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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Well a strong jet would flood western Canada with mild air so I’m not sure that’d bode well either.
  2. Climate and economic opportunity are all I look at, really. Could never live somewhere like SoCal or Phoenix.
  3. Hot towers exploding in the upshear flank of the eyewall w/ intense lightning activity. Indicative of rapid intensification. Would not surprise me if peak intensity ends up higher than NHC projections.
  4. The degree of ridging/split flow is impressive for a niña of this intensity, as modeled. Very reminiscent of 1988, though even that year had a better established northern jet.
  5. There’s something wrong with that map. Maximum PWATs here are much higher than up in PA/OH, as are our rainfall records. In fact, Unionville MD holds the world record for most rainfall within 1 minute (1.23”).
  6. It’s late September, my friend. What happens now has no bearing on what will happen this winter. I’m certain you would’ve hated Sep/Oct 1988.
  7. 2010 is an interesting analog. Has performed well in the WPAC and the upcoming pattern bears some resemblance.
  8. There was a flip to a cooler/stormier pattern in October 1967. Will have to see if that happens this year.
  9. Geopotential heights were lower back then. It wasn’t actually all that different, relatively speaking. Can’t nitpick with this stuff. It’s a decent match. Whether that continues remains to be seen, of course.
  10. Yikes..18z EPS is ugly for Tampa. Consensus track is actually right over my Dad’s house in Bradenton. Might fly/drive down there last minute. We’ll see.
  11. It actually is a La Niña like circulation..note the Aleutian High. Problem is it’s very west-based. For early season cold in Western North America you’d want a trough over the NW-Pacific.
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