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Everything posted by TT-SEA

  1. The 12Z GEFS shows better separation between troughs next weekend compared to the GFS and compared to previous runs of the GEFS. The GEFS solution might result in nicer weather for Hawkstwelve's camping trip. 12Z GFS on top and 12Z GEFS on the bottom for next Saturday...
  2. Is that near Leavenworth? Unfortunately the 12Z GFS is not nearly as favorable for next weekend.
  3. The 12Z GFS still leaves enough energy on the western side of that trough earlier in the week during the split to carve out a deep trough over the west by Thursday. Totally different than the ICON which I assume is completely wrong.
  4. Yeah...not good for your trip but this would be pretty nice for Oregon.
  5. If I had my way... the entire region would get 2-3 inches of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday and then next weekend would be sunny and warm again. Probably won't get either.
  6. And interestingly the 12Z GFS is kind of doing the same thing. Top image is 12Z GFS yesterday for Tuesday afternoon... and bottom image is the new 12Z GFS. Pretty big change for being within 5 days.
  7. FWIW... the ICON has been trending much farther north with the trough and the 12Z run is even farther north and faster. Its so different than other models but the fact that its still trending that way and we are only 2 or 3 days out now makes me think it might be onto something. It does not show the main trough digging into CA but rather moving right through BC and WA and heading east. Its an interesting scenario... because it means more rain for WA and a much quicker return to ridging as well.
  8. Here is the 00Z EPS loop... if we can't get significant rain from that deep trough this week then it seems unlikely that the pattern after that would deliver much rain either.
  9. Somehow the 06Z GFS manages to find a way to be drier than normal over the next 10 days...
  10. A nice 75/50 at SEA today... looks like it made it to 76 out here.
  11. 75 and sunny with a little breeze... perfection out there. Looks like we have to make some time for Lake Sammamish this weekend. The water temperature at the buoy in the middle of the lake is up to 64 now. It will probably be 66 or 67 by Sunday... I think we are ready for swimming and tubing now.
  12. 12Z ECMWF shows .17 at SEA and .21 at PDX through day 9. But there is lots of rain all around us so it might trend better. Far eastern WA and OR and northern ID gets tons of rain on this run.
  13. Phil posted 5 days ago about a "phantom" ULL forming over CA and implied it was wrong. Below is the new 12Z ECMWF loop for the next couple days... and that "phantom" ULL is forming right now over CA as it was shown earlier in the week.
  14. Yeah... 2019 is a good example. A record dry March here but then we never had to water all summer. That is only time that has ever happened here for us. In fact each summer month in 2019 got progressively wetter and there was basically no fire season at all.
  15. Enjoying the sun on the deck right now and I have a visitor...
  16. Unfortunately... the 12Z EPS is still drier than normal for Oregon. But its definitely not totally dry and wetter than previous runs.
  17. Here is the 12Z EPS loop for the next 10 days... really nice run. Trough digs south and moves across the entire West and then lifts out rather quickly too.
  18. 12Z ECMWF goes way south with the trough next week. It stays dry through Tuesday... but this run actually shows more rain in OR than in WA through day 7.
  19. 00Z ECMWF brings the rain in on Tuesday... which is faster than the 12Z run.
  20. You said we would have an answer when the 18Z EPS comes out in 4 hours... I said you never learn much new from the 18Z run because it only goes out through 144 hours. Very simple. And still true after this little debate.
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