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Phil last won the day on January 22
Phil had the most liked content!
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That afternoon deform band: IMG_0518.mov
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It was lit. Wish I could relive it. Light snow began around 2pm in association w/ WAA/isentropic upglide, gradually intensified to moderate snow by sundown as the first frontogenic bands rotated in. No wind yet at this point, just completely dead calm and silent. Then at ~ 10pm, frontogenic forcing and moisture advection went nuclear all of a sudden. In the blink of an eye it started puking snow at ~ 2”+/hr, along with frequent thunder/lightning and the first gusts of wind from the E/NE. The entire character of the storm changed in an instant. This went on until ~ 5AM, then we temporarily lulled back to light snow ahead of the ULL/deform pivot. Still a light NE wind at that point. Then just after lunchtime, the deformation band pivoted overhead, and the true blizzard conditions began, with the highest rates and strongest winds of the storm. As winds quickly veered to the N/NW, the temperature dropped from 29°F to 21°F and snowfall rates increased to 3”+/hr. Lots of blowing/drifting snow. No thunder/lightning this time, but the conditions on the ground were more extreme than overnight. Ripped like crazy until 6-7pm, until the deform band pivoted off to the E/NE, at which point we fell back to light snow for the next 3 hours. Finally stopped snowing ~ 10PM. NWS employee that lived a few miles away reported 37” as the grand total. My measurements were all over the place because of drifting, but the average was a bit over 34”. Though this doesn’t account for compaction, so maybe it would’ve been a little higher if I’d followed official measurement procedures. All in all, an amazing storm. My 3rd favorite storm of all time, in fact (behind the 2/10/10 mega-blizzard and 2/6/10 snowmageddon that had occurred just days prior).
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This climate isn’t good for preserving snow cover. The 2016 blizzard dumped 34” of snow in 24hrs, but it was all gone inside 10 days. Imagine, all this snow vanishing in 8-9 days. So sad.
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This winter was actually solid here. NYC/New England got screwed, but I don’t care about them. Had 2 weeks of unbroken snowcover for the first time since 2015. Had nearly a foot on the ground at one point. And a full week of subfreezing temps kept it from melting during that timeframe. Also had accumulating snow every month this winter. Last time that happened was 2019. So all in all, I’m content.
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lol, correct except for the timescale. The warming following a 3+ year niña is evident inside 5 years following the event. But if a more +ENSO tendency follows, it becomes statistically null and void. Longer term warming/cooling via ENSO variability is indeed largely on the centennial scale due to the high degree of multidecadal variability in ENSO behavior. Also, ENSO is just one of several modes of internal variability in ocean/atmosphere circulation/heat transports (all of which affect global climate significantly). We follow ENSO because it’s short term/noticeable, and high amplitude. However, there are other, longer term modes of internal variability (mostly involving the IPWP/seasonality and axisymmetric variability in the z-circulations) that actually have more profound effects on global climate than ENSO does. But they’re understudied and overlooked because they operate on such long timescales that we don’t necessarily realize they exist.
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Your temp will suffer the same fate, my brother. The next intradecadal IPWP extension (and reversal of Hadley-Walker intensity ratio) will begin any year now. When it does, the seasonal tendencies of the last decade will invert, with western Canada/PNW blowtorching focused in the winter/spring months, and AL/+PNA/+TNH becoming the low frequency mean-state. I don’t control any of this. Just giving a heads up.
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I’m talking about baseline global temps (after removing the ENSO component). Yes there was a prolific spike in 1998 due to the El Niño, but temperatures never recovered to pre-niño values during/after the 3+ year Niña that followed. Same thing after the 1973/74 -1975/76 Niña. Keep in mind the reason the atmosphere cools during La Niña is because more heat is being absorbed into the oceans (largely stored in the IPWP and off-equator regions). Vice versa for warming during El Niño (heat built up/stored in the IPWP is released into the atmosphere, thus warming global temps). This is why La Niña dominated before/during the MWP (and even more-so during the Holocene thermal maximum), and why the abrupt switch to the most Niño-dominant centennial base state in 11,000+ years in the 1300s-1500s culminated in the LIA. The immediate effect of El Niño is to warm the atmosphere, yes. But given enough time (ie: decades to centuries of El Niño dominance) the system will begin to cool as the tropical oceans gradually lose heat.
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FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination. Recent examples: 1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña. 1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06). 1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era). I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.
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Man that sun is getting STRONG. Thought it was in the upper 50s when I was outside earlier but it’s still in the 40s at 3PM! Weird to have winter like high temps when all surfaces are so freaking warm to the touch. Walked thru the grass barefoot and it was downright toasty. And was actually hot getting into the car earlier. Gonna enjoy the cool air while I still can. It’s on borrowed time.
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UHI is a big contributor to earlier bloom times in DC, though. Some of the springs in the 1920s/30s would have produced earlier peak bloom dates had they occurred today. The cherry blossoms in our neighborhood are still ~ 2 weeks from peak bloom. The cherry blossom in our yard didn’t have any blooms until a couple days ago. Downtown DC is much farther along, despite being only 9 miles away. Which is what happens when overnight lows are 10+ degrees warmer night after night.
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I’m not predicting such an outcome, but it’s a distinct possibility. Though keep in mind I’m not an unbiased observer..I have a vested interest in a weaker ENSO outcome. It’s also very possible we end up with a strong single year niña like 1988/89. The transition from -QBO to +QBO this summer/fall (westerly shear descending to/through 30mb) will favor a cleaner La Niña transition, just as the descending -QBO last year helped the El Niño regime establish itself early and with ease.
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Yes, Beatrix-Farrand Forsythia, and has been blooming since February. It’s 40 years old and grows back more vigorously each time we cut it back. Amazingly hardy plant. Also, for whatever reason in 2020 it started a second bloom cycle in Nov/Dec. Has done so each year since. Haven’t the slightest clue as to why, but it adds some flavor to the otherwise dead/dying landscape at that time of year.
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Have you heard the Carolina Wren? Such an incredible number of decibels for such a small bird. CHIRPIDY-CHIRPIDY-CHIRPIDY-CHERPIDY-CHIRP!