SilverFallsAndrew

CFS agrees with the GFS. Definitely a couple of MOAT's on this run. What is a MOAT you may ask? Mother Of All Troughs

Good news is the EURO has been total garbage all winter. Did you hear what President Biden said?! America is BACK!

Yesterday was the nicest day since early December here.

CFS shows a massive trough about every 10 days through the beginning of April.

The operational is still far better IMO than the GFSv16. GEM looks really good IMO.

GEM opens up a very deep cold trough over the PNW starting next weekend.

BTW I am NOT getting March 2012 vibes from this month. Not saying I don't expect cold troughing at times, all models seem to indicate this. But people forget how wet that month was. It was the 2nd wettest March on record at SLE (Wettest since 1894), and 4th wettest on record at EUG. At face value precip looks around average if not a bit below through the middle of the month. Both locations had about 10" of precip that month.

Yeah bank thermometers are notorious. My car thermometer is pretty close. It usually runs 1F to warm. Of course if the car has been sitting in the sun, right when I start it there is usually some ridiculously warm reading, but it cools down once I start driving.

Gotta be careful of warm bias!

Bang!

The 12z GFS looks like it is going to be pretty good.

Hmmm... Well the other models have been improving on that feature. If the GFS was the holdout I would be more concerned.

That's a pretty solid trough the models are now showing for next weekend. Haven't seen the EURO, but seems like pretty good consensus for it on the other models.

The 8-14 day period looks solidly below normal on the models.

SLE ended up a little below average for temps, and a little above average on precip.

Overall this run is a bit cooler and more active in the mid-range. Long range remains cold, though maybe not quite as extreme as some previous runs.

Boom. Timing sped up about 12 hours on this run.

Noticed February was well below normal across most of Alaska.

Through day 10 the 06z GFS is pretty chilly. This system around day 10 looks like a colder version of late last week.

That surprises me. The ones down in the valley always seem to get hit very hard by snow/ice, especially late season events. I am sure they can grow up here, but it seems like they would get pulverized. There is a type of wild cherry that does grow up here, but its a lot different than the ornamental types.

Seemed like a boring late 90s early 2000s winter.

Yeah, I mean things get going in the valley in March. Not so much up here.

Salem area had 1-2” that day. Pdx had snow too. We had about 4-5” that morning. Those are flowering plums or cherries. Ornamentals which bloom early.

I remember the flowering plums/cherries just got annihilated with the late March snow event in 2012. Down in the valley, they don’t grow up here. I know most trees don’t leaf out there until April.

I always find it strange that everything gets going weeks earlier at 1100’ 250 miles further north than the Willamette valley. An annual phenomenon, at least on this forum. Then at some point Tim will admit the flower pic he posted was one that blooms in the winter. Pretty sure that actually happened once.