All Activity

For the early afternoon SRH is limited but CAPE is huge. The CAPE is probably overstated given entrainment, but this does certainly support large hail Later in the day the hodograph blows out as the LLJ kicks in. This looks more like a QLCS tornado threat as a presumably linear feature moves in.

We've got a moderate for severe from SPC and for rain from WPC: Some ML guidance shows the highest threat more towards my area like nadocast: But others like CSU is a bit further west: I'm inclined to think the biggest severe weather threat will be further west towards OKC. I expect to see several strong tornadoes and reports of very large hail. As the storms congeal we will get a wind/QLCS threat morphing into a heavy rain/flood threat overnight. I don't think we will get anything truly crazy, but a couple of inches wouldn't shock me.

Are you talking about the 8 weeks of July and August? Because it almost always rains in June and September with only a few exceptions. SEA averages .60 in July and .97 in August. So in order to have a rainfall every 2 weeks it would need just 2 each month. July and August in recent years has been an anomaly.

Last summer had some really nice thunderstorms in May and August/September here

Like scared there might be a marine layer that doesn’t burn off until 11 or so some days scared?

The anal logs look pretty good for this summer, I wouldn't worry about it. And if it gets warm, just cool down. You'll be fine.

I’m scared for this summer

Well, I forgot to update this little development. A big nothingburger thankfully in terms of conflict even if it was very out of the ordinary. But it was a wakeup call to Israel. I am reading that Iran spent some $60 million in it's launch of it's assortment of cannon fodder. I use that term because Iran was sending a message and not its good stuff, as any research would show. The response cost? About $3 billion! The fact that the U.S., Israel, and Jordan all participated in intercepting the low cost drones and missiles and still a few managed to strike Israeli land is one hand a testament to the effectiveness of high tech interception, BUT it is also a sobering reality for the U.S. and Israel that if Iran wanted to play hardball, it would be mass destruction in Israel. That is very unlikely. What is very likely; however, is the fact that it is a confirmation to Iran that there is a massive cost/benefit in its favor regarding its effectiveness of its long game: proxy war and skirmishes. It's draining Israeli money and costing U.S. taxpayer money. Israel needs to get this through their heads: They are on borrowed time in terms of what the global community will tolerate - act accordingly. This article spells it out nicely: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/israel-economy-deterioration-worsens-as-gaza-conflict-and-other-hostilities-grind-on.html And before smooth-brained Andrew excoriates me in another unread-by-me reply, no, I do not support Iran's government. They are religious whack jobs oppressing their own people... just like the religious right whack jobs keeping Netanyahu in power. Two sides of the same coin: Delusional religious whack jobs who should drop dead already. I am pretty sure the liberal/moderate Jews and Muslims would rejoice.

Trough axis should move through by midnight

In the last 10 years, Seattle has seen a whopping 3 rain events totaling more than 0.25” rain in July. That’s it. In my experience, a drizzly convergence zone behind a marine push totaling 0.05” is where most of the July rain comes from.

What's up with those crazy cold and warm anomalies in the Atlantic off the coast of USA/Canada? Much better than the opposite...

Is it climo for the PS area to get a decent rainfall every couple of weeks in the peak of summer? I might believe a light sprinkle every 2-3 weeks, and maybe a decent rainfall once a month, but I have a hard time believing every 2 weeks. Maybe I'm wrong though. And just so you know, in the summertime we get thunderstorms occasionally, the month of July here averages .66" of rain, which I doubt is any drier than Seattle.

.5" in 5 minutes is elite.

Wanna support Palestinian protesters as a non-profit? Kiss your tax-exempt status goodbye! And astroturfing fun, too! https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/free-speech-on-the-ropes-legislation-to-revoke-not-for-profit-status-of-organizations-that-support-palestine-protests-passes-in-house.html

That’s a scary SSTA signature in the Atlantic. Jet fuel.

Just had some incredibly heavy rain move over. Picked up close to 1/2” in 5 minutes. 52 degrees currently. Ended up with a 59/49 spread here today. Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with showers at times.

We went and checked out the Pleasant Hill area after it moved through. Loss of power for many, minor debris and heard of one injury. If that's all, they lucked out.

Tomorrow we are ground zero for action ! A bit nervous and excited.

Good god, we are on fire as a planet right now.

Usually realclear. I enjoy reading both sides. Obviously I read drudge because I see all the articles he links that you parrot in the same context he displays them with.

NFL draft is screwing up ABC's game show schedule once again.

Five ... straight ... days... in ... a ... row ... of ... well ... below ... normal.

Drizzling

He's dead on. The media is hopeless. Good to see Jessica back. She's up there with the best correspondents.

If I found someone that did, would that change your mind?