BLI snowman

Cool. The length of the current dry stretch also exceeds the current month and includes a regionally dry March and later February as well for places further south. It's been significant.

Most places would need a few inches of rain to even sniff average at this point. Vaguely possible but not likely. GFS is nowhere close, Euro is better.

Very, very unlikely that the next 60 days are anywhere near as anomalously wet/cloudy as this period has been dry and sunny. Also very unlikely that you'd be anywhere near as dismissive of it if it were. 2010 being living proof of that.

Olympia, located in extremely drought prone south of I-90ville, has seen just 3.34" of rain in the last 50 days. That's the 2nd driest on record for that stretch of calendar, after 1986 with its 3.19" of rain. Interestingly 2020 is in 3rd place with 3.44".

So zen.

Really unlikely anywhere south of I-90, according to my super model.

Except it doesn't happen in any dry period here. We actually don't see 12+ wildfires a week in midwinter or with (most) spring dry periods. Phil also corrected you on this the other day when he posted the current Soil Moisture Anomalies for the region, which can be a strong short term indicator of fire danger. They are in fact very low regionwide right now, included in flooded out King County, which can (shockingly) be very conducive to wildfire danger when combined with persistent very warm surface temps as we've been seeing.

More spring perfection in waterlogged western WA https://komonews.com/news/local/level-2-evacuations-in-effect-for-homes-near-green-valley-wildfire

Hoping they avoid any destructive fires in that timeframe.

Yes, we had 90+ readings on the westside on April 7. Then more a couple weeks later. It was a record warm month for many stations.

Might have helped that it wasn't preceded by several of the warmest and driest warm seasons on record. 1951 was also a temperate summer overall, with what looked to be a fair amount of marine influence. Only eight 90+ days at PDX that year, fewer than any summer there since 2011.

It got started with a nice thunderstorm outbreak after a 90 degree day on April 30th. Broke the door open for an extended wet stretch.

May can be pretty wet. See 1998.

Overdue at this point. The dry freaks are living on borrowed time.

May 23