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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. To those why enjoy sunny weather, maybe don’t live in the cloudiest climate in the US?
  2. I think it’s been more than just the last three. Recall the same claims going back to at least 2014.
  3. There was an equatorward shift of the thermal/baroclinicity gradient during the LIA, which had the storm track supressed during the winter but provided more moisture during the warm season. Overall it was drier annually in the LIA since the reduction in wintertime precip was larger than the increase in summertime precip. But the increase in summertime precip was substantial. And the majority of cooling in the LIA was also during the summer. Winters were cooler as well, but it was roughy 50% of the summertime cooling in magnitude. Here’s an interesting paper on this topic, by St
  4. In PNW/BC, it was cooler, with wetter summers and drier winters. Though there was interdecadal variability back then just as there is now. The larger difference was in the SW US, which was significantly cooler/wetter.
  5. The only quake I’ve experienced was the 5.8mag in 2011. The geology out here allows seismic waves to travel farther compared to out West, so we pretty much got the full brunt of it despite the epicenter being ~ 50 miles away in VA (the quake was felt all the way up into Maine). What I remember was the sound that came before the shaking. Like a roar emanating from everywhere but also nowhere. Then when the S-waves arrived it was like being in a shaker bottle. Not much side-to-side motion..mostly up and down but more analogous to a high amplitude vibration. Fortunately the only casualties w
  6. You don’t say? Though the warming, by itself, can’t explain it all. The patterns that would produce those nationally cool summers just don’t occur these days. The multidecadal/centennial Hadley Cell expansion/slowing isn’t unique to the present era, of course. The MWP mega drought proves that. What scares me is the fact it can get so much worse without any human influence. Just have to hope that, after 350+ years of general broadening HC/widening ITCZ, that this cycle is nearing an end.
  7. Another white whale is the old school coast to coast cool summer. Like 1964. I long for a summer with cool anomalies dominating the CONUS, such that I won’t have to worry about heat from the 4CH spilling east from the plains. Happened a lot in the 19th century. Locally we have had only 2 cooler than average summers in 30+ years. The Atlantic Hadley Cell has broadened even more than the Pacific cell since the 1970s. The Bermuda high has become so massive that the *trade winds* have made it up here on a few occasions over the last decade.
  8. I would be (reasonably) confident in a cool summer if it weren’t for the risk of a last minute heatwave in August to screw it up. Methods I’m using are strictly statistical given range involved but that seems to be a theme. But again..very preliminary. Don’t hold me to this yet.
  9. It’s weird, I don’t derive amusement from it like I used to. Guess I’m getting old and boring.
  10. Probably. Statistical analogs have a distinct cool signal there thru July, but it vanishes in August and September actually leans warm. But yeah overall not a huge departure. And with UHI/etc it wouldn’t surprise me if PDX/SEA end up right at average. Too early for dynamical analogs (at least for me) but once we get into May the confidence there increases substantially.
  11. Those were volcanic summers with little if any Niña component, so I’d agree. I certainly wouldn’t bet against a “cool” summer, but if is cool, it likely won’t follow the 1983/1993 route. Probably more like 2011 or maybe 2008.
  12. Well u said for the rest of winter. And bet against the stratwarm/blocking, which still baffles me.
  13. “2 weeks of ridging followed by more zonal flow”. Remember that?
  14. Lol. I think ridging is by far the least likely outcome with this pattern evolution. I could see it morphing into more of a cool/dry regime with N/NW flow and supressed shortwaves, but for western ridging you’d want divergence centered over the Pacific. And that’s not happening. Really is your classic, canonical La Niña system going forward.
  15. It might happen this time. Check out the subsidence over the dateline in the LR..that just screams -PNA at this time of year.
  16. Hard to argue the parallel GFS isn’t on an island of its own with the LR pattern evolution.
  17. In fact the legacy GFS looks closer to the EPS than the parallel.
  18. Those don’t look anything alike. The pattern over NPAC/W-Canada is totally different on the EPS.
  19. Though hard to have much confidence until the Asian summer monsoon gets going. The nature of the seasonal transition can be quite revealing. The stronger the EASM signal is under -ENSO, the more likely a cool summer is.
  20. Yeah looks like a late bloomer. Wouldn’t surprise me if the warmest weather occurs towards the end of August or September.
  21. June -2 July -2 August 0 September +2 October -1 November +2
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