For a statistical experiment I am calculating lots of Gerrity Skill Scores for contingency tables derived from Temperature forecasts/observations.
I tried the package for R, and when I use some relative probabilities as baseline that I have derived from climatological data, I sometimes get Scores greater than 1. I am pretty sure this should not happen.
Here is a script that can be run in batch mode R which should reproduce the error:
Problems with Gerrity Scores greater 1
in Climate, World Weather, and Earth Sciences
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Hello
For a statistical experiment I am calculating lots of Gerrity Skill Scores for contingency tables derived from Temperature forecasts/observations.
I tried the package for R, and when I use some relative probabilities as baseline that I have derived from climatological data, I sometimes get Scores greater than 1. I am pretty sure this should not happen.
Here is a script that can be run in batch mode R which should reproduce the error:
library('verification')
A=matrix(c(2394,481,0,0,0,0,4718,1399,0,0,0,0,1740,1755,0,0,0,0,3202,594,0,0,0,0,1717),nrow=5)
pb=c(0.0632,0.2692,0.1461,0.2338,0.2877)
multi.cont(A,pb)
I know that the contingency table does not represent the baseline probabilities, but I am still puzzled that this happens.
I also coded the procedure in matlab myself, with the information from the original paper and it reproduces the error.
Is there a condition about the baseline probabilities that I am not aware of?
Any Help is welcome.