the_convergence_zone

Remember, the government didn’t act on the Dust Bowl until a giant cloud of dust descended on Washington DC in 1935.

The 10 year average in Seattle in summer (JJA) is +3C. I would take the over on that for the next 10 years.

You’re clearly not up to date on the latest literature.

There are so many subtleties to our regional climate which unfortunately gives fuel to the statistic cherry pickers. The warming is highly asymmetrical on a seasonal scale with summer warming being dominant and wet season warming being more subtle and generally felt more in terms of low-to-middle elevation snowpack. Then you have the Columbia river project which continues to keep irrigated areas several degrees cooler in summer than they would be if they were compared directly to pre-1950s climate. Plus all of the decadal and multi-decadal ocean current variability which Phil is constantly hammering us about. Oh—and lots of new research indicating a direct connection between the warming Pacific Ocean and western US heatwaves via latent heat release in atmospheric rivers. A new study on the connection with the 2021 heatwave just came out: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publication-notice-the-role-of-an-atmospheric-river-in-amplifying-the-june-2021-western-north-american-heat-wave/

I always remind myself that North Bend’s climo is significantly cloudier and wetter than KSEA It’s like double the rainfall and at least 50% more clouds. Only the occasional easterly winds break that trend. If I lived in the middle of a rainforest I’d probably be desperate for sun as well. And late spring in particular is when KSEA is far, far sunnier.

Most of the debates here center on whether the most recent weeks/month/year is top 1/5/10 warmest. If we get something that is near or below 1991-2020 climo it’s cause for celebration among the cold fans. In 5 years climo will reset again and we’ll have a new, higher baseline to compare with.

You definitely get the worst of the late spring onshore flow regime. I don’t see a single day that looks crappy in Seattle in the 10-day forecast. Rain looks to be timed overnight Friday and Seattle will be mostly shadowed the rest of the time.

When’s the last time we had a truly warm first half of June? 2019? And that one balanced with a cool second half.

I’ll be long gone and in the land of 70 and sunny every day. Maybe there will be a little marine layer in the morning to remind me of the PNW. For the sake of everyone here I hope it’s cold and rainy to keep the trees happy. Looking forward to adding tropical fruits and succulents to my gardening repertoire.

Nice to see some June gloom on the menu this year.

They are ahead of schedule this year, usually they don’t heat up until sometime in summer.

0.08” for the event, 0.74” for the month

It is most prominent in upper level moisture fields. It’s basically an upper level front for lack of a better term

Cells are popping near Bremerton

This one has to be on the higher end of recent storm events in terms of lightning strike count. Not every day you see a big ol' MCS over the PNW. Looks like the central Sound should squeeze out a few tenths worth of convergence drizzle tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see if any convection gets triggered on top of the marine layer as a few of the earlier HRRR runs suggested.