes this

#9564
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 03:49 PM

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NWS PDX uses the term "flash freeze" to describe the possibility of icy roads Friday morning.

Do they even know what that means on this forum?

Jim took over the NWS PDX!! No wonder we haven’t seen him here the last few days!
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#9565
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 03:51 PM

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Hour 252 is looking good on the 18z!

#9566
TT-SEA

Posted 28 February 2018 - 04:08 PM

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NWS PDX uses the term "flash freeze" to describe the possibility of icy roads Friday morning.

Do they even know what that means on this forum?

Very appropriate.

12Z ECMWF shows upper 30s at PDX by 10 a.m. on Friday and almost 50 there by Friday afternoon. Sounds like a deep freeze. :)



#9567
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 05:35 PM

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Jim took over the NWS PDX!! No wonder we haven’t seen him here the last few days!

 

Portland NWS is basically the Jim of NWS offices.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#9568
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:29 PM

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Portland NWS is basically the Jim of NWS offices.

 

Good one!


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#9569
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:46 PM

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Looks like some pretty heavy rainfall about to move into the Portland metro. Nice dynamic front to close out the month.

 

44/39 here today.



#9570
MossMan

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:27 AM

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Looks like some pretty heavy rainfall about to move into the Portland metro. Nice dynamic front to close out the month.

44/39 here today.

You mean to open up the month. 😉

#9571
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:49 AM

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You mean to open up the month.

 

Sure.