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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Sizeable eruption of Lewotolo volcano in Indonesia. Some estimates have the ash cloud rising to 17.8km.
  2. 1984/85 was the last winter to drop below -10°F here. Wasn’t around yet, but people still remember it because Reagan’s inauguration was moved indoors.
  3. More EPS members have joined the -PNA/-NAO train for the middle of December.
  4. That was a really fluky outcome too, which I find amusing in a geeky sort of way. That major stratwarm in late January was the difference between a blowtorch canonical niño progression and a monthlong -PNA icebox (since momentum deposition was westerly at the time). Impossible to predict something like that months in advance..when the system reaches a bifurcation point of potential states. Love it.
  5. 12z GFS is a thing of beauty. Full on retrogression w/i wave climo and building w2 SSW event. One can dream..
  6. Never seen u post a picture of clouds and drizzle before. I know it’s graphic material but part of me isn’t convinced it rains there at all.
  7. IPWP convection quickly becomes a cold west signal by the middle of December (it’s a warm signal now under +EAMT). Might regret this post later, but I’d honestly be surprised if the lower elevations don’t see accumulating snowfall during the third week of the month. In fact, the entire second half of December would appear to hold potential upon early extrapolation. Most interested I’ve been in a pattern since 2018/19.
  8. That’s..putting it lightly. If I were you guys, I’d take advantage of these next few weeks to rest up. Bound to be some all nighters before long (cough..Rob..cough).
  9. As interesting as the EPS Control run looks, it’s actually one of the less blocky outcomes amongst the array of solutions in the NPAC. At least 20 members are dislodging the TPV into BC/Alberta with blocking over AK/Aleutians and Greenland, bottling significant cold into SW Canada. Much higher potential in a setup like that, versus the ones with a tight vortex remaining at the pole.
  10. The EPS weeklies are actually quite impressive. Strong signal for cold loading in western Canada (and warmth across Greenland + NPAC). Have to double check the baseline climatology, but cold anomalies are actually deeper than the warm anomalies by the middle of January. Usually it’s the opposite signal at that range, with warm anomalies everywhere except Greenland and the Aleutians. Interesting to see this instead.
  11. Especially since it’s La Niña and we know the low pass signal favors western troughing as IPWP forcing becomes more favorable with time (as wavelengths increase). Makes sense that some of the better midwinter patterns out there were preceded by warmer conditions in late fall/early winter. These +WPO/+PNA patterns often correlate to significant wave driving thru NPAC and when forcing becomes more favorable again...
  12. This +WPO/+PNA pattern may suck regionally, but it has longer term benefits too re: wave driving/PV weakening. Get that vortex weak ahead of the return to favorable tropical forcing for PNW, and that cold will spill right in, unshackled.
  13. Had some lightning/thunder last night with the WAA precip. Now a beautiful day with temps approaching 70°F.
  14. Third week of December. Probably going to be +PNA until the middle of the month.
  15. This pattern is more canonical el niño than anything we saw in 2018/19 or 2019/20. It’s transient/intraseasonal, but still interesting.
  16. Good news. That Africa/IO standing wave played a role in last winter’s super PV/+EPO torchfest. Getting rid of that would be nice.
  17. For all the complaining about the warming climate, a lot of people here root for patterns that actively increase the heat budget and warm the globe. Like, pick ur poison already. Lol
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