Phil

About average. FWIW, the state of the PV is more critical for the PNW in -QBO years. With mature +QBO/niña this winter, it’s possible the NPAC could amplify sufficiently without stratospheric help, although it never hurts.

Link: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

That is true. The wave break was so massive there was almost zero lag time between the SSW and tropospheric amplification. SSW initiated only 5 days before the arctic airmass was dislodged into western Canada. This is actually the most prolific SSW in the dataset. However, note how the vortex started off strong in autumn 1988, which may not be the case this year.

The LIA had some amazing weather patterns that likely exceeded anything observed during the 19th century. In fact, by the 1810s the NPAC storm track had already shifted substantially northward from its (apparent) latitude in the 1600s, indicative of broadening NPAC Hadley Cell in response to heating. Easy to lose perspective on how substantial the climate change has been over the last 400yrs. The current climate regime is already analogous to the peak of the medieval warm period, and we’re still warming.

Haha. In jest, my friend.

At least when it does get cold there, precip is seldom an issue thanks to the largest ocean in the world sitting immediately upstream.

I don’t like that evolution at all, tbh. Want to see the vortex wrap up quickly in Oct/Nov to more quickly establish cold season wave dynamics/forcings. Though admittedly there’s a fine line there, as too much too soon can compromise ozone/BDC and risk a runaway super PV/+NAM.

Yeah your seasonal transition into winter is much faster than ours. In fact Seattle’s average temperature is colder than ours until mid/late December.

Yeah this climate has taken a death spiral since 2016. Probably will rebound somewhat, but we’re no worse off than you guys in the PNW now.

This my only safe space to vent about evil weather. And you have to admit, given the atrocity of this summer, I was pretty well-restrained. Right?

Noooooooooo. October snow is the #1 winter curse out here.

Was going to reply with the puke emoji, but alas

I agree. Also 3+ year niñas tend to precede an eastward extension of the IPWP and subsequent decrease in niña frequency (and a decrease in overall ENSO amplitude). Usually this occurs at or just after solar maximum. Should be any year now.

Impressive NE-Canada ridge signal on the D15 EPS.

Yeah upwelling kelvin wave crossing the west pacific now. Maturing +QBO will also aid the developing niña via increased near-equator static stability, which augments off-equator convection and walker/hadley intensity ratio. I’m not sold on another multiyear niña, though. Would be a substantial break from 70+ years of precedent. But I suppose anything is possible.