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Everything posted by Phil

  1. I’m ready for some severe weather. This season has been an absolute snoozefest so far.
  2. Sounds like Tim weather. Paradise is subjective!
  3. Holy crap. https://www.space.com/hunga-tonga-volcano-eruption-triggers-hurricanes-in-space
  4. This is an incredible compilation of videos of the Andover KS tornado. Easy to see how deaths occur in these.
  5. 12z EPS. Starting to match EOFs for MJO p7/8 under in-situ low AAM, similar to other guidance.
  6. Hopefully. We need at least a decade of cool summers nationally.
  7. So many summers over the last decade have been dominated by +TNH/warm pool forcing. End result is broad Hadley Cell/4CH, which torches the coasts while dropping troughs into the Plains/Midwest. Worst possible pattern for the large population centers across the country.
  8. 2015 was our 7th hottest summer on record as well. Those +TNH patterns are the f**king worst. Similar story with the summer madness. 7 out of the top-10 hottest summers on record have occurred since 2010. At some point it has to end, right?
  9. Those 2015 departures are insane. I don’t think we’ve ever seen more than a +4 departure here in JJA.
  10. Yeah I can imagine those skinny softwoods would sway a lot during windstorms. Where my family lives in Everett there are houses surrounded by 150ft conifers with trunks merely 2ft in diameter. Astonishing they’re even upright. No way trees like that would survive a derecho.
  11. Minus 1 minute outages due to lightning strikes/etc we haven’t lost power since the 2012 derecho. All it took was some modest tree trimming and basic maintenance from PEPCO.
  12. Except the D5 z500 skill scores are higher for the ECMWF. You’re going to be sorely disappointed if you’re placing your eggs in the GFS basket.
  13. The GFS was projecting a deep trough here with a cat3 hurricane slamming New Orleans. It was nowhere close with the large scale pattern. A complete and utter failure.
  14. AAM integral peaks this week. Multiweek decline begins following next CCKW passage across the IPWP.
  15. Would fit the timing of the CCKW passage perfectly. Early/middle part of next week increasingly matches the EOF for p7/8 MJO.
  16. I remember how different the z-circulations looked going into that summer. Was clearly going to be lackluster 4CH that year. Not so lucky this year. The PNW will (probably) avoid it this summer, but the intermountain West and Southwest are probably going to suffer again.
  17. Looks better than 06z to me. Especially out here.
  18. One of the last nice days of the spring here and I’m stuck in an office building under florescent lighting.
  19. It’s raining at Tim’s house. https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php
  20. Cold front trending slower across guidance. Sunday now looks like another day in the mid-90s. The way the Bermuda High is building in reminds me so much of 2010 and 2011. Gonna be a brutal summer, I think.
  21. I actually think August or September could end up warmer/drier than average. There’s a consistent signal for late summer/early autumn ridging in ENSO/low pass analogs.
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