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Everything posted by snow_wizard

  1. Big drop in the PNA forecast on tonight's EPS around the 24th and 25th. We'll have to see if this might be the beginning of something that could evolve into a cold snap. Interestingly it's almost the same temperature now that it was at this time last night in spite of a considerably higher max going into tonight. Currently 46.
  2. This will be interesting to watch. Another very complicated evolution coming up.
  3. I have to admit this a bit worrisome for the dry situation. The snowpack is fine, but the vegetation is getting a dangerously early start on getting dry.
  4. It is certainly bad on high temps for this area. Not sure why. It's usually better than the GFS for lows though.
  5. Wow. The strongest low the ECMWF shows over the NC and NE Pacific a week from now is a pathetic 1002mb way out there.
  6. I think you mentioned it a few days ago. You said the only way we might see some cool weather would be if it was back door.
  7. I do have to admit it would be bad for exacerbating the early drying of the vegetation we're seeing. We do need rain before summer gets here.
  8. Sometimes with offshore flow your area beats Seattle for warmth. It's pretty amazing to see the huge diurnal ranges you've been having.
  9. The NAM is pretty much worthless. How about the ECMWF tonight? You did say some back door cold was possible.
  10. I'll be damned if the ECMWF hasn't caved to the GEM! I would love to see it be right.
  11. Nice. We keep talking about doing raised beds, but haven't gotten to it yet. Definitely a good way to go.
  12. If I ever wanted a full decoupling it would be tonight. For some reason last night didn't quite cool to its potential here. Everything looked perfect, but something kept it slightly mixed. Maybe with the higher mid level temps tonight will be able to reach its potential.
  13. Incredible when you consider how close you live to the ocean. Your numbers have been crazier than here.
  14. I'm enjoying the pattern too. The stats on the low temp side of things are just as amazing. Whether the synoptics match or not this is very much like April 1951. This nice weather couldn't have come at a better time for me. I'm doing a huge engine job on my Expedition and have had almost no days I can't work on it.
  15. Dew points in the upper 20s in many areas right now. Impressive with temps in the 70s. I wonder if OLM might go for a 50 degree range tomorrow.
  16. He's as giddy right now as I am when it's cold. We are so much alike!
  17. OLM ended up with an incredible 76 / 30 day today. A whopping 46 degree spread. Here I had 73 / 38 which still ain't bad. Fun month so far! A nice cold finish would be really nice.
  18. Just noticed the 12z GEM had a way different and colder solution for next week. Sometimes that model comes out on top when it goes rogue like that, but it's not the most likely outcome.
  19. The models are insisting on a big change being in place by the 25th, and the minor shot of cooler air next week. It's really interesting how much cold air is still in play at the end of the month if the 18z GFS is to be believed. A period of well below normal temps after this warm period wouldn't be at all surprising given the track record this year for most places in the US. Pretty sharp variability pretty much everywhere.
  20. Really nice cool signal on the 12z GFS ensemble to finish out the month.
  21. You could very well be right. At any rate I'm sure our time for troughing / cool will return. This is a share the wealth type of year obviously.
  22. The setup is highly abnormal though. -6.5 EPO's don't happen very often. My point was the extreme amplification has given everyone some real cold recently.
  23. It is very late. Cold nights and very dry air are the likely culprits.
  24. I'm highly intrigued that pretty much everywhere in both the US and Europe have had at least one turn at abnormally cold weather over the past several weeks. Very interesting regime we're in right now.
  25. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on a robust and progressive MJO wave right now. It seems like that may favor retrogression of an amplified pattern over a zonal flow outcome. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. I'll be interested to see if the 12z EPS still shows a trough over us by day 10 like the 0z run did.
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