Naptownwx

22 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

This is probably going to be a memorable outbreak for some. Everything is coming together for some big days. SPC just updated their day 3 outlook to add an enhanced. I suspect we get a moderate or two during this stretch. 

15 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is the part of the pattern that can put a dent in the ongoing drought and will likely produce alot of damaging storms.  Here's some thought from Gary Lezak as this is by far the most exciting stretch of weather in this years pattern and he thinks 3-5 inches of rain over the next 10 day is certainly possible for the KC area.

Weather 2020

Well, here we are almost 45-days after the strongest and most deadly severe weather outbreak in this year's LRC, March 12-14, and around 135 days after the other big winter outbreak in this part of the LRC, December 9th.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

Do you remember this day in the previous cycle? 3 people were killed in western Ohio. This part of the pattern is cycling back through, one of our signature long-range predictions, in the next six days! If you know the LRC, then you know it is due around 4/28

 

 

 

Yikes! Hopefully nothing like that again

Heads up. Could be an active stretch coming up.

Tuesday is could be bad

Next week looks like a really good setup for severe weather in the plains and further east

Big multi-day severe weather event is looking increasingly likely next week

I think we are getting ready to make up for lost time ️ 

16 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Most of the models have moved away from a 7, 8, 1 MJO and into a forecast for the null phase.  

That changes everyday. Lol

What the hell has happened to winter in December??? This is getting beyond ridiculous 

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I was just looking at a local weather blog and he mentioned how there is a lack of snow cover across central and southern Canada and how if we do get any polar push into the US it will modify dramatically due to the lack of snow cover to keep temps cold 

Everything is pointing towards a torch this winter. No doubt about it now unfortunately 

Not looking forward to this heatwave

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would have to look at forecast soundings to see if that 65-70 kt area has a chance of being mixed into, but it's only at 925 mb so it's probably at least dangerously close to getting tapped into.

That's in an area that is well below 0F and snowing at that time.  It's almost unbelievable that conditions could be so severe in non-mountainous terrain at this latitude.  

 

I have never been in a subzero blizzard  

35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anything resembling some of these model solutions would be a real concern.  Unlike Jan 1978 or most other blizzards, this one is coming right in time for a lot of Christmas traveling.  Anyone on the roads would be in substantial danger particularly if they get stranded.  

Very good point

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Didn't dig into it too much, but verbatim on the 00z Euro there is a zone in northern Indiana that would be getting good snow rates with temps near/slightly below 0F and wind gusts of 50-60 mph.  That would be something.

That would qualify as a  severe blizzard 

966 on the icon!

The icon is coming in strong

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

I mean, they are a pretty good outfit and a growing business.  Gotta give them props to be able to thrive in a competitive field.

Yes they are very good but tend get little carried away sometimes. I do however agree an extreme event is definitely on the table if the pieces come together right

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

@BAMWx made this comparison to the '78 Blizzard...

 

I really wish they would be more responsible. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Between snow amounts and wind, we would begin to enter into the theater of the absurd if something like that happens.  One thing to put those crazy amounts where few people live, but Gary to South Bend and northward... that area is decently populated.

This would qualify as a rare severe blizzard if it were to verify 

This pattern has extreme potential 

8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

What is the mean?

Very impressive chances for a white Christmas!

Not bad