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February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

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#1
Geos

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:43 PM

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Start discussing Sunday night's and Tuesday's systems. 


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 6.36", 2/14

2018-2019 winter snowfall total:
27.1", 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:45 PM

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Very moist system, that's apparent. Just don't know who gets snow and who doesn't, and I'm sure a system like this could present a surprise.



#3
seattleweatherguy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:45 PM

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Let's get everyone nailed this time!

#4
runninthruda206

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:46 PM

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I’m just here to continue learning from you guys!

#5
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:48 PM

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The Dalles is getting hit pretty nicely.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#6
hawkstwelve

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:49 PM

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Some stats from Komo 4:

Seattle has gotten 10.6" this month, as of 9AM this morning. This makes February 2019 the snowiest February since 1949 when 13.1" was recorded. February 2019 is already the 2nd snowiest February on record since 1945.

#7
seattleweatherguy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:50 PM

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Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS66 KSEW 100032
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
432 PM PST Sat Feb 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter-like pattern will remain in place for the foreseeable
future as a long wave trough dominates the synoptic pattern.
Several opportunities for winter weather are likely this upcoming
week, beginning tomorrow with a quick round of accumulating snow
and another, potentially stronger, system moving through Monday
and Tuesday. Another round of winter weather will be monitored
late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A very active short term period is in store for western
Washington as another round of winter weather is expected.

A 00z synoptic scale analysis reveals a broad area of cyclonic
flow extending from northern Canada into the Northwestern US. A
closed area of low pressure can be found embedded within this
larger scale trough. This closed low was responsible for a rather
significant winter storm across western Washington
yesterday/last night. It will continue to migrate well south of
the area through the overnight hours. Radar imagery confirmed that
most of the snow activity has diminished across the CWA, with
really only a few light, weakening echoes present. Satellite
imagery and a simple glance out the office window even reveal some
peeks of sun across the area, a welcomed sight after the storm.
Sun did little in the way of warming temps this afternoon with
most locations stuck in the upper 20s to low 30s. Given snow pack
and clearing skies, temps will be cold tonight with lows in the
teens. Winds will be on their way down but conditions will still
be breezy with wind chills in the single digits for many. Whatcom
County will likely see wind chills just below zero.

Dry and cold conditions will greet us tomorrow morning. The cold
will stay with us but the dry conditions will give way to the
beginning of another long round of winter weather for western
Washington. Given the stubborn long wave pattern in place, yet
another shortwave trough will approach western Washington Sunday
afternoon. It will track just along the interior of the BC
coastline with associated sfc low across Vancouver Is into the
nearby offshore waters of the northern Washington Coast. This
system will have no problem picking up Pacific moisture as it
dives into the local area. This means the development of
precipitation and given the cold temps /high temps near freezing
tomorrow given deep snowpack/, as you might guess, the precip
will be in the form of snow. Snow will push from coastal and
northwest parts of the CWA tomorrow afternoon and move E/SE
through the evening and into the overnight hours. This will be a
fast moving system but nonetheless a decent snow producer. The
track appears slightly further north than original trends so have
included snow accumulation mainly from Mt Vernon south. Given the
quick moving nature have included a quick pickup of an additional
1 to 3 inches tomorrow for most within its path. As always,
slight error in the official track of the system may result in
accumulation further north or south. But we emphasize for most
locations to plan for a few more inches of snow by day`s end
tomorrow.

Then....as if we haven`t had enough comes a much more concerning
system quickly on the heels of Sunday system. By very early
Monday morning, a low will dive down from Aleutian Islands,
carrying with it plenty of Pacific moisture. Moisture will spread
rapidly across the area from south to north through the day on
Monday. Given continued cold air in place, it appears it would be
hard to get air to modify enough for it not fall as snow. Snow
potential looks likely Monday for much of the area though do think
areas along the coast may see rain or rain/snow mix. Late Monday
into Tuesday the system will then move east, with indication of
enhanced precip across portions of the area with the low slow to
exit the area. Could see a period of heavy snowfall Monday night
into Tuesday. Not really going into details with snow amounts at
this time but there is the potential to see similar snow amounts
to what we have seen with the previous two storms. This is
something to watch closely. Despite low confidence in amounts and
the locations that will see the highest amounts, have issued a
Winter Storm Watch for the entire area highlighting both systems
/Sunday system and Monday-Tuesday system/, since they occur so
close to one another where combined snow totals from each one
could approach Advisory or Warning levels. Time will tell. At this
point it is best to pay attention to forecast updates over the
next 24 hours as details regarding this system become more clear.

Kovacik

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The local area looks to see a brief break in precip Wednesday
before the potential for yet another system, possibly wintry,
Thursday into Friday. Moisture could then linger through the
weekend. Still no real promising sign of a pattern change in the
next 2 weeks. This is my first winter in western Washington-does
Spring exist here?

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...Area of low pressure is currently located along the
central Oregon coastline at this hour. This system will continue
pushing southward out of the area as the air mass begins to dry for
a period. Continued improvements in CIGS expected through the
afternoon with IFR cigs tonight. Winds will remain gusty mainly at
KBLI through this evening before weakening during the overnight
hours. Winds beginning to weaken elsewhere by 03z. Brief dry period
will continue through Sunday morning before next system approaches.
Expect CIGS to lower west to east on Sunday with MVFR/IFR cigs
returning to the Sound between 20z-22z. Light snow likely late
Sunday into Sunday night will generally accumulate 1-3".

KSEA...IFR CIGS will continue through the overnight hours as a brief
dry period continues. Surface wind generally 10-20 knots through 10z
before weakening to less than 10 knots by early morning. Southerly
winds will return between 14-17z ahead of the next system. Light
snow expected after 23z Sunday and will continue through the early
overnight hours. Accumulations generally 1-3". JD

&&

.MARINE...Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters due to
strong Fraser river outflow. Winds will be strongest over the
Northern Inland Waters with N/NE winds of 35 to 45 knots. Winds
will gradually ease late tonight into Sunday morning.

A pair of systems will affect the waters late Sunday through
Tuesday. Gusty Fraser river outflow winds will occur again,
although likely not as strong as the current system. Offshore flow
will continue through the end of the week. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Gale Warning until midnight PST tonight for Admiralty Inlet Area-
Bremerton and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-San Juan County-
Seattle and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-
Western Whatcom County.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Bremerton and Vicinity-Central Coast-East Puget Sound
Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and
Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North
Coast-San Juan County-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest
Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-Western Strait
of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit
Counties.

High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for San Juan County-
Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for North Coast-Western
Strait of Juan De Fuca.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening
for Olympics.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca.

PZ...Gale Warning until 2 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out
10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.

High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland
Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Gale Warning until 11 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.

&&




www.weather.gov/seattle
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#8
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:50 PM

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Let's get everyone nailed this time!

 

EURO seemed to trend in that direction!

 

The Dalles is getting hit pretty nicely.

 

Good news, perhaps the wraparound band will make things fun later on.



#9
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:52 PM

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EURO seemed to trend in that direction!


Good news, perhaps the wraparound band will make things fun later on.


It’s upslope enhanced. These exiting lows are a great setups for the east slopes of the Cascades.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#10
snow_wizard

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:57 PM

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The temp has already dropped back to 30 here.  Going to be really cold tonight.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 11.8"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 42

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 12

 

 


#11
Front Ranger

Posted 09 February 2019 - 04:59 PM

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The local area looks to see a brief break in precip Wednesday
before the potential for yet another system, possibly wintry,
Thursday into Friday. Moisture could then linger through the
weekend. Still no real promising sign of a pattern change in the
next 2 weeks. This is my first winter in western Washington-does
Spring exist here?


Kovacik

 

Tim, you must inform this guy that Spring not only exists, it takes up half the year.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#12
Front Ranger

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:02 PM

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

 

Attached File  post-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png   339.67KB   32 downloads


  • nwsnow and Frontal Snowsquall like this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#13
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:03 PM

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2/10 to 2/10 is just one day.



#14
Deweydog

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:03 PM

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

post-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png


There’s only room on this forum for one drunk uncle.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#15
Timmy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:05 PM

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

post-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png


That can’t be right

#16
Cloud

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:05 PM

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The temp has already dropped back to 30 here.  Going to be really cold tonight.


Forecast to be in the low teens for me.
I’m sorta rooting to be in the single digit though

#17
Front Ranger

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:09 PM

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That can’t be right

 

Why?

 

It looks like it may have shifted the Mon/Tue system south a bit.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#18
chinook

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:09 PM

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Snow continues in McMinnville. Sitting at 32f. Approaching 1 inch.
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#19
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:11 PM

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Snow continues in McMinnville. Sitting at 32f. Approaching 1 inch.

 

That's great, looks like the showers are intensifying a bit on radar. Washington County and Yamhill got pretty snubbed yesterday, you guys deserve the snow.



#20
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:12 PM

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Tim, you must inform this guy that Spring not only exists, it takes up half the year.

 

It usually does.   Just taking a break this month.     :)



#21
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:14 PM

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Why?

 

It looks like it may have shifted the Mon/Tue system south a bit.

 

Could it actually start trending south decently close to the event?



#22
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:18 PM

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Seattle late this afternoon...

 

sea-2-9.png


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#23
the_crossen

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:25 PM

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

 

attachicon.gifpost-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png

this doesn't account for todays snowfall from this morning does it?


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#24
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:28 PM

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Even if snow doesn't fall in PDX Monday-Tuesday, the front and dynamics at play are very interesting and I wouldn't (in my amateur weather-fan knowledge) be surprised to see some areas in the PDX metro get a few inches.



#25
iFred

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:38 PM

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Test



#26
MtScottJosh

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:40 PM

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A non-event for points Battle Ground south.  Mark just put the nail in it.  He said maybe tr-1" before changing to rain.  Lame.



#27
MtScottJosh

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:43 PM

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OMG, if Monday night's system goes south of PDX I am going to die!!!!   Let's hope this southern move becomes a trend.


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#28
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:48 PM

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OMG, if Monday night's system goes south of PDX I am going to die!!!!   Let's hope this southern move becomes a trend.

 

The EURO's southerly move is very interesting, to say the least. Anyways, at the very least we can expect a dynamic storm with crazy foothill snow.



#29
North_County

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:48 PM

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Small bit of record keeping now that the Fraser outflow gradient is decreasing. Looks like it peaked at around -26mb this morning, which is right about where the forecasts were putting it earlier in the week.

There's a 4-hour gap in the data, but by then pressure was already steadily rising at BLI.

http://wxweb.meteost...hoice=KBLI CYWL

#30
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:50 PM

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OMG, if Monday night's system goes south of PDX I am going to die!!!!   Let's hope this southern move becomes a trend.

 

 

Its not going south of Portland.    It might go north of Seattle.   Does not really matter too much though up here at least... its cold on both sides of the low.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_6.png



#31
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:51 PM

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Its not going south of Portland.    It might go north of Seattle.   Does not really matter too much though up here at least... its cold on both sides of the low.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_6.png

 

18Z EURO trended south, let us have our fun and at least hang on to a little hope, you get your snow either way /:



#32
snow_wizard

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:52 PM

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

 

attachicon.gifpost-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png

 

Wow!  Tons more snow for this area too.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 11.8"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 42

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 12

 

 


#33
nwsnow

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:52 PM

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For those that missed this from the other thread...latest Euro looks a lot more promising for Portland.

 

attachicon.gifpost-164-0-25610500-1549759021.png

 

 

Anyone have any explanation of what changed here? The low simply further south? Photoshop?

 

Doesn't seem very believable given all the model trends to the north.  


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#34
snow_wizard

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:54 PM

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Incredible evening out there.  Clear skies and deep snow cover giving everything a blueish cast.  Looks cold!


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 11.8"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 42

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 12

 

 


#35
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:56 PM

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Anyone have any explanation of what changed here? The low simply further south? Photoshop?

 

Doesn't seem very believable given all the model trends to the north.  

 

 

12Z run showed this through Tuesday afternoon... 

 

ecmwf-tsnow-washington-15.png


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#36
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:59 PM

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The increase in that snowfall map on the 18Z run could also be from the Monday system.


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#37
Esquimalt

Posted 09 February 2019 - 05:59 PM

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NAM so far looking pretty similar to the RGEM with the low placement. Good news for us south islanders :)
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#38
Bham_Guy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:03 PM

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Looks like BLI had a gust of 67 today.


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#39
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:04 PM

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this doesn't account for todays snowfall from this morning does it?


The start of the 18z Euro was from 10AM this morning. So it counts any snow that it thinks fell from 10 AM onward.

#40
nwsnow

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:05 PM

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12Z run showed this through Tuesday afternoon... 

 

ecmwf-tsnow-washington-15.png

 

Interesting. No obvious indication that it went that much further south on the 18z if at all except quite a bit more snow for PDX. It is a pretty map but it is impossible for such a large section of the PDX metro to get even half that amount with a south wind. I would discount the totals down here entirely except for select areas. This is 7-10 inches for PDX in the same sprint as last night being a widespread 3-5 inches (as per euro runs before yesterdays event). It will be lots of cold rain or non-sticking wet snow sadly. 

 

IMO the only way this can be different is if the low goes much further south. 


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#41
Front Ranger

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:08 PM

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The increase in that snowfall map on the 18Z run could also be from the Monday system.


Yes, I think it went further south with that one.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#42
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:08 PM

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Interesting. No obvious indication that it went that much further south on the 18z if at all except quite a bit more snow for PDX. It is a pretty map but it is impossible for such a large section of the PDX metro to get even half that amount with a south wind. I would discount the totals down here entirely except for select areas. This is 7-10 inches for PDX in the same sprint as last night being a widespread 3-5 inches (as per euro runs before yesterdays event). It will be lots of cold rain or non-sticking wet snow sadly. 

 

IMO the only way this can be different is if the low goes much further south. 

 

Could this be decent for the West Hills/Mt. Tabor/Coucil Crest/Chehalem Mountain (anywhere above 500 ft) even in the metro area? Maybe an inch or two of snow?



#43
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:09 PM

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Low is not going south of Portland.   

 

00Z NAM...

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_29.png



#44
seattleweatherguy

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:10 PM

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Low is not going south of Portland.

00Z NAM...

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_29.png


Also shows a snow shadow for the sound

#45
Esquimalt

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:11 PM

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Hmmm the NAM wants to stall tomorrow evenings low in the puget sound at 1002 mb....



#46
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:11 PM

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Also shows a snow shadow for the sound


ECMWF showed that as well.

#47
Front Ranger

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:11 PM

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Low is not going south of Portland.

00Z NAM...

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_29.png


Wrong low.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#48
nwsnow

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:11 PM

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Low is not going south of Portland.   

 

00Z NAM...

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_29.png

 

The models have made the trends quite clear. Agree, it will not go south of Portland and that is why that 18z ECMWF snowmap will be completely wrong for here. 



#49
TT-SEA

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:13 PM

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You can clearly see the warm front developing quickly on Monday morning...

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_34.png



#50
KI2

Posted 09 February 2019 - 06:14 PM

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Low is not going south of Portland.   

 

00Z NAM...

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_29.png

 

Booooooo!

 

(but thank you for all your hard work with these maps lately, even though they have been quite a rollercoaster ride. You've put a lot of time into this one, enjoy the snow!)


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