El Nina

Another mild morning,sitting at 58 right now.

Maybe if it rains leading up to the 4th Oregon will allow the big fireworks. NOT!

Trend has been very decisive.

Is it showing rain or just a ton of marine influence?

Does not look like that kind of troughing on the 00Z GFS.

Well, with how the models have been flip flopping it'll probably change.

The 00Z just goes crazy with the troughing next week. Looks like its inevitable.

 

So much for a ridgy mid-June through mid-July following our late May through mid-June troughing.

 

The only hope right now in the much warm GEM... and that ain't much hope.

Despite being a troughy period, temperatures have still been slightly above normal. Maybe troughing isn t so bad? It creates a lot of 75 degree partly sunny days.

He/she hires a lawyer.

What if it isn t a he/she?

F'n A.

What happens when a lawyer needs a lawyer?

About patent law? You'd probably win, most of what I know evaporated shortly after passing the bar.

I patented that so you had to forget it.

Patent law can be very lucrative, but VERY dangerous.

Darn I was hoping you'd go the other route so we could have a debate.

The federal government is good at two things... Ripping children from the arms of their patents and purposefully breaking the spirit of pensive climate stalkers.

Patents?

Way too soon to say. If we have a hot and tinder dry July-September (likely) the rain now won’t matter so much. It will mainly serve to build up more fuels out there.

This is the best shape they have been in going into July for awhile. Rain event after rain event has pretty thoroughly made it green over there. Of course it could totally just not rain at all for the next 2 months like you're predicting and all this wouldn't matter. We'll see what happens.

Eastern Oregon got, and is still getting, a lot of rain from this system. Pararie City had got 0.47" as of 11 last night and the northern Blue Mountains have probabaly gotten well over an inch. The Ochocos also got appreciable rain out of this, just a couple days after their last decent rain. I think this will be a pretty tame fire season.

A station in West Linn recorded 0.79" out of that little stationary cell. A couple stations near Hazeldale picked up about 0.40".

Looks like the area west of 217 and south of Hwy 8 is getting hammered and its almost stationary... is that Hazeldale under that red cell?

Yes it is

It did a decent job on its evening run. I assume you have access to it?

I don't, how can I?

HRRR.

Yes...and?

Little cell just popped up near Oregon City.

Looks like Hood River and Stevenson are getting their a$$es handed to them.

That's what we were supposed to be receiving our a$$es from.

Don’t blame me. Tim gaslit the whole thing.

 

Whatever, I digress. I’ll take it to the eastern forum.

There's an eastern forum?

It's not going to thunder in the Willamette valley.

Latest HRRR is a little less anemic for the Portland area. Shows a little action late this evening between 8-10pm.

I'm assuming it shows it just popping up over us rather than coming off the cascades?

Is the GFS back in the circle of trust?

Exactly as forecast by the mesoscale models this morning. Not sure what the NWS is looking at as usual...

They must've thought we turned into a thunderstorm prone area after the surprise outbreak on Sunday.

The storms currently over the Cascades appear to be moving due north as opposed to NNW.

If anything they seem to be moving NNE.

Now a severe warning for SE Clackams county.