Meatyorologist

Pull the timing ahead by one day and it's on my day off!

Monday's setup is almost identical to June 2nd earlier this year, adjusting for late July climo in the NH. Weak impulse from the NNW picking up anomalous moisture from the NPac and dumping it over us about as efficiently as possible.

An inch for my house would be incredible

A PERFECT BALANCE to the barely noticeable heat of this month. I think we're due now for eight consecutive 100F burgers south of 50°N and four more decades of ridging

Got down to 52F at KSEA. Impressive.

This is a great thread. Does anyone have data on the 1850s or earlier?

Heaven

It'll be dependent on exact timing for sure. Looks like a fickle setup with a 15-20F range of potential highs in the puget sound area.

GFS is more generous. Mid 70s by 18z. It can underrepresent midlevel cloudcover though and it's hard to bet against the Euro.

Sunday also looks like a marine layer day.

Monday will probably have a late morning high since the main frontal rain bands arrive in the afternoon. Might push 80F if cloudcover is thin; that airmass ahead of it is not cold. Tuesday is a much different story. Moist residual low level marine airmass in place while weak ridging builds overhead. Similar situation to the other day, might not hit 70F or even see the sun.

With the colder air aloft it was bound to happen

I can't imagine any thunderstorm pattern we get through early August will bring much dry lightning. We have an unusually warm and moist north Pacific to advect from, and we'll almost certainly avoid a large ridge in that timeframe, so no pressure-cooked dry desert airmass to tap into either. They'd probably be #whet and falling through PWAT's in excess of 1".

What we're looking at D4+ is an amorphous blob of warm, near-saturated air, amidst impulses of varying strength and timing saturating it at will. The question is when, and how much rain do we get? Not a very typical summer weather pattern in recent years. The CMC is quite generous, with multiple impulses; maybe even some deformation and lightning on the 2nd.

@Phil And once again, it doesn't matter. Officially speaking it's a +0.3F day in the books, check the preliminary July summary for yourself. The auto generated climate reports aren't official.