Phil

If the weather channel app is correct it’ll be snowing smoke here.

I have faith this could bump north at the last second, common for models to overpower arctic highs and suppress moisture too much, even D3-D4. The GFS is especially notorious for this.

Those totals could happen but the ingredients need to come together at the proper time. My main concern (for my area) is a whiff to the south if the arctic high is too overpowering.

2009/10 was much more impressive than that down here. That famous 12 day stretch from 1/29 to 2/10 had 4 separate storms. 1/29: 8” of powder fell with temps in the teens. 2/3: 7” of wet chowder fell in a couple of hrs w/ temps in low/mid 30s. 2/5-2/6: 32” of wet snow with 35-40mph winds, took out a lot of weak limbs and trees. Transformer explosions lit up the night and we ended up losing power at 3AM. 2/9-10: Another 21”, the most ferocious blizzard I’ve ever experienced. Initial WAA dropped 4-5” overnight into the AM, then the imbedded front/ULL blasted through on 50-60mph gusts and 1-3”/hr rates. Snow was blowing everywhere, near zero visibility much of the time. My favorite storm of all time.

The mechanisms are indirect/state dependent and more tied to periods of geomagnetic activity than solar min/max itself. It really matters what the in-situ climate state is (QBO/MQI, etc) and the orientation of the solar polar fields as well, which reverses each solar cycle. When the polar fields are out of alignment with Earth’s (as with the prior SC24) statistically fewer CMEs have favorable polarity for geomagnetic storming (same w/ the baseline solar wind). The polar fields associated with the new SC25 are back in alignment with Earth’s (flipped in late 2024) so the upper atmosphere is generally more responsive as photochemical changes may occur more quickly and significantly.

There are actually some low frequency states where solar max could theoretically improve mid-latitude/NPAC pattern tendencies. But this winter ain’t one of then, nor was last winter.

More that it’s flawed logic to say SSWEs = cold east. The exact opposite has been true for the last decade+, with strong vortex regimes favoring the east and weak vortex regimes favoring the west. Which in a way makes sense, the west/PNW needs highly meridional flow to advect arctic air given the Pacific being is immediately upstream, where-as a more progressive/zonal pattern will immediately advect in mild Pacific air. Meanwhile the east can still access that continental arctic air in more progressive flow regimes due to the fact the upstream source is continental (and the Rockies obstructing the Pacific helps too). Oversimplified of course but the logic flows.

The eastern forums are even more loaded with weenies and wishcasters than this forum, I’d pick this one any day of the week.

It’s sunny in North Bend in January?!

Well both this winter and last winter lacked SSWEs and both appear to favor the east. Some research indicates a strong vortex tends to augment the +TNH like pattern over North America in the modern climate era.

Where did this whole low resolution thing originate from?

My deepest and most sincere condolences. Life is too short, there’s never enough time.

Weren’t you considering coastal Maine at one point?

Beech mountain NC is actually legit. They average like 80”/winter and have never been above 87°F in the summer.

Finally got 30mins of light, non-accumulating snow this evening. I’ll take it at this point.