BLI snowman

Like Jim pointed out, the more unusual aspect is the already historically dry astronomical summer period. Throwing an additional near bone dry 6 weeks on top of that would put this in even more rarified air.

1929-30 got its jet stream activity out of the way kind of all at once in December. And even that featured a suppressed arctic airmass that bled through the Fraser River and delivered some nice snow from about Everett-north. 1936-37 kind of did the same thing with a brief +EPO stretch in December before that reversed dramatically in January. 1942-43 had a real onslaught of storms beginning in late October, with a top tier wet November. Definitely pretty anemic in the early fall, though.

Yes, in the winter. Again we generally want to see that stronger forcing at times in the fall as an early indicator of cold air movement up north. Truly wall to wall amplified cold seasons are incredibly rare anyways. Maybe 1976-77 and a handful of others in the last century. If we haven't seen a strong jet or signs of consolidated patterns by late November then the chances are high that we will see one arise in mid-winter and quite literally have it rain on our parades. And right now Western Canada is still being flooded with mild air anyways and there's no jet to boot. Just a complete lack of any meaningful cold anomalies across the entire continent this month once again. Even AK has been quite mild again. Just have to reiterate that there just really aren't many favorable signs at the moment.

Yes, in the winter. Falls that are more or less completely devoid of any jet stream activity tend to offset that in DJF. Even favorable, thoroughly blocky winters like 2013-14 and 1978-79 both had very wet Septembers in the region with strong early fall jet activity. Nothing remotely similar this year.

Complete lack of a jet stream says otherwise.

First half of October is already lost.

A splitty winter could still do it for the SW. Even with a weaker jet, like 2004-05.

Amazingly stuck pattern.

Still trying to find a single thing to be positive about (other than the temp anomalies) for fall and beyond.....So far no luck.

I think it can be summed up with "NAM".

Seattle sports FTL!

Tim thinks that if it rains at all during the month it equates to "winter". Those 75 degree showery days in early June sure felt like winter. Brrrrr!!!!!!!

October hurricanes can be fun with the crazy phasing turns they sometimes take on once they reach the mid latitudes and become extratropical and interact with the jet stream. Obviously not a likely scenario there but there certainly are some examples of crazy stuff like that happening during the month (Typhoon Frida in 1962, Hazel in 1954, Sandy in 2012, the big UK storm in 1987, the Perfect Storm in 1991).

So sorry for your guys' loss. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you need anything. We're here for you.

Either way we're now absolutely due or even overdue for a 65+mph south wind event.