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snow_wizard

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  1. And no clear indication of a follow up ridge on the 500mb level progs.
  2. For those who think extreme summer dryness is something new for the NW...think again. For the Puget Sound Lowlands out of the 10 driest Julys all but 2 were from 1960 or earlier. As I've been saying overall dry conditions used to be more common, due to more influence from the Pacific High. Here are the top 10 dry Julys for the Puget Sound Lowlands. 1. 1922 = 0.00" 2. 1958 = 0.01 3. 1960 = 0.01 4. 2013 = 0.03 5. 1896 = 0.04 6. 1930 = 0.05 7. 2017 = 0.05 8. 1914 = 0.06 9. 1926 = 0.06 10. 1910 = 0.12
  3. It's been 47 days IMBY without measurable rain. Up until today there hadn't even been a trace since June 14.
  4. The EPS is far from sold on a return to warm ridging after the trough. The PNA only goes very slightly positive after the trough on the mean.
  5. Looking at the sat pic it appears the Puget Sound region is in the zone of heaviest cloud cover today with lots of clearing both east and west of us. Nice chance for the house to cool down.
  6. I'll be interested to see how the possible ridge after the trough evolves in future model runs. I'm hoping it will be shorter lived which could indicate this stuff is winding down. No doubt the coming trough is going to cool things way down at least for several days.
  7. It only dropped to 71 here, but it's only managed to rise about 1.5 degree so far since sunrise.
  8. We sure lucked out today. 850s still high enough for a quite hot day, but the thick clouds have us way lower than what was forecast.
  9. The temperature hasn't budged here in the past 3 hours. The clouds are really helping today. Currently a comfortable 72.
  10. Positive (westerly) 200mb zonal wind anomalies are a very ninaish signal.
  11. Obviously anything that far out isn't etched in stone yet, but given the context this year another shot of warmth after the trough is more likely than not. There has been indication that one will be short lived though. At any rate the trough looks looks pretty decent.
  12. I'm actually kind of disappointed a few drops of rain spoiled our totally rainless month here. Those are extremely rare. Still only a trace though.
  13. That is one legit ULL / trough the models are showing for next week. The ECMWF is going with 0.8" for SEA. 850s drop well below normal as well. We'll see where it goes from there.
  14. We have really lucked out here. The SW flow aloft has kept all of the clouds and gunk just to the south and east of us. We're obviously in a bit of an inversion today. It could be a lot hotter given the 850s.
  15. I knew we have been on a roll for hot summers this century, but I didn't realize just how ridiculous it is until I took a closer look. Just looking at SEA they have not had an August average 67.9 since 2011, and it hasn't averaged 65.0 or below since 2001. Pretty astounding stuff when you consider their 1945 to 2020 average is 65.3, and their 1945 to 1975 average was 63.8. I looked at the Landsburg records just to make sure it's not a UHI or third runway situation for SEA, and for the most part it's not. With the models indicating a legitimate cool period coming up you have to wonder if this could be the year where these insane streaks are broken. The odds are certainly against it from a persistence point of view, but it has to happen eventually. Feel free to post August stats from other cities. At least for SEA the ridiculous warmth is even more pronounced for August than for July. There have been a couple of cooler Julys mixed in there.
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