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Phil

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Phil last won the day on May 24

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  1. Yeah I think people underestimate how awful the 1988 pattern was. Repeating that would be a disaster.
  2. That’s meaningless in the context of seasonal analogs, though. No predictive value at such specific time intervals.
  3. Mexico - Gulf Coast death ridge preparing to make its move. It will take no prisoners.
  4. It was traumatizing for me too. Because even though it was a (relatively) small duration subseasonal error, it will go down in infamy and will never be forgotten. Lmao.
  5. There was a WPAC MJO transit that produced few nasty +TNH cycles, but it was a subseasonal as opposed to a seasonal signal. The summer forecasts I make are seasonal scale. Winter is where I have more interest in unifying the seasonal and subseasonal elements since there is cleaner tropical/extratropical communication which becomes bidirectional thanks to the PV/mass circulation affecting the tropics/MJO in addition to the inverse.
  6. I never said niños were better than niñas for PNW winters. Didn’t even bring up niñas or draw any comparison. Where did you get that idea from?
  7. Irritating when I give a general idea many months out but inevitably make some mistakes in smaller details or subseasonal timing and get roasted for it. Meteorologists deal with that kind of criticism all the time so perhaps I should grow thicker skin just ignore it. But it’s still annoying.
  8. I said it wouldn’t *shock* me if Jul or Aug pulled off a negative departure, but I didn’t *predict* it. In fact I predicted a positive departure every month from May to October. My general idea was cooler SW/smaller 4CH, very warm in Canada, and the warmest PNW anomalies in May/June, and late-Aug/Sep/Oct, with midsummer possible running closer to normal. Make sense?
  9. I didn’t predict that. What are you talking about?
  10. Here’s what I said going into summer 2022 (see screenshots below). I knew the 4CH would be beastly again, but I didn’t fully understand the different types of 4CH modes & their respective influence(s) on the PNW. I did a lot of reading about the 4CH in the literature during the dud winter of 2022/23 since there was nothing better to do. I think (hope?) I have a better grasp on it now, but we’ll see.
  11. This is what I said going into spring/summer 2023. Not sure how I could’ve done any better.
  12. Correct. Which is what I’d predicted last year, btw. 2023 warm PNW summer occurred via different conduits vs 2021/22.
  13. Could be the satanic torch simply expands east as opposed to shifting east. No doubt this summer will be worse out here than 2021/22/23, but I’m not sure it’ll be better in the West. It’s possible PNW escapes the worst, but the SW/4-corners region will almost certainly be cooked to death again. Thanks, La Niña.
  14. And I’m not even factoring climate change/etc into it. The state of tropical forcing/internal variability itself favors heat, heat, and more heat this summer (and probably autumn too). Literally nothing worse than niña onset, downwelling +QBO (westerly shear stress) -PMM/+AMM, +IOD/+DMI, going into solar max. It’s going to be ugly everywhere except Alaska. But I’m sure this post will be forgotten when I inevitably make another mistake on the subseasonal level and take a beating for it. Haha.
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