Leaderboard

Catching up. Probably one of the worst weeks I’ve had to exist through since 2020, mostly disconnected from the world, and I come back to see the same shit floating on by like the debris on the Snohomish. I want new comers and old timers. I want people to have just a bit more self awareness to maybe stop when they’re ahead or adhere to that old adage that there has never been a moment in recorded human history where someone’s opinions were changed because of a witty retort. @MR.SNOWMIZER I figure Jim’s absence was a mixture of the political stuff getting axed, the third shitty winter filled with model heartbreak, and ending the season with the usual suspects feeling the need preach to everyone that it was foolish, stupid, and even asinine to put any emotional weight into even a flurry depicted in the GFS. I thought that maybe swallowing my “CNN Fred” pride and unbanning a couple folks would at least bring him some familiar and friendly faces, but I guess not. I hope that Jim gets to experience that 1950 redux once in his life and he’ll come back to share in the joy. @GoldenEars and @SpaceRace22 have a point about lurkers. We average around 15k unique visitors, ~3000 visiting more than once a month, and ~1000 visiting every day with ~10% being users who are registered and only a quarter to a fifth of those being a contributor. Given the state of other non-Facespaceittersocialmediagram communities, it’s pretty ok but it’d be great to see more folks sharing in our communities enthusiasm about our shared passion. It took me a couple years to start posting, only to immediately get weenie tagged by Jim for giving him the “well akshually” treatment over how Mr Rainier wasn’t going to cause any climate impacts should it erupt. Hell, I think for the first couple years anytime I ever posted about sun angles or early signs of fall, I had a couple people jump down my throat about being wrong or something dumb. We don’t exactly extend a warm welcome to new folks, but we don’t shut them out either. Anyway, I need to get some sleep and figure out what the actual fuck is going on with my life. I’ve got some projects for the forum going on that I want to share with everyone before Christmas, I hope you folks enjoy.

I had a long talk with the cardiologist today. Good news, the issue isn't nearly as bad as the nurse made the situation sound!! I have mile stenosis, minor heart enlargement on left ventricle. My ejection fraction is 55%, normal is 50-70. I have elevated blood pressure at times caused from hypertension and stress at work. Most of this can be helped or even fixed with even more changes to my diet that is already clean and and better than most people do and a little more consistent cardio. I'm already very fit, 5ft 8 185lbs and about 12% bodyfat, no drinking or smoking. I'm going to make sure I do 30 minutes of cardio everyday and keep doing my weight training exercises. I feel much better after the discussion, not even any medication required at this time!!! Im going to be getting a cardiogram every 6 months and keep a close eye on the refraction rate, basically how good the heart can move blood in and out of my heart. I will be putting all the natural supplements that can lower blood pressure to the test!!

A classic full latitude retrograde situation is generally a better bet for colder temperatures with the more immediate flow reversal that comes with it. The trough axis moves in from the north and NE, i.e. the cold directions, and depending on the precise trajectory the mesoscale details may or may not allow for snow opportunities going into it. A "prograde" where the block sets up west of us and then progressively moves east is probably a trickier balance, and requires a pretty firm Rex Block to stabilize in a sweet enough spot to strike a real balance for us between moisture and snow. In those cases we'll have the overwater juice required for snow, but will still likely struggle to get as cold. So for places like the Portland metro, we will really struggle to see the cold air advect into the Columbia Basin and any gorge component we see will come later in the game if the block does stabilize. I think a classic case study of the dichotomy between the two would be Februaries 1990 and 1995. Over the same exact dates! (apologies in advance for not having the cool animations, but I'm cheap). In 1990 we went from this look on 2/10 with a too-far-west Aleutian ridge and a major AK trough: to this on 2/12, as the trough slid SE from Alaska in a fairly progressive fashion: In 1995 we went from this look on 2/10 with a major ridge centered just off the West Coast and an arctic airmass over the center of the continent: to this on 2/12, as the offshore ridge retrograded and a 500mb lobe of that arctic airmass moved in from the ENE. In both cases as luck would have it, the Portland area wound up seeing a big snowstorm on the 12th. But as you can see with the 500mb progressions, they were achieved in fairly different fashions.

Plowing complete, for now. Measured 7" and still coming down. Also found a Christmas Fox who LOVES the snow!

~5” of fresh snow just outside Roslyn. Snow still falling and the hot tub is calling, winter bliss is here.

I got accepted to WWU, so I'll be living in a snowier climate soon!

0.00" rain here, but a nice sunset.

Just as in previous nights I am in Damascus visiting my mom at memory care facility. I won't be able to post the 00z GFS due to that. Root for good runs tonight! Be back later. C'MON! Ya gotta believe!!!! 00z GFS in 5 minutes 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 52 minutes

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Even if we have a snowless winter in the lowlands of the Pacific Northwest, our members from more bountiful locales will share pictures and it will be like we all were able to enjoy it.

Hey guys, 40 year resident of western WA, i had moved to central IL about 3 years ago. The last 3 winters have been low snowfall, no major snowfalls, so many rug pulls. I guess they had a decent storm back in 2022. So wish me luck to get over 3 inches because that is the most i have seen on the ground in 3 winters.

There would be HISTORIC weenie meltdowns from those of us in the shadow if this were snow.

I must be top tier notable weather starved because I cannot f*cking wait to get this floody party started. Been 10 years since we shut down the 5 in Woodland due to slip and slide hillsides. Let’s go!!! Plus, if Jim were still alive he’d be telling us how this upcoming pattern locks us in for Arctic cold at some point in the next six months.

First storm of the year! 4.5" so far.

Looks like November isn’t cancelled? On another note, won my first bowling tournament!

Nice little coating of white in North Spokane today!

Had to pull it out and hold it for a moment. It’s no longer fully round (got squished by a slab of beef) but it still felt amazing to touch again.

The sunset is crazy beautiful tonight! The pics don't do it justice. Down to 35.6° already!

Wait a ******* minute, the UKMET looks like the GFS. BOYS WE HAVE SUPPORT GFS at the same time:

AFD from this coming January: 000 FXUS66 KSEW 182345 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 345 PM PST TUE JAN 18 2026 ...CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM EVENT IMMINENT... ...UNSURVIVABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THOSE CAUGHT OUTDOORS... ...THIS IS A STRUCTURAL FAILURE EMERGENCY FOR THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS... .SYNOPSIS... A meteorological scenario of unprecedented violence is currently initiating. A 1052mb Arctic High—the strongest observed in 50 years—has established a deep, sub-freezing dome of air across Western Washington. Simultaneously, a high-amplitude Atmospheric River (AR Category 5), carrying precipitable water values of 1.50" (typhoon remnants), is stalling directly over the region. The result will be a continuous, high-intensity overrunning event lasting 72+ hours. We are facing a snowfall event that will exceed the "100-year" return interval by an order of magnitude. .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... We are out of colors. The 12z and 18z model suites (GFS, ECMWF, NAM-Nest) have remained perfectly consistent, which is terrifying. They are forecasting QPF (Liquid Equivalent) totals of 8 to 10 inches over the Seattle Metro area between tonight and Friday afternoon. In a standard warm-air event, this would be a major flood. However, surface temperatures are locked in the upper 10s to low 20s due to unrelenting Fraser River outflow winds. The Math of Disaster: With a deep isothermal layer at -10C to -12C, snow-to-liquid ratios will be exceptionally high—likely 15:1 or 20:1. Calculation: 6.0" liquid x 15:1 ratio = 90 inches of snow. The Consensus: The ensemble spread is almost non-existent. The probability of exceedance for 72 inches (6 feet) of snow in Seattle, Bellevue, Tacoma, and Everett is now >95%. Phase 1: The "Burial" (Tonight - Wednesday Night) Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will begin around 8 PM. By sunrise tomorrow, we expect 30-40 inches on the ground. Critical Note: The wind will not stop. Fraser outflow gusts of 40-50 mph will create drifts of 10-15 feet in North Seattle and Snohomish County. Phase 2: The "Zone" (Thursday) As the low pressure center pivots, a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ) of extraordinary intensity is forecast to develop and stall over King County. Standard convergence zones drop 6 inches. Models indicate this band will be 20 miles wide and stationary for 12 hours, dropping snow at 5+ inches per hour. This band will act like a concrete mixer, depositing extremely dense, heavy snow on top of the powder layer. .IMPACTS... ...STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE IS LIKELY... 1. Roof Load Failure: The specific gravity of this snowpack, especially with the Thursday compression, will exert a load of roughly 60-80 lbs per square foot. Most residential roofs in Western Washington are designed for 25 lbs/sq ft. Commercial flat roofs (warehouses, grocery stores, big-box retailers) are designed for 20-30 lbs. We anticipate widespread catastrophic structural failures of large-span buildings. DO NOT shelter in grocery stores, gymnasiums, or warehouses. DO NOT attempt to clear roofs during the storm; you will die from exposure or falls. 2. Total Isolation: Roads: WSDOT has ceased operations. Plows cannot move 8 feet of snow. The I-5 and I-405 corridors will be impassable for weeks, not days. If you are not where you need to be by 5 PM today, you will not get there. Power/Heat: We expect the power grid to physically fail. Transmission towers cannot support the ice and snow load combined with 50 mph winds. Expect outages to last 2-4 weeks. Hypothermia will be the primary killer in this event. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... There is no melt. Temperatures remain below freezing. The digging out process will require heavy earth-moving equipment (excavators/loaders) as standard plows will be useless. .AVIATION... KSEA/KBFI/KPAE... AIRFIELD CLOSED. Operations are suspended indefinitely. Structures at KPAE (Boeing Everett) are under extreme load stress monitoring. .MARINE... STORM WARNING in effect. Freezing spray will accumulate inches of ice per hour on vessels. Vessels in marinas may capsize due to top-heavy snow loading. .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Civil Emergency Message...For the entire Puget Sound Region. Blizzard Warning...For all of Western Washington. Avalanche Warning...For the Cascades, Olympics, and steep terrain within the City of Seattle. $$ MIC/WCM/ALL_HANDS

The surface details will undoubtedly change between now and then but the big pieces look like they are going to be on the board and that is always an important step one. Heck, you might already have step two complete with the cold air reservoir in Western Canada, which has been a repeated theme so far this season, not really going anywhere. Weakened PV certainly helps there. Now just need step three (which is usually the toughest to lock down) by getting all the pieces to align just right. It looks promising IMO but obviously still early in the game and the EPO/Alaskan ridge setup is a big question mark. Ultimately though, you really couldn't ask for better timing of the pattern flipping to -PNA to at least give you guys a shot at a white Christmas. Hoping the EPO can play ball and it all works out!

What a change of events in the models over the last 48 hours or so…. December 20-30 looks locked and loaded…

A snowy Christmas and daytime highs.

Finished my light display in the rain this afternoon. Got absolutely drenched. Hopefully it receives a dusting of snow at some point.

Crazy nice sunset! Sunsets and sunrises been stunning

The Euro OP ends with a strong precursor pattern to -PNA, but northern Canada is torching at this time. Looking at the loop it's clear that the Aleutian troughing shown above is giving way to -PNA by amplifying a wave ejecting out of Asia, beginning to break just west of the dateline. This would set us up for 12/20 or so albeit with weakly cold air, unless deeper polar air north of AK gets involved. I've noticed there can be genuine precedent to repeat certain weather patterns at roughly the same time of year, teleconnections permitting. For instance, in this case, we've seen late December shots during La Niña in 2017, 2021, and 2022. The GFS is jumping the gun, clearly. It's latching onto a real signal but too quickly. These are the pepto teasers I expected to see starting around now... Things are on track.

First time I've seen all four at once, I think.

2008

Fresh from the garden for Thanksgiving dinner.

Weather.us added anomaly maps for the historical stuff. Here's 2008

WESTWARD SHIFT BOYYYYYYYS

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

Sad news. While I was sojourning my sweet Molly passed away in early June. I will maintain this avatar in her memory.

I just got a $40,000 raise and the Euro is showing a mondo blast. Today is a good day

Nice afternoon in the snow, we sure could use some more though.

Had a very nice hike at Latourell Falls. Also went up to Vista House briefly where it was pretty breezy and rainy, with very low visibility.

Wow lock it in

I know a lot of people around Puget sound especially weren’t happy with the lack of snow with that one…but that was one hell of a blast. One of the only times I’ve seen ice formations right on the Puget sound. Would’ve been an all timer if we could’ve just gotten an inch or two of snow with it.

Satellite view of the glow of the Northern Lights wrapping around the Northern Hemisphere the last few nights

AI GFS

Good morning.

I got some really news today about my health so honestly i was just looking for something to bring my spirit up if you want the dead honest truth.

Block is moving east.

Nice. This is better than the last couple runs at this point. Getting closer.

Mom sent this today. Grandpa with my dad/aunt on the sled. There’s no nookie like Chinookie! Based on their ages I’m thinking this is January 1950.

Looks like I brought a miracle with me.

November 29 2022, we got about 4” of super heavy wet snow here. IIRC some areas in south Everett with higher elevation got up to 7” from this event. This is the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen fall at this location since I first moved here in 2022.

Awwwwww sh*t

Hey, it's Rob(GradientKeeper) there is an issue with my account. I haven't been able to login for several days. I need to change my e-mail address. @iFred shoot me a message and hopefully we can get this fixed. Thanks