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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. The amount of wildfire smoke injected into the stratosphere this summer was impressive, right on par with 2017/18. Which also happens to be a second year niña/-QBO following a large 4CH/western ridge summer. Hard to argue against 2017/18 as an analog. On paper it’s probably the closest match.
  2. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s are the theme for the foreseeable future. Absolutely magnificent weather. This is easily the most beautiful time of year around here. Cool, crisp (and often foggy) mornings, orangey afternoon sun with lengthening shadows, declining humidity, and the smell of falling leaves permeating the air. Also lasts much longer than the “goldilocks period” in spring, which is inconsistent if not nonexistent in some years.
  3. I think the last week of October or the first week of November will deliver some storminess. Climo seems to favor that period, especially in the 21st century.
  4. Nah chris is a teddy bear. A big, round, soft teddy bear.
  5. I knew you were full of shît. Or you’re loaded. Or both.
  6. I’ll venmo you $1000 if you find a post of mine bîtching about a broken camera.
  7. The rooftop sensor is the only one reporting to WU unfortunately. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2021-09-25/2021-09-25/daily But even this one dropped below 50 yesterday AM. And prob will tonight as well. Nocturnal inversion just takes some time to deepen after sunset.
  8. Onto more interesting topics. Lowest PDO since 2012 at this time of year.
  9. To be fair it’s not Chris’s fault. Very few of us are playing with a full deck to begin with, and he’s no exception.
  10. Stations don’t measure temperature 15 miles away. Why would a sea level station, miles away, in an urban area, 10 feet from the tidal Potomac, better-reflect temps here than the multiple high quality sensors on-site? Cringe.
  11. What is a “major station”? Heck, why I’m even up debating this at 2AM is beyond me. 2 of my 3 sensors were < 52°F. As was ALB DOT station. That’s enough confirmation for me.
  12. Weak front arrived ~ 1130pm and mixed out the nocturnal inversion. Up into the 60s now. Typical stuff.
  13. I’ve become so acclimated to 24/7 heat that I was shivering my arse off this evening at 50°F. Literally teeth chattering, body trembling, chilled-to-the-bone shivering. What the actual phuck?
  14. One problem with straight statistical analog methods is that 2nd/3rd year -ENSO/-QBO lacks any semblance of consistency or predictability, at least on the surface. The documented cases are all over the place. (* = borderline timing of QBO). 2nd/3rd year -ENSO/-QBO: 1956/57, *1967/68, 1974/75, 1984/85, *1996/97, 2000/01, *2011/12, *2012/13, 2017/18. Useless on its face. The answers to this puzzle lie outside the ENSO/low-freq spectra. The only consistency is the *2nd year* events are heavily clustered during solar minimum or just afterwards on the upswing. But that makes sense anyway given the lagged IPWP response. Which by itself offers little if any seasonal/subseasonal scale predictability. I think we might have some idea early on which direction the system wants to go if we’re going to trust seasonal models (they’re almost universal in the projection of early season wave driving). If that fails to materialize, then..
  15. Maybe weird predicts weird? NWS-issued severe warnings relative to average. Easily the craziest large scale aberration from climatology on record in this dataset. Can clearly see the active SW US monsoon. Tornado alley/central conus was completely shut down this season, with activity displaced into the NE and Great Lakes . Will never forget the 2021 storm season. Might not experience another one like it for decades.
  16. I’d lean warm/wet too, but seasonal guidance is as bullish as ever on an early season SSW and NPAC blocking. And there is some precedent for that with the combination of eQBO and low solar if the La Niña stays weaker. In the end it probably comes down to the timing of sub-seasonal scale forcings, rendering this year inherently unpredictable at-range (more so than usual). High risk of a crap pattern this year..1974/75 and 2007/08 (and to an extent 2005/06, though it tried to turn around in Feb) are examples of poor synchronization that torpedoed the NPAC/NPO backcycle, culminating in mild zonal flow.
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