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Phil last won the day on September 6

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  1. Ripping real good now. Lots of deadwooding (typical of the 1st cool season wind event). Temp now dropping into the 50s under some clouds/CAA, after a midday high of 64.
  2. Wind starting to roar. Seeing some 40+mph gusts at the noon hour. Pretty epic leaf blizzard ongoing.
  3. I think the cards have yet to be stacked, minus the first few. Much of the midwinter outcome may hinge on what happens in late Nov/early Dec, and there are probably unpredictable/unstable equilibria involved there. As for ENSO, similar deal. What happens midwinter is key there. But I’d hedge towards neutral/weak ENSO for 2022/23 at the moment.
  4. If you’re looking for arctic cold mid winter, it might actually be preferable to have +WPO (and/or +PNA) dominate Nov/Dec, since that pattern opens conduits for +WAFz and a subsequent W1 response by the SPV. Given the -QBO, we’ll have a more favorable deposition of momentum (vs +QBO) should the SPV take a body blow. There *are* other conduits to blocking and/or SSW that don’t require an unfavorable pattern for the west, but that is the most efficient one. We saw it in Nov/Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Jan 2018, and Jan 2021. In the latter three cases it occurred so late in the winter the benefits didn’t show up until February. In 2016 it was a tad early and weaker (no actual SSW) but that was a Niña/+QBO which can amplify the Aleutian/GOA High very easily. Those Niña/+QBO years (thru 30-50mb) almost always perform in the PNW, regardless of strat dynamics..1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17, 2020/21 were all Niña/+QBO.
  5. If only this STJ regime were happening in Jan/Feb. Would be a ton of snow here. But alas. I’m sure come winter we’ll be back to Baffin vortex and northern stream dominance.
  6. FWIW the Euro just buttfücked the GFS w/ the nor’easter here. The GFS was nowhere close even a few days out.
  7. Storm total 2.16”. Got most of our October average in 5hrs. Wind advisory for 50mph gusts this afternoon. First wind event of the cold season + saturated soils should drop some weak trees and dead wood.
  8. 1.81” of rain in the last 3.5hrs. Moderate to heavy rain continues.
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