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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. lol, correct except for the timescale. The warming following a 3+ year niña is evident inside 5 years following the event. But if a more +ENSO tendency follows, it becomes statistically null and void. Longer term warming/cooling via ENSO variability is indeed largely on the centennial scale due to the high degree of multidecadal variability in ENSO behavior. Also, ENSO is just one of several modes of internal variability in ocean/atmosphere circulation/heat transports (all of which affect global climate significantly). We follow ENSO because it’s short term/noticeable, and high amplitude. However, there are other, longer term modes of internal variability (mostly involving the IPWP/seasonality and axisymmetric variability in the z-circulations) that actually have more profound effects on global climate than ENSO does. But they’re understudied and overlooked because they operate on such long timescales that we don’t necessarily realize they exist.
  2. Your temp will suffer the same fate, my brother. The next intradecadal IPWP extension (and reversal of Hadley-Walker intensity ratio) will begin any year now. When it does, the seasonal tendencies of the last decade will invert, with western Canada/PNW blowtorching focused in the winter/spring months, and AL/+PNA/+TNH becoming the low frequency mean-state. I don’t control any of this. Just giving a heads up.
  3. I’m talking about baseline global temps (after removing the ENSO component). Yes there was a prolific spike in 1998 due to the El Niño, but temperatures never recovered to pre-niño values during/after the 3+ year Niña that followed. Same thing after the 1973/74 -1975/76 Niña. Keep in mind the reason the atmosphere cools during La Niña is because more heat is being absorbed into the oceans (largely stored in the IPWP and off-equator regions). Vice versa for warming during El Niño (heat built up/stored in the IPWP is released into the atmosphere, thus warming global temps). This is why La Niña dominated before/during the MWP (and even more-so during the Holocene thermal maximum), and why the abrupt switch to the most Niño-dominant centennial base state in 11,000+ years in the 1300s-1500s culminated in the LIA. The immediate effect of El Niño is to warm the atmosphere, yes. But given enough time (ie: decades to centuries of El Niño dominance) the system will begin to cool as the tropical oceans gradually lose heat.
  4. FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination. Recent examples: 1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña. 1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06). 1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era). I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.
  5. Man that sun is getting STRONG. Thought it was in the upper 50s when I was outside earlier but it’s still in the 40s at 3PM! Weird to have winter like high temps when all surfaces are so freaking warm to the touch. Walked thru the grass barefoot and it was downright toasty. And was actually hot getting into the car earlier. Gonna enjoy the cool air while I still can. It’s on borrowed time.
  6. UHI is a big contributor to earlier bloom times in DC, though. Some of the springs in the 1920s/30s would have produced earlier peak bloom dates had they occurred today. The cherry blossoms in our neighborhood are still ~ 2 weeks from peak bloom. The cherry blossom in our yard didn’t have any blooms until a couple days ago. Downtown DC is much farther along, despite being only 9 miles away. Which is what happens when overnight lows are 10+ degrees warmer night after night.
  7. I’m not predicting such an outcome, but it’s a distinct possibility. Though keep in mind I’m not an unbiased observer..I have a vested interest in a weaker ENSO outcome. It’s also very possible we end up with a strong single year niña like 1988/89. The transition from -QBO to +QBO this summer/fall (westerly shear descending to/through 30mb) will favor a cleaner La Niña transition, just as the descending -QBO last year helped the El Niño regime establish itself early and with ease.
  8. Yes, Beatrix-Farrand Forsythia, and has been blooming since February. It’s 40 years old and grows back more vigorously each time we cut it back. Amazingly hardy plant. Also, for whatever reason in 2020 it started a second bloom cycle in Nov/Dec. Has done so each year since. Haven’t the slightest clue as to why, but it adds some flavor to the otherwise dead/dying landscape at that time of year.
  9. Have you heard the Carolina Wren? Such an incredible number of decibels for such a small bird. CHIRPIDY-CHIRPIDY-CHIRPIDY-CHERPIDY-CHIRP!
  10. Some are, depends how quick the transition is and the in-situ state as well (different modes of niño decay affect the pattern in different ways). This year bears some resemblance to 2010 and 1973 (in different ways, of course). Does not resemble 1958, 1998, or 2016 at this point, unfortunately. Had been holding out hope we’d take that route but it simply isn’t in the cards.
  11. Yep dawn chorus has started. I swear those f**kers wake up before 6AM just to worsen my insomnia. And the trees behind the house have started to leaf out already. The ones in the picture are all oak and sycamore, which don’t usually leaf out until late April (tho will probably be a few weeks earlier this year).
  12. On the bright side, it’ll mean some solid negative departures in the west/PNW (maybe a top tier cool shot in there somewhere). And some amazing storm footage. But the downside is the elephant in the room.
  13. I added a microphone to the rooftop wx cam. The birds definitely think spring has arrived.
  14. I’m more bothered by the massive overachieving of high temps than the actual temps. Yeah it feels nice, but 6 weeks from now a similar departure would equate to low/mid 90s. I’m a big picture guy. Plus 850mb temps are almost 0°C. Could have been a solid cool departure if it weren’t for downsloping.
  15. I fear a slew of major tornado outbreaks are in store for the central states, first one in late March, then a barrage in early/mid April. One of the ugliest possible evolutions of subseasonal forcing elements seems all but assured now.
  16. Hope he’s alright. Seemed on edge over the last week.
  17. Blew past the predicted high temp again. Forecast: 64°F. Actual: 73°F. Motherf**king joke. Why can’t cold anomalies overperform like this?
  18. The 3 things you can count on most are death, taxes, and humans failing to learn from history. Hilarious reading these century old texts where we’d confidently established that we’d figured everything out, only to be laughably wrong about almost everything. But *this* time we *definitely* have it right, because we’re sooo much smarter now.. ..said each and every generation before ours. Some things never change (the climate definitely changes, though).
  19. I’d be okay with a weak niña. Much colder than a strong niño, but with similar snowfall climatology (statistically). I might beat you in snowfall for the second winter in a row.
  20. You might be joining me! I’ve known 2024 was going to be a s**t summer for awhile. Post-niño and descending +QBO is always nightmare fuel here. I’ve reached the acceptance stage on that.
  21. Still plenty of potential failure modes. I’m not denying a niña is statistically favored (it is) but it’s far from a sure thing. Models are also notoriously bad at predicting ENSO during the spring months, for a number of reasons I’m too tired to delve into right now.
  22. Damn right. It literally doesn’t exist yet, so of course I’m going to deny it. Like..duh.
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