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  • Activity Stream

    1. 5360

      February 2026 Weather in the PNW

      I think a lot of that comes down to the structure of the IPWP/Walker Cell in those winters, functionally it matters as much as ENSO to how the NPAC RWT operates through the cold season. In fact, the IPWP/WPAC is the first thing I look at every winter unless ENSO is overpowering, followed by QBO. It is **so important** and that is true even in the summer when ENSO itself attenuates. You’re literally talking about the most powerful heat engine on the planet there in the tropical Indo-West Pacific, and almost all modes of global weather/climate variability teleconnect to it in some way..ENSO, Asian monsoons, Siberian High, NPAC High/Aleutian Low, MJO, Pacific Meriodonal Mode, etc. The QBO is then subsequently important in modulating (in)stability and convection over the IPWP and other parts of the deep tropics (and the stratosphere) that impact aspects of seasonal/subseasonal variability which matter to mid-latitude weather weenies like us. The actual effects depend on the state of the IPWP/ENSO (and some solar thrown in as well). So you see where I’m coming from. It’s a lot more than taking the sign/amplitude of ENSO and QBO straight up. The structure of ENSO/IPWP, and the exact stage of QBO cycle (not just easterly or westerly, but whether it’s easterly or westerly shear that is descending, especially just above 50mb).
      Phil in West of the Rockies
    2. 5360

      February 2026 Weather in the PNW

      It's been awful. Still have our statistically snowiest month ahead...but this map pretty much says it all.
      Front Ranger in West of the Rockies
    3. 943

      February 2026 Observations & Discussions

      Surprised to have our first Severe T-Storm warning of 2026. It is neat to see the darkness of the upcoming storm. Hopefully we get some moisture.
      Walt in East of the Rockies
    4. 943

      February 2026 Observations & Discussions

      We will gladly take the moisture though… the last snow helped out however we need a lot more in whatever form it comes in.
      Bryan1117 in East of the Rockies
    5. 5360

      February 2026 Weather in the PNW

      16” in 6 hours is legit, I haven’t seen sustained rates like that down here since that epic deformation band during the blizzard of 2016. Can’t believe that was a decade ago now, wtf. Though I did experience such rates in Plymouth MA chasing that nor’easter in January 2022, which was a wild experience but my decision to stay right on the beach at the pilgrim sands hotel was comically stupid in hindsight..the freezing spray and screaming wind compacted everything into 1/3rd of what fell just 1 mile inland, and the waves/surge flooded and smashed the bottom floor windows just before the power went out. Forced me to nope out and drive home as soon as the road was cleared at ~ 9PM that eve, no bueno.
      Phil in West of the Rockies
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