KTPmidMO

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I noticed on the Euro weeklies and the GEFS extended the EPO and AO after a brief spike positive are forecasted ro go back negative. 

So is this saying temps may not stay warm for very long or the warmer temps will be colder than possibly forecast?

Snow seems a little further south in Kansas than what short term models were predicting? RAP and HRRR saying just to the east of Salina, KS could pick up 4 inches of snow. No big models were picking up on that and RAP and HRRR seem to be reflecting that at the last minute as well. anyone close to these areas?

18z NAM 

18z NAM 3km

Starting to maybe find a little bit of hope for a decent snow here in mid Missouri?

1 hour ago, ATW said:

There’s been a tendency for storms to trend north this winter but with such cold air in place that would be doubtful.

That's what I'm hoping. NAM and NAM 3km seem to be further north with it. The NAM has been spot on with these last 2 storms. It was the one that had the further north solution from the beginning and we all thought it was drunk only to prove us wrong in the end. So is the further north solution that the NAM is showing gonna happen and all other models will play catch up again? I don't know but that's my hope right now. lol

What's the chance of this coming back north a bit? I know models this year have trended north 3-4 days prior to the storms so wonder if this will do the same?

I just really want to cash in on one of these storms. Not getting in on the first 2 so hoping for a north trend at this point.

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro remained pretty much unchanged. Slightly higher totals in NE. 

Not really surprising there were no large changes considering 18z runs don't get new data input. 00z runs on the other hand will (hopefully) be very telling. 

Do you have the Central US one for this through the whole storm? Thanks in advance

Boy I swear, got missed by the storm last week, gonna get missed by the storm this week. Was hoping to cash in on this one but the trend for it looks like it may miss me to the south. What do I have to do?! Is there an Indian dance for snow? lol

13 minutes ago, ATW said:

I think we need to bank on a different storm! The trend has been to go north. The last storm kept trending north then came back a little south right before it hit….at least in Missouri. 

Yeah I haven't had a good feeling about this storm for central Missouri for a couple days now. Maybe I'll get proved wrong but I don't know. I'm more interested in the Monday system. Most models are putting a WIDE area of snow down on Monday and ratios look to be 20:1 or better.

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Precisely!  That’s when the main energy hopefully bombs out somewhere across the S MW into lower lakes.

Right now, it seems like most models have it bombing out just after getting through Missouri. I hope that's not the case.

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

It suggests and based on what the models are showing that there will be a lead wave and then a stronger secondary low coming up from the Gulf states or Arklatex.

So being here in mid Missouri, I need to try to bank in on that second low?

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

SREF is WAY N compared to 6 hours ago-

All the numbers around the L is the possible Low location and strength from different members correct?

If I am correct in that, are you telling me that some members have the low down in Texas while some members have it in Iowa? Thats crazy.

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The 12z EPS is wild.  Pardon me, but omfg

And you say that, why?

How is everyone's actual temps comparing to hourly forecast temps?

Mine appears to be a few degrees colder at 36 compared to the forecast 39 at 10 AM.

Does anyone have a good radar that they use? Want something that reflects good. What does everyone use?

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z NAMs

Much further south here in missouri. Have to watch temp profiles and radar as its happening to see if this will verify or not.

Big south trend on NAM and NAM 3Km with 12z run?

Missouri is UGLY on HRRR. Makes me want to cry a little bit..

GEFS 06z vs 12z

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think we're screwed but the GFS held

 

Not sure why but GEFS came south quite a bit with the southrn extent. Took me from 4.7" to 9.4."

12 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

What a huge disappointment .

I feel your disappointment winterfreak. Maybe we'll get in it next time.

Rug pulled out from under me right before the storm, gotta love it. Congrats to everyone up north that's gonna get hit, once again.

10 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Kuchera map of the last 13 GFS runs, ending 6am Wednesday morning.

Exactly, I've been in the thick of it for most runs here in Jefferson City, MO and now its about to completely miss me to the north. 

I'm about to throw the towel in on this one. I went from being in 15" yesterday and a lot of models agreeing that the main snow band would be through central mo. Now, the only 2 models showing worth anything here in central MO is the GDPS and GFS. And the GFS has went from giving me 15" to now barely even 5." Another run or 2 and I'm bound to completely be out of it. Just a little disheartening after being in the bullseye almost all week. 

Exactly my thoughts. I've been in it big time all week and I'm gonna have the rug pulled out from under me right at the end. D**n shame.

9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Cobb 24 HR-

What is Cobb?