luvssnow_spokane

The waffling back and forth of the GFS is laughable. Every 6 hours its showing cold and wet solutions then the next its showing something watered down and dry. I'm not holding much weight in that model at this time.

 

The GEM is showing an active pattern starting at hour 168.

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ex0qrt.gif

 

The Euro will be telling. I'm thinking it will be on a similar wavelength as the GEM.

The GFS has been a mess but the EURO has not been great either. I am hoping for mountain snow at the bare minimum. Since all the models seem unreliable at this point who knows but I suspect we will get that at least.

If you love ridging you will love the 00z!! Out to hour 189 and ridges is as strong as ever.

I was always surprised that the area around Victor Falls didnt go up into flames every Summer.

Well, not sure what the fire was, where or even if it was real but included the Facebook thread/image below. NOTE: We had a fire back in the woods this past summer but it was deliberately set. The summer fire was actually on the news and first reported on our Facebook page: here is a link to the summer fire: http://www.blscourierherald.com/news/220124051.html

 

See attached for todays Facebook thread. (I assume it was nothing)

 

Uhhh, I'm no expert, but a [Fire Weather Watch] issued during January? Is this a first?

 

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR

255 PM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

 

...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS DRY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

 

.THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION AND A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... COMBINED WITH AN EXTREME LACK OF PRECIP SO FAR THIS YEAR...THIS VERY DRY AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE RIDGE LEVEL WILL BRING A VERY UNUSUAL FIRE DANGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AREA GO TO; GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5

 

WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-

CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-

TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-

SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER-

SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-

255 PM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...615...616...617...619...620...621...622 AND 623...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281...622...282...284... 621... 615... 623... 616...617...280...620 AND 619 THE GREATEST

DANGER WILL BE IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT.

 

* WIND...EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

 

* HUMIDITY...MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

 

* IMPACTS...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

 

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISITHTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

 

It was reported on our neighborhood Facebook page today that there was a fire in the woods close to our development this morning. I am not sure if this is true or not but will find out when I get home and report back. If it was indeed a fire I must admit that this would be a first for January.

The most telling harbinger of spring is the lack of posts from Snow_wizard.

I think there is enough uncertainty that he is being optimistically cautious... right now there looks to be a pattern change but nothing to grasp onto that is better than cooler with mountain snow and rain in the lowlands on a consistent basis. I do feel if we start seeing better more consistent runs he will be more active. 

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles look pretty decent for us. Looks like they are directly at odds with the unofficial forecast created by Andrew's chickens and ducks this morning.

 

LOL!!  Maybe the two huge flocks of Canadian geese I saw flying north this morning means something?

How about those Seahawks and improving chances of winter here. Maybe we can get a Super Bowl when and some snow around the same time!!! How does that sound?! See-hAwwwkwss

EURO fun! 

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

 

Well, lookey there. Baby steps in the right direction makes me believe the GFS is on to something! 

 

Go hawks!!!

Yeah there are several mods who are only online in the evenings...I cleaned up a lot more crap then people realized, but got removed because I said January was going to suck...The price of being right I guess.

What!?  Really!  That just does not make sense! If you got removed as a Mod for that then I am so sorry. I remember your posts around that time and how you referred to the upcoming January was totally fair and balanced. Talk about walking on eggshells on anything we say on here. Here are just a few things I feel would require any action from Mods.

 

1) Bashing and insults/attacks should not be allowed and kept to PM's - Specially if they are done just because you disagree. Both arguments should be supported and kept respectful. It is okay to disagree.

2) I feel excessive complaining and whining over and over should be dealt with. Lite grumbling is tolerable but incessant complaining gets old.

3) Extremely long debates over the same issue that go for pages should be moved to PM's

 

Overall, expressing your views/opinions right or wrong is fine as long as it supported to some extent. 

 

I am sorry that this happened to you as I always thought you were a great Mod!!

I am actually enjoyed tonight 0z and it appears the ensembles are not bad either.

I wonder what's after 'Advanced' Ooooo

Demi God

Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. Rainier

I have to admit, I am not sure if I should be amazed or depressed by that...     

http://i44.tinypic.com/t4wwth.png

The fisherman is going to open the door to greatness for us...  He is our good luck charm...

Honestly, all The models just completely suck for us all the way out past 300 hours (well 240 on the Euro). What glimmer of hope was shown yesterday was just that, a glimmer. The heart of this winter is epic from a dry and inactive point of view. I blame it on global warming.  --- Here comes Phil!! 

We'll the 18z was on crack ... The 00z is slap in the face back to reality. *sigh*... Release the Krackin, or the Sasquatch or anything to give us some action other than this death ridge!!!

Somebody should contact Jim.

 

I am almost positive that he has no idea that this new forum exists... he just thinks there is something wrong with the old forum.     Completely oblivious.   

I doubt he does not know how to get here. Big old links on the other forum and he was also an admin.

I agree with your 3 cents. I was hoping we’d start from scratch on this forum, and maybe have a separate place for the history log of westernusawx. 

 

18z is believable in my opinion. Not saying it’s going to catch on in future runs, but the sequence given some of the other signals turning in our favor would make sense. 

Yep, I share this sentiment exactly... 

It's nice to look at. I suppose if you're going to get there(to a major pattern change and chances of cold/snow) you do have to start somewhere. Who knows this could be step 1 in that process. We won't know that for several days.

Yeah, it has to start somewhere and there is enough stacked in our favor that is not completely unrealistic...  In the end this could all mean squat.

 

I just want Gorton the Fisherman to make appearance if this comes to reality.  *hint hint*

 

How much you want to make a bet there will be just a few more people paying attention to tonights 00z GFS and the Euro

Not to get to hyper about the 18z but it is honestly the best run for some time and continues a trend the models have hinted at for some time. This, along with other Meteorological  forcing factors  (i.e. SOI and others) make the outcome possible. The key here is the consistency shown for retrogression but specific details will be a mess for a while. Yes, it is still a long ways out but encouraging and a somewhat consistent large scale pattern the GFS as been showing for a number of runs now.  Hold onto your hats folks I think things are going to get interesting.

Hmmm, Nope not doing anything for me

 

NEXT!!!

Oh come on!  Have some fun and bite a little!!     It is the best run we have seen in weeks!!!! 

Looking like things want to start to retrograde at hour 240 on the 18z GFS

 

 

 

Nope but full blown retrogression establishing at hour 264 and the rest of run gets epic... 

Getting better...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gif

Baby Steps.  The GFS is showing some hope.

If that means an unstable, convective and active summer, then Im cool with it.

Me too!!  I honestly don't really know but it is very possible we might see a flip around this time for a good three to four months potentially leading to a very nice summer. Personally the sooner things get shaken up the better as I know we would all like to see a little more action before it is to late. I feel confident the mountains will get their snow pack in March and April this year. Better late than never and Makes for great spring skiing. 

At some point I imagine this has to be balanced out!! <_>

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Yep... spring time into summer.

39/34 with fog down here. Nice to have it feeling like winter again at least.

 

Personally I am hoping for a cold/active first half of spring this year. The mountains will be needing the snow and it would be nice to have some active weather for a few months.

 

I think we may some cooler days here also due to inversion and fog. At this point I will settle for fake cold.