ingyball

I like the e6 and e19 ensemble members for this weekend.

This week it looks like I will be experiencing my first ever Clipper, is there anything I should expect? I will probably be walking to when it occurs.

I'm excited I might see a real winter in Columbus Ohio now, 2009-2010 in North Texas is the closest I've been so far.

Where are you again? Southern Plains?

 

Glad they're ok.

 

All I'm hearing about tonight is that Garland, TX tornado. 8 killed

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/27/us/severe-weather/index.html

Yeah I live near DFW airport when I'm not in College, My Aunt and Uncle are only a couple of miles west(I think) from Garland.

MOnster tornado just east of me, it almost hit my Aunt and Uncle

is it too much for me to ask for the 12z CMC to verify? I would still be in North Texas then.

The latest GFS has 2 inches of snow for me in Denton County Texas and 8 inches in the county west of mine in the city of Decatur. 

I'm excited for this weekend, I'm getting Christmas Eve 2009 vibes from this system if digs like the GFS and CMC are showing

I'm back in Texas and over in another forum we're talking about how close this up coming weekend storm resembles the 2009 Christmas Eve Snow storm. We're hoping for a similar outcome. 

I don't think it got above 32 here in Columbus, if it did it was between the NWS recordings. Clouds lasted a lot longer than expected.

Since I'm going to be in Both Texas and Ohio for the winter, I like this map. 

This picture says it all

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112012/gfs_z500_mslp_us_40.png

That 1041 High is what might keep me trapped in Texas for a few days.

I don't like the 12z GFS, just as bad as 0z CMC, for me anyways. 

That 0z CMC is a mess and if it were to verify my flight back to Ohio next Sunday would be canceled and I would end up missing my last Calculus Midterm, goodthing it's the Crazy Canadian that has it though. (although it did land the 2010 foot of snow storm for North Texas, hopefully it's wrong this time)

I'll be going to Topeka Kansas for Thanksgiving, then I'll be back in Texas for a day before I get on a plane to head back to Ohio, some of these model runs are trying to trap me in Texas for a few days lol.

Too far north. :-(

I'm all for shifting that heavier snow axis southeast so it lines up with Oklahoma and Ohio.

I don't like the 18z GFS, it shows both snow in Ohio and at my home in Texas while I'm in Topeka Kansas for Thanksgiving.

Well, they had the part about several snow/ice storms down south correct. I went to work in Fort Worth May of 2010 and was pretty surprised to see pictures of legit snowmen that they had made from one of their bigger storms. I remember the system right at Christmas which must've been a real thrill for some kiddies that rarely see a flake, let alone a real snowfall for Santa!

I lived in the DFW Metroplex and 2009-2010 was the best winter ever, 7 inches of snow on Christmas eve that year at my house, then I recorded 14 inches in a storm that occurred in February and another 4 inches in a late March storm.

What is that 955 L?? Wow!! Where is that location? I cant tell on this map.

Looks like the Bering straits

12z Euro still showing a Bowling Ball storm system Day 8-10 for the Plains/Lakes region.  Blocking HP south of Hudson bay funneling enough cold air into the system to produce snows on the N/NW side of the system.  It's not as wound up as before, but still showing 2-6" snows in NE, 1-5" in IA.  The Track is from KS/C IL/C IN...Winter coming a little early this year???

What about Central OH?

Like Money said, it can snow when surface temps are more than a few degrees above Freezing...Current conditions in Sherman, SD...

 

28 Oct 2015, 1:56 PM

http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/40_clear/wx_77.png

Light Snow

38°F

Feels Like

28°F

• Humidity: 60%
• Wind Speed: 20mph
• Wind Direction: 310°
• Dew Point: 25°
• Visibility: 9mi

 

 

 

That wintry precip is heading your way James!

I once got a foot of snow in North Texas with the temp never getting below 34 degrees because of a cold core low.

Heck the 09-10 was one of the best winters in North Texas ever, I believe some areas saw totals of close to  30  total inches for the winter. We had a blizzard on Christmas eve. I think 09-10 was a snow lover's paradise for a lot of people in the U.S

Intense storm hitting the OSU Campus right now.

The maps you see in a typical El Nino all over TWC and Media are to "hype" up a "warmer" Winter Outlook.  They tend to forget what the body of warm water in the N PAC has done the previous 2 Winters.  That ridge is going to build in NW NAMER no matter how much people want to deny it this coming Fall/Winter/Spring.

 

Some of the statistical analog models are showing an enormous amount of probability of a very chilly October/November for the lower 48...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Slide08(23).jpg

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Slide09(54).jpg

 

Let me know if you can't see the maps....BTW, these maps are lining up well with the CFS model going forward.

This is why a lot of people don't think 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 may not be good analogs for this winter, a better analog might be 1957, which had a more similar El Nino to what a lot of people think 2015 could be, which is a warmer Nino 3.4 than a Nino 1&2. I'm not sure if 1957 had a warm pool in the N Pac, but if it stays this year I don't think it's going to be a typical El Nino winter in the Great lakes region.

P.S I might have totally blown the El Nino info, I'm still learning more and more about it and the different ocean features, there's a guy on a different forum who is really skilled with ENSO discussion.

Leaves should start turning color in 3-4 weeks id say.

Leaves have already starting changing colors on some trees on the Ohio State Campus.