Meatyorologist

...And early outlooks advertise a weaker than normal SPV this winter!

Eh, one errant AR and you could get like 1.5" in a day despite nothing else all month... And would be pretty easy to get, even (especially) in this ridgy regime. Risky bet on the under!

Considering you are made of it, that would not be good!

I mean what the hell even is this garbage?? A ridge extending from Russia to Ontario.

Given the belated start, it's almost as if the monsoon were shifted forward in time by a month!

What amazes me is that what is being forecast is essentially a perma-heatwave, with high temps running 7-15F above average for days and days on end. Even with the heatwaves earlier this summer, the patterns themselves broke down within a week. There is no pattern breakdown upcoming... Every day looks to hit summertime levels into the indefinite future. Absolutely confounding, bizarre predictions for October. A complete displacement from our actual climate... A figurative jaunt 800 miles to the south for much of the region. For comparison, in July, this would mean highs above 90F for two plus weeks straight at KSEA. Only thing preventing a similar outcome now is the grace of lowering sun angles. The only even closely relevant precedent would be October 1991... And even then, there was a relatively even split between October climo and strong ridging, frequently trading between highs in the 70s and 60s. What is being forecast is 70F+ weather for....eternity?

150 hours in, and the only banging going on is the kind that involves both my head and the wall to my left.

...drought?

18z gonna be a banger, calling it now

I have a feeling it's going to crash hard in December.

It would come from a reduction on outgoing energy, that way it builds up in the Troposphere instead of radiating out into space. And I should impress that the energy imbalance measured could very well be indistinguishable at a macro scale. Or perhaps it could be demonstrating itself transiently. The whole atmos/cryo/hydro system is so complex and interconnected that there is very little way of telling just *how* much energy has been added to the sfc system, or what the hell it is even doing to it, tangibly. Basically what I am trying to say is that both @snow_wizard and @TT-SEA have been enjoying their hot dogs lately, seeing as their posts regarding the Hunga Tonga eruption have been very... presumptuous... in nature, regarding its current and future impacts, as well as the scope of its effects.

Temperature isn't the only way energy can be stored in a system. Given that stratospheric temperatures are at unprecedented record lows, multiple standard deviations below both running averages and previous records, it is demonstrably true that there is an energy imbalance in the atmosphere. Where that energy has gone, I don't know. Maybe the world temperature departure would be +0.1F instead of +0.2F, maybe the earth's oceans are a little warmer, or certain weather systems (ridges, large scale storms with tropical-midlatitude connections) are amplified. Maybe that energy is being put into evaporation, or glacial melt. Either way, it's there. If it weren't, the stratosphere wouldn't be so cold.

hahahaha!!!

Too smoky and warm for me today. At this point the only '70's or '80's I want to see in the weather forecast is snowfall accumulations.

Brian O'Keefe just hit his first base hit! But before you celebrate...