Meatyorologist

I don't know enough about ENSO cycles to say anything definitive on the subject... maybe @Phil can answer that after he returns back from his bunker deep within the Appalachians.

Yep. the amount of eye-gouging over run-to-run model variability is quite amusing. Overall the patterns being depicted are quite similar to one another, with minor perturbations causing expected downstream influences. 06z could be the Arctic express of a generation, followed by a similar 500mb pattern on the 12z, only shifted 200 miles west, so we get an AR event instead! Regardless, NA gets kold beyond ten days; that is a given.

I think if we roll the dice again with -ENSO, we come out much snowier than we have so far this winter. Though of course, let's wait until summer before declaring La Niña... that spring barrier can be very deceptive.

I don't think it works that linearly. Upgrading the architecture of a major global model requires pinpoint adjustments, each with their own biases that need correcting. The final product should be more accurate, sure, but as of right now it's tough to say.

Yellowstone below -50F...

Back up now! Massive LR incoming.

DP/2m Temp conversion in Tacoma signaling a moistening profile. This is why flurries are being reported there.

Some snow bands trying to make their way north. Could moisten the low levels a tad.

Breezy out of the southeast here. Dry and cold, 42/25 spread here.

I think a few members on this forum have as well.

Snowing on the Washington coast, as well.

Happy for y'all down in Oregon. Since it looks like we'll have most of our precipitation carved out by east winds up in our burg, I'm living vicariously through you Oregonians. Plus we already had a very dynamic and exciting event on the solstice. Rooting for a massive overperformance down there!

Gorgeous.

GEFS continues the look of an amplified NE Pac ridge with lowered heights over the western US. Maybe a weaker signal over that latter part, but at this point it's just run-to-run noise and there is no indication that it's lost the pattern. Continued theme of an increased chance for a cold snap in the 8-16 day range.

LR dumps a massive amount of cold air into the continent, though not quite into the lowlands. Very close, though. Overall, the potential remains great.