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Phil last won the day on September 26

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  1. EPS weeklies still pushing back any transition to a wetter pattern. In reality it could be the jet doesn’t break through at all, and instead the ridge retrogrades offshore. EPS for 10/24: Current run vs previous run.
  2. Been loving this autumn so far. Coolest start in many years. It was 48.4°F at 345pm today. By far the coolest afternoon temperature I’ve ever recorded this early in the season. By contrast, in 2019 it was 98°F here on Oct 2nd. Huge difference this year so far.
  3. EPS still adding AAM through the next 2 weeks. If/when high AAM begins decreasing again is when I’d watch for a retrogression. A faster reversal/-dAAMt would be more likely to pull it off.
  4. This pattern is killing the cold air source for 80% of the CONUS. Need to either retrograde the western ridge into the GOA, or build a ridge into NE-Canada/Greenland. I think the former is more likely, but am hoping for the latter.
  5. It’s 48.4°F here at 345pm on 10/3. That would be pretty typical in January. By far the coldest afternoon temp I’ve ever recorded this yearly in the season. For contrast, in 2019 it was 98°F here on 10/2.
  6. This was the September 1st run of the CANSIPS. Good grief.
  7. The August 1st run of the CANSIPS was also projecting a very wet August and September in the PNW. Huge yikes.
  8. It was forecasting a cool/wet September in the PNW in late August, so…yeah maybe.
  9. Problem with these seasonal models is they generally reflect low pass coupling and cannot see intraseasonal events which perturb that. So they’ll end up with the canonical ENSO response 90% of the time. Don’t think they will prove very useful more than 2 months in advance. At best. Any kind of SSW/significant MJO renders the solutions useless. Even just a sharp dAAMt/wavebreak can change the picture.
  10. The Euro is definitely in the retrogression camp. Easy to see where that pattern would go, verbatim.
  11. We’ve been getting North Bend weather since the evening of 9/29. Going on 5 days without seeing the sun and my SAD has turned on. I don’t know how Tim does it. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDCA&hours=72
  12. I don’t care about the spider though. The web is what gets me. It’s a texture thing. Eww.
  13. Eww. I have an irrational phobia of spiderwebs. I freak the eff out when I walk into one.
  14. And before the big SSW in late Jan 1989, the PV had been raging strong for months. That winter could have been MUCH colder overall if the vortex were weaker.
  15. I think ridge retrogression and cool/dry is more likely. Might not happen until late in the month, though.
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