Phil

Update!

Yeah, the niño transition failed that summer. Tried hard but didn’t quite get over the hump.

Well, a “21st century version” of the 1957 pattern is theoretically possible if the stout -NPMM and warm EPAC/+SPMM continues unabated. But it’s been decades since we’ve seen anything like that during a developing niño, so yeah, I’m always skeptical we will return to that until I see it happen. The closest we came was 2012, actually. Lots of false alarms since the mid 1970s climate shift.

Those marine layer days you say have disappeared, may yet reappear this warm season.So, only half over? If you’re looking for a 19th century summer you’re probably screwed, though.

Correct. It could even end up solidly above average, but if so it’ll probably resemble the 2019 or 1997 pattern. Relatively moist and a “dim” but persistent warm lean. Rather than massive heatwaves and fires everywhere. Or it could end up resembling 1957 if this cold phase/PMM dipole type circulation continues, or if the niño transition fails then a cooler outcome is suddenly very possible.

Haha, I actually didn’t. Just that the lack of a mega-4CH should sever the conduit responsible for the insane western heat over the last 2 summers. Easy to get a warm PNW summer with a weak 4CH. Biggest difference from previous summers will be over the SW/Intermountain West, where it’ll be like night and day (if I’m right). But I don’t anticipate those monster heatwaves will happen this year, unless it happens in May or maybe at the tail end of summer. And if so, up north in BC/Alaska and the Yukon would be where the warmest anomalies would center.

Probably followed by heat miser disappointment during the meat of summer. I suspect everyone is gonna squirm at some point.

I anticipate a transition to a more Tim-friendly pattern for the second half of April, which should last well into May. In fact I bet there’ll be some icepuśśy panic come mid-May when it’s still a dry/somewhat warm pattern after 4+ weeks. Reasons for this come down to seasonal/intraseasonal overlap, not really ENSO related at all. But the weak/suppressed 4CH should become increasingly apparent as we move deeper into the warm season. Much different pattern during the warm season across the entire western US.

But the amplitude of warm 850mb anomalies is reduced and latitudinally constrained, which was my point at the time.

Nothing like last week, though. This is a flicker by comparison.

Sorry bruh.

Congrats!

Fleeing the rain?

Meh, I’m skeptical of it, though it did follow a 4 year -ENSO regime, similar to the one we’re emerging from now.

2002