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About snow_wizard

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    The Snow Wizard

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    Covington, WA

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  1. The EPS slowly progresses the block eastward again late in the run. Very much like the parallel GFS tonight.
  2. Not even close. I think I'm running +3.5 or so. I've done quite a bit better than you for lows this month so far.
  3. Looks like I'll finish with a crisp 45 / 31 for the day. Can't wait for the really nippy stuff to set in. The Euro is showing some pretty solid low temps several of the next 10 days. BTW I think something good will really be emerging on the models for early Feb over the next couple of days.
  4. It appears the ECMWF weeklies have gone crazy with the snowfall as we get into Feb. By far the best mean yet with over 10 inches being shown for SEA.
  5. Looks like the models are already beginning to factor in the expected MJO wave right around Feb 1. The last two GFS runs have ended well and the 12z GFS ensemble in particular shows 850s on the way down again at the end. The EPS mean shows it to some extent and the EPS control shows the huge block moving eastward and a major trough in the NW as well. We could be looking at a situation with a decent pattern over the next 10 days followed by a brief period where the block migrates too far west and then comes back again.
  6. Climate change is a constant. It has never ceased to change since the planet formed. The whole man is causing it theme is highly flawed. Very high chance the planet would be warming right now even if man wasn't here. I'll be very interested to see if the solar grand minimum reverses the trend though. There is probably a lag effect with this stuff.
  7. The fact they have trees at 7200 feet puts them way up on WA. Up here it's barren that high up.
  8. It appears the second half of the winter will be a MUCH different story. You don't know how lucky you are to have blue sky like that BTW!
  9. No doubt the trough in the 7 to day 10 period has steadily trended east and colder and now the trough after that has trended east on both the regular GFS and the parallel. Looks like a trend.
  10. Looks like our first round of northerly flow has kicked in here. Puffy clouds moving at a nice clip from the north. Looks like it's going to clear out. Maybe some frost tonight!
  11. This run is actually colder in the believable range. No sense of paying much attention to beyond day 10 right now.
  12. I really like how weak the surface pressure gradients are shown to be during the reign of the cold trough. It ranges from weak offshore flow to very weak onshore. Weak gradients are usually more favorable for snow in this area at least. Cold air is able to stay put with no down sloping from too much east wind or cold air getting scoured out from too much onshore flow.
  13. The EPS has trended slowly better with every run with the 6 to 10 day period. Beyond that I think big changes could still be possible with little warning.
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