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BLI snowman

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Everything posted by BLI snowman

  1. Like Jim pointed out, the more unusual aspect is the already historically dry astronomical summer period. Throwing an additional near bone dry 6 weeks on top of that would put this in even more rarified air.
  2. 1929-30 got its jet stream activity out of the way kind of all at once in December. And even that featured a suppressed arctic airmass that bled through the Fraser River and delivered some nice snow from about Everett-north. 1936-37 kind of did the same thing with a brief +EPO stretch in December before that reversed dramatically in January. 1942-43 had a real onslaught of storms beginning in late October, with a top tier wet November. Definitely pretty anemic in the early fall, though.
  3. Yes, in the winter. Again we generally want to see that stronger forcing at times in the fall as an early indicator of cold air movement up north. Truly wall to wall amplified cold seasons are incredibly rare anyways. Maybe 1976-77 and a handful of others in the last century. If we haven't seen a strong jet or signs of consolidated patterns by late November then the chances are high that we will see one arise in mid-winter and quite literally have it rain on our parades. And right now Western Canada is still being flooded with mild air anyways and there's no jet to boot. Just a complete lack of any meaningful cold anomalies across the entire continent this month once again. Even AK has been quite mild again. Just have to reiterate that there just really aren't many favorable signs at the moment.
  4. Yes, in the winter. Falls that are more or less completely devoid of any jet stream activity tend to offset that in DJF. Even favorable, thoroughly blocky winters like 2013-14 and 1978-79 both had very wet Septembers in the region with strong early fall jet activity. Nothing remotely similar this year.
  5. Still trying to find a single thing to be positive about (other than the temp anomalies) for fall and beyond.....So far no luck.
  6. Tim thinks that if it rains at all during the month it equates to "winter". Those 75 degree showery days in early June sure felt like winter. Brrrrr!!!!!!!
  7. October hurricanes can be fun with the crazy phasing turns they sometimes take on once they reach the mid latitudes and become extratropical and interact with the jet stream. Obviously not a likely scenario there but there certainly are some examples of crazy stuff like that happening during the month (Typhoon Frida in 1962, Hazel in 1954, Sandy in 2012, the big UK storm in 1987, the Perfect Storm in 1991).
  8. So sorry for your guys' loss. Please don't hesitate to reach out if you need anything. We're here for you.
  9. Yeah I'm sure there will be a couple of windows for us to scrape by with something transient but I think a spread-the-wealth scenario for the region is pretty unlikely. Feeling like our best bet for a retrograde or something is gonna be with November and February (of course). I do think the majority of midwinter will either be split-centric or SW flow gunk, or maybe some combination of the two.
  10. That would feel stunningly cold compared to what we've seen recently and are likely to see moving forward. That August/September was from the waning days of a different era in our climate.
  11. Technically true but the persistence has been pretty unreal lately. And the present reality is that significant warmth will always be heavily favored anyways, in most scenarios. I am feeling a cold November (maybe late October) blocking episode. Will probably be too eastern focused and too early for it to amount to much but it will be a nice, almost surreal respite from the torching before we resume it in earnest likely in December and then of course doubly so in that following month.
  12. The lack of any coherent jet across the North Pacific is concerning, in addition to all the background warmth. When it finally comes it will probably come hard and dump on us, but historically these anemic starts to fall just mean we're probably going to be punting a significant portion of our midwinter window on SW flow gunk. And conversely, the additional emerging present tendency for every front and 500mb trough to split and cutoff to the SW is also reminiscent of our worst years. GFS shows that continues until further notice. CA may very well have a wetter winter than us finally if that's the case. Just calling it as I see it but all signs are pretty pathetically bad right now. Everyone's expectations for fall and winter should be down below the basement right now.
  13. Pretty good chance that it was at least close to legit, although thermometer placement may have slightly exaggerated that particular reading. Castle Rock was -13 and newspaper accounts seem to corroborate the -15 to -20 stuff in Cowlitz County. Very, very deep snowcover following that big storm on the 18th-19th. Some places had 20"+ on the ground by that point with clear, calm conditions and a super cold airmass. Pretty much the ideal setup for big time radiational cooling.
  14. Not a lot to look forward to at this point. Even seeing one single transient front/trough not completely wash out would be a major victory for us now.
  15. Which will make the cinderella run this October all the sweeter.
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