Meatyorologist

@Phil What say you on the SPV this winter? Lots of NWPac ridging on the extended ensemble suites, which as I understand only reduces pressure on the vortex. Makes sense that ensembles have it strengthening too. You think come later in December it could weaken w/ some Waffle-zombie?

It'll work out this year. Subzero highs for everyone!

Likely an old phreatic volcanic eruption. Surfacing magma and hot gas + groundwater = boom boom. Whole region is a volcanic breeding ground.

me agrees

5.12" so far in Sacramento. Still several hours left.

You don’t come across radar images like this very often.

Looking very wet Thursday up here.

about 187 kilotons of tnt

Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons!

You heard it guys, no soccer!

From my eye, nothing about this storm spells danger for the inland NW. Mayyybe the coast, but even then, nothing outside climatology, save for the waves, which will be top-tier. These big storms blow up offshore; more often than not further out than modeled; and then curve up into VI. Like clockwork. There are like three to five of them every storm season, often more. This one just happens to possess a very deep central pressure.

December 2013 came out of nowhere... Just a perfect combination of clear weather, long nights, snowcover, and a decent airmass. That -10 at KEUG will stand the test of time.

And the there's the fact that our sample size is simply too small to make an accurate depiction of our winter. Analogs stop being viable in any sense pre-1960s and are ill advised before the 1990s. With AGW and natural flux in pattern tendencies it's almost impossible to say. As great as some of these outcomes were, they could have done better (or worse) if the die had been rolled in a different way. There is never an analog for the winter that's never happened before... Just look at 2018-19! El Niño with no hope into the final stretch of the season, people bringing their boats out to clean them. Then, POW! Huge, memorable February, the best such month in a generation.