TT-SEA

Got lucky tonight!

Mariners trying hard to blow another game here.

Its not shadowing... that happens tomorrow in Seattle with strong westerly flow. Today its related to offshore flow ahead of incoming system which is the opposite. This is very common with systems during the winter too. Initially takes time to overcome offshore flow ahead of system.

I would be surprised if tomorrow was that cold in your area... with a c-zone up around Everett and sunshine and brisk SW wind for you in the afternoon.

Last June this happened around the solstice... with heavy rain and low snow levels. Nice to get it out of the way a little earlier this year.

12Z EPS focuses the troughing farther east in the long range. 12Z ECMWF AIFS ensemble shows the same focus to the east but is a little more troughy out here in the long range... could end up being a pretty benign and pleasant pattern.

Sounds good... I didn't really care either way.

I reported what the ECMWF showed. I don't make forecasts. Could also end up being dry and close to normal... doesn't always have to be massive ridge or never-ending perma-troughing.

That is odd considering its only reached 100 a total of 6 times at SEA... 3 being in the same week. This weekend looks like absolute summer perfection. We have some wedding related activities over the weekend but we have already got a big group put together for boating next Monday when we are all skipping out on work at noon.

Plenty summery after tomorrow on the ECMWF.

New 12Z ECMWF looks frigid around the solstice.

The 06Z ECMWF showed a bit less for Seattle proper but still around 1.5 inches. No doubt we have another 2+ inch dousing coming in my area.

Top one goes out much further... but for the days shown on the bottom its only 3 degrees different at the most. Those forecasts looks quite similar.

00Z ECMWF doesn't show the crash later next week either... just stays warm through the entire week.

Then the ECMWF shows it starts clearing up Wednesday is sunny through early next week... perfect weekend ahead after a thorough soaking.

What a soaker... glad to see the precip so spread out this time around. Getting old being inundated with rain here while other places get nothing. If its going to rain then make it count.

We can't really go into drought in the summer because our average rainfall in the summer is negligible. Its always going to dry out... its not abnormal. Drought develops over a longer time scale during the time of year when our precip average is much higher.

Ehhhh... cold and wet is not ideal but we have had enough warm days mixed in.

Copius May and June rain seems to make the garden happy. Everything is growing exponentially. Have not had to water either... which has allowed me to focus on establishing the new grass.

Seems pretty likely for the EPSL and Cascade foothills.

Right back into deep troughing by the middle of next week... definitely not playing out like June 2015.

No heat wave per the ECMWF... might get close to 90 next Tuesday but then crashes quickly afterwards. Good news is that its basically sunny from Wednesday afternoon through the early next week with minimal low clouds.

Hmmm... maybe this is not updated but I see record highs of 86, 88, and 88 for Sunday - Tuesday at SEA.

Only a few sunbreaks here yesterday... most of the day was dark and wet and cold. Complete opposite today though. Still too cool for my liking in the summer but better days are ahead.

Looks like I can't use the weather as an excuse to avoid yard work today.