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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Also nice to see the southern plains get some rainfall (as currently projected). They’re in the 4CH danger zone for drought this summer, so this might take the edge off a little.
  2. 12z GFS is actually a substantial improvement for Oregon. Jesse/PDX somehow ends up in a dry bubble.
  3. All models were cutting that trough off too much..again. End result is a drier (and flatter) pattern overall. Seems cool anomalies will be easier to achieve out there than rainfall. Not sure how common that is out there but my recollection is the opposite is usually true?
  4. Does feel like dry is going to be the theme this summer. Weather has just had that kind of vibe to it of late. This spring has been nothing like any of the recent ones preceding wet summers. Lots of clear, cloudless days with any precipitation coming in brief little spritzes, often with the sun shining. Heavier westerly component to the wind as well. More of a spidey sense thing than rigorous scientific analysis on my part, admittedly.
  5. FWIW it’s getting real dry out this way as well. Soil is cracking everywhere even under grass and shrubs. Last time I recall having to water in mid-May was 2012, iirc.
  6. Looks like we have 4 days of spring remaining. Then it’s onto summer for the next 4 months. Wake me up when September ends.
  7. GFS doing its drunk cutoff thing again. This time with two ULLs..because apparently one isn’t enough.
  8. FWIW, I was (mostly) right about the excessive digging of the offshore trough by the GFS, and that stray Euro run.
  9. I did clarify that post 2hrs later. Not the best wording.
  10. CPC now has higher chances of a niña next winter than neutral.
  11. WWB in the IO pushes water towards the Maritime Continent. Hence downwelling and warming in E-IO into Indo region. Warmer waters/convection in IO/Maritime Continent domain strengthens Walker Cell/trades thru WPAC, pushing the system into -ENSO/-PDO state.
  12. Have a -1.5SD cold airmass overhead here and it’s 71 degrees. Feels like we’re approaching the point of no return. Climo changing too fast to keep up.
  13. Keep that south trend going. SW US needs all the rainfall in the world. And then some.
  14. That’s why I think outlier runs like 12z should (generally) be viewed with caution. Of course it could still end up being correct.
  15. This can’t be real..right? Blowtorch everywhere except Baffin Island is disappointingly familiar.
  16. Okay. I’m not exactly sure what your point was in referencing it. Whatever, not a huge deal.
  17. So likewise, the 00z run usually looks like the 18z run, right?
  18. You say that like it’s unique to 18z/06z. It’s no more/less different irrespective of model cycle.
  19. But that’s still not true. At least no more than the 00z run looks like the 18z run.
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