MinnesotaSnow

Rain sandwich!

8-9” of snow Sunday night

1” of rain all day monday/Monday night 

2”+ so far with heavy snow right now in Minneapolis. Temps crashing and visibility under a quarter mile at the airport. 
 

what a storm 

8-9” of slop. Lots of moisture. This makes me happy. 

9 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I've been watching that. Hopefully it starts filling in. I'm eyeballing maybe 2"

HRRR and the NAM show this filling in soon. Heaviest rates aren’t modeled to arrived until 6pm or so. 

2 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

12 hours into the 12Z HRRR run so far and I'm not a fan of it. Not one bit. Keeps the moisture all down towards the rain/snow line and keeps the snow up here light.

Unfortunately, current radar made me worried that that would happen before this run even began.

The hi-res short term guidance has been brutal for central and western Minnesota, those areas looked locked in for 12-18”. NW Wisconsin might reel this one in. 

@hawkstwelvethanks for posting these model run comparisons to get a good handle on the trends. I really have no idea what to expect here riding the northern edge of the changeover

Not loving the trends on the NAM for the metro. I’m happy to get precipitation in any form, but painfully close to staying all snow. 

I want snow, but I’ll be happy with 1.5”+ of precipitation no matter the form. 

Rain or snow, it doesn’t matter just give Minnesota precipitation please. Wetlands, lakes, ponds, and rivers are dropping at the time of year they usually rise the quickest. 

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Anyone got the final #'s for Met Winter up in MSP??  I'm curious to know if MSP did in fact get less than ORD...it sounds like they did.

11.1” during Met Winter. Sitting at 14.3” overall total, good for 2nd lowest total ever if we don’t see any more. Record lowest is 14.2”

We are going to need a 2-4” precipitation week in a hurry.

Less then 0.75” YTD and the lack of typical snowpack and frost coupled with record heat has things very dry with a bleak forecast. 

4” so far at my homestead big cotton balls. 

12 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Yeah, I went on a ski trip to the UP in Michigan mid January, and there was more snow in SE Wisconsin than the UP. Lots of really weird stuff going on. Almost looks like the Snowbowl by Tom is some of the best snow in the country for skiing right now. Really weird winter, I blame the Nino.

This is a classic strong nino setup for Minnesota being exasperated by the screw-zone dome sitting right over the state. 

Southern plains getting more snow this season then Minneapolis was not on my bingo card. 

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

I'm afraid so too. Skinner does do much better than Vail. I think Vail actually succeeded in killing Wilmot Mountain down by us. Top of the hill is dirt on their webcam. Whitecap has some awesome terrain, I think they would have been ok this winter if they actually got snow.

That's what Wilmot looks like right now. I was just at Alpine Valley Friday and it was actually great considering all the rain. Vail just buys up resorts to get people to buy epic passes and get them out west. Wilmot was a nice family owned place at one time.

I don't mind Skinner buying up resorts, but he buys up all the good ones, he's old, and I'm worried what's going to happen in the next 10 years or so. At least he seems to be trying to set things up for a future long term with Midwest Family Resorts or whatever it's called.

It's been an extremely tough business this year for anything that depends on snow. Even man made.

I used to ski Wilmot growing up when I’d visit family in Lake Zurich IL. Vail ruined Afton Alps, just outside of St. Paul MN. They have invested zero into the hill while charging nearly $100 a day unless you have their pass. I understand the business strategy, but it hurts the greater industry. 

9 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Whitecap Resort is an hour and half NW from Vilas. I went there a weekend or two ago. I've never seen the UP in such sad shape. It's going to look a lot different next winter, for sure. I don't think Whitecap is going survive, honestly. Their main lodge lift needs a cable splice, which is expensive and difficult, the main lift between the two mountains is broken. The runs that were open were awfully weak, low base, rocks, etc. We were there for a weekend in January, only other people there were really the WCHC crowd that loves Whitecap. Between that and big Cali money Skinner buying Indianhead and Blackjack, making snow, and installing a high speed 6 pack lift I think there's going to be problems up there next year for ski resorts.

Hopefully we can get some LES to at least save the ski resorts up there. If it does I plan on making another trip up there.

We will continue to see consolidation across the industry. With rising costs from insurance to wages, and maintenance it’s inevitable for the smaller resorts to consolidate to survive. I’m not necessary anti-Skinner family buying up resorts, if they can maintain the local hill feel. (Always have loved Lutsen) However it’s the mega corps like fail resorts buying up properties that worries me. 

1 hour ago, Minny_Weather said:

Pretty disheartening how far east this thing shifted. On one hand, I'm glad it'll be an easy drive to Duluth for me. On the other hand, the north shore just won't be the same without the foot+ of snow cover that's typically there when I go in January.

They had a big lake effect dump up there yesterday. Finland MN picked up 17”

One of the worst model performances locally I can remember. Yesterday almost every model was showing 6-8” for the TC. I think we will be lucky to get 1”

22 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Awesome! I was on UA6128. The gear came down before we even got to the cloud tops, I was extremely surprised at how low they were.

You came in right after me, probably missed ya by 10min at baggage claim. 

2 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Complaints about how horrid this winter is setting up for me aside, I had quite the approach into MSP today. Great to be home.

I was on UA1310 today. Cloud tops only 3k feet or so. 

It dipped below freezing this morning. 
 

#smallvictories

It’s supposed to be day one of the heat here but stuck on the right (or wrong) side of the front. 75 and muggy.

While it’s quite hot this week, this heatwave is very routine and nothing out of the ordinary. 3-5 days in the 90s with two topping out near 100, then back to average. If this is the worst of summer I’ll take it. 

I am impatiently waiting for our latest death band. 2-3” by bedtime 

I’m measuring 12-14” around my driveway. Kinda tough with the wind either blowing it away or loading it off the trees and elsewhere. There will be some 15”+ reports I bet. 

….and it’s snowing