Phil

The correlation can break in March for a myriad of reasons, so that is a distinct possibility in 2027. However, seasonal elements of forcings render February an entirely different animal when it comes to the relationship between ENSO amplitude and the extratropical wave form response. Deviations from the mean in February (such as 2019) are almost exclusive to weaker El Niño events.

High amplitude El Niños are actually remarkably predictable from a seasonal/subseasonal weather/climo standpoint. The mechanisms/teleconnective bridges are straightforward, there is not some threshold crossing that would suddenly make a super El Niño winter behave like a super La Niña winter in terms of the middle latitude wave form response. The STJ will be continuously forced to be dominant over the northern jet, so that NW flow/NPAC high pattern you’re envisioning isn’t something that will come to fruition. Much more of the Pineapple Express variety stuff, with more tendency for canonical +PNA/Aleutian Low later in the winter. The only theoretical possibility for a perturbation of that seasonal progression would be a full column SPV split/SSWE early on (late Nov or Dec), but that is very difficult to do in a super Niño/+QBO base state w/ easterly shear in its embryonic stages, especially w/ the SPV still in a developing state.

Congrats CA.

What a behemoth.

Hi

So…climo? At least OFA puts out an actual departure map. This is a joke.

Progressively warmer.

Worst is some combination of both. PM2.5 at 600 and dews at/above 75°F is the most miserable thing I’ve ever experienced (except for renal colic..still in the hospital BTW ).

Bruh I just passed out and fell down in the bathroom from the pain trying to piss. Went down like a senior citizen crashing out of life, knocked the blood-filled piss bucket down in the process, so now the entire bathroom looks a murder scene. Not sure which is bruised more, my ego or my pelvis.

Now imagine PM2.5 of 400+ and dews in the mid/upper 70s simultaneously. You ain’t never experienced gross until you’ve experienced that. It adheres right to your skin via sweating, gets into your pores, hair, clothes, etc. When you step in the shower the water running off your body is grey-brown as a result. Literally not exaggerating at all, we just went through this last month. And some of the twisted people on here tried to tell me that is “interesting” and “fun”.

You’re lucky you have the Pacific Ocean sitting immediately upstream to keep your air clean most of the time. All of us living downstream from you don’t have that luxury, the haze has become a permanent fixture over the last decade or so (especially since 2020). Some years are worse than others, yes, and 80% of the time it stays aloft/above the mixing layer, but it’s getting progressively worse. And something needs to be done.

I still don’t understand what makes fire and smoke interesting to track. It’s not even weather IMO, just pollution. I don’t think I’ve seen a truly “clear” sky since June. Even when surface air quality has been good, the sky has still been milky white (and orange at sunrise/sunset) for 6+ weeks.

Lucky son a b*tch.

Sarcasm, I assume?

How large were yours?