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  • Activity Stream

    1. 128

      April 2026 Observations and Discussion

      Meso discussion for KC area. It's warm and humid here conditions seem favorable for some tornadoes in the area. The warm front to my north will set-up the best action I think. 0341 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KS...western/northern MO...extreme southeast NE...southern IA...western IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031826Z - 032030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Isolated storm development is underway early this afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front across east-central/northeast KS. With mid 60s F dewpoints and temperatures rising through the 70s F, MLCINH has largely been removed along/east of the cold front and along/south of a northward-moving warm front draped from northeast KS into northern MO and west-central IL. Storm coverage is expected to increase through the afternoon, as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the Great Plains. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and effective shear of 40-50 kt will support organized convection. Storm development near the cold front may initially evolve into supercells, with an attendant tornado and large hail threat. An eventual tendency toward a cluster or linear mode (accompanied by increasing damaging-wind potential) may occur along the cold front, due to increasing storm coverage and interaction. A separate area of supercell potential may evolve along the warm front from northern MO into west-central IL. Any surface-based supercell that can persist near the warm-frontal zone could pose a tornado threat, in addition to large hail and localized damaging-wind potential. Issuance of one or more watches is likely this afternoon, in response to the threats described above.
      Clinton in East of the Rockies
    2. 189

      April 2026 Weather In The PNW

      FWIW... the ECMWF does get sort of AR-ish at the end of the run in 2 weeks.
      TT-SEA in West of the Rockies
    3. 189

      April 2026 Weather In The PNW

      Any precip for the foreseeable future is going to be from meandering ULLs and moving parts in the upper level pattern. Pacific jet is gonna be shut down for a bit, no more ARs anytime soon. On a positive note, the meandering ULLs might actually give California rain. Sacramento had a +8.6 departure for March with 0.14" rainfall for the month, after western WA feasted on rain all of March I think our starving friends south of the Siskiyous can be thrown a few table scraps.
      Omegaraptor in West of the Rockies
    4. 128

      April 2026 Observations and Discussion

      Just curious, who are you talking about?
      Hoosier in East of the Rockies
    5. 189

      April 2026 Weather In The PNW

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      T-Town in West of the Rockies
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