MIKEKC

October snow in KC, it happened last year and we went onto having a beautiful cold/stormy winter.

Gary Lezak and the LRC. Can’t post tough questions on his blog or you get deleted. All of August he discussed and forecasted a wet and cool September in KC, we’re currently over 5 degrees above average and climbing and have been very dry since August 30th. His 12 week forecasts were way off for Sept. and today he came on and said that his LRC model forecasted a warm Sept. LOL

The poor guy can’t accept a miss forecast. They’re gonna happen. His forecast is based off a 49 day cycle. We’re in the 7th cycle, 49 days ago when our heat stretch started this month is when KC has its hottest stretch of the year. Following that, we had 2 weeks of below average temps(which was nicely forecasted by Tom to close out July) so, 49 days later, we’re in a well above average pattern and quite dry which has made many bloggers question...”what happened to the cycling pattern”

So, Tom, when will KC catch a break as this heat and humidity is no fun in Sept. very bad for seed and sod season. GFS shows changes by this weekend, right around the first day of Fall. Let’s hope so!

Yep, the EURO weeklies from 3 weeks ago showed a warm/hot Sept. ......that looks to be on track. We caught some rain here in KC last night, not a bunch, but enough to water seed and sod. Been too warm here too and looks to be a hot week coming up.

LRC called for a cooler/wetter month of Sept...off to a total opposite pattern then that.

Please come fall!!

Chiefs....going to be hard to stop that offense. 40 points on the road against a top 5 defense.

I sure hope there are some changes coming, we are dry in most parts of KC and have been since June 1st. Yes, the official reporting station for KC showed much above totals for June, but 90 percent of that total came in a 12 hour period around the 25th. I have only recorded 7 days of rainfall since June 1st and two of those days were .25 or less.

Hopefully the central plains can see some more widespread rainfalls as we move through August. There have been a few deluges in some areas of the plains, but widespread rains have been hard to come across since May.

Thanks for all the great information/forecasting Tom, you keep it exciting!!!

Finally received some good rains in KC, I got hit, however, some parts of the area still missed out. Most of the June days were dry here, July has been the same. We did have big amounts on a few June days and a few July days, but, those rains came hard and fast. We have had to water quite often down here. Not a wet pattern so far this summer in my opinion.

Where do we go from here? Looks like a beautiful, but dry week ahead. Much cooler temps....GFS suggesting heat comes back for the KC area starting this coming weekend. Will it be a hot August??

Hot and dry in KC...again. LRC called for “ trough that doesn’t move” for the month of July resulting in wet/cool conditions for KC. Quite the opposite is occurring and we are now in need of rain.

We may cool off by early next week, however, it does not appear the heat goes too far from KC. It May charge back in here later next week. Not much rain in the long range GFS forecast...

Great pool weather!!

@Tom

You still seeing a cooler and stormier set-up for the central plains in July. The 12z GFS is awful hot and dry the next 16 days for KC. Is it wrong?? KC finished the last 2 out of 3 months above average on temps, will that continue this summer?

@Tom,

Yes, we had a bunch of rain. Only problem, it came really quick. Most of the 4.5 inches that fell at my place ended up in the River which had dropped well below flood stage with the first 3 weeks of the month being dry. It’s on the rise again as there was a bunch of rain off to our NW too. It got back above flood stage quickly.

Looks like a much calmer pattern this week into the 4th of July holiday. Much warmer too...it’s summer!

Winter is only 5-6 months away or maybe just 4 months away if it shows up early like it did in 2018

Thanks Tom. I think if you go by the actual spring period of March 20th to June 20th you will see KC was right about average. (Maybe) The month of April officially was 1.7 degrees above average, MAY was 1.6 below, and first 20 days of June we were .6 degrees above average. My math may be way off...LOL

MCS with thunderstorms on the leading edge heading for KC this morning, we need it as most of the area is 2-3 inches behind for the month.

@Tom

Did KC finish spring with above average temps? I think it did...the reason I bring it up is that the long range forecasts back in March called for a well below average spring. April was above average and June will finish above average it appears with much warmer weather on the way.

Suppose to be an MCS trucking across KS tonight, hopefully KC gets it as we have dried out big time this month.

We are watering again in KC! Going on 14 days with no rain and some parts of the city going on 3 weeks without a good rainfall.

We are now fully watering all of our properties we service, this is after a very wet May. The LRC based forecast was for a very wet open to June with flooding to continue. The total opposite has happened.

I think KC is actually above average on temps for the spring(March 21st to current)

Tom,

Oops, I didn’t read your comment above. We’ll see, the models showed a bunch of rain for KC back in early April for the next 2-3 weeks and here we sit with some parts only seeing .5 inches this month.

May and June are very wet months in KC on average, hopefully they act like it this year.

The LRC called for a wet/wild/cool month of April for the KC area. The total opposite has occurred, we’re above average on temps and parts of the city are 2.5 inches below average on moisture. We have missed every storm except for a few smaller ones. Hopefully rain returns soon as we were terribly dry last spring and summer.

Tom,

The cycling pattern forecast was a bust for KC in April. Lezak won’t let you know that and he deletes your comments on his blog when you ask why? You are great at letting people know when you miss a forecast, thanks for doing that. Although you don’t miss too many. Lezak runs and hides or makes up excuses. Love your analysis on the pattern every day.

How’s KC looking the next two months? Will we be above average on temps in May like we were in April? Big rains coming?

Hawkeye,

Most of that was south of the city and it came fast. All rolled off. I’m in north KC and we have been running irrigation for a couple of weeks now. 86 and very windy now....

Most recent GFS has very little rain in the next few weeks. Lezak called for a wet spring and cooler then average spring, the total opposite is happening. It’s early, we still have time to get wet, we’ll see.

Where’s this cycling wet pattern? Under an inch of moisture in last 4 weeks and some parts of KC even lower then that. The LRC called for a wet/cool/ wild month of April for KC. Big bust!!!! Another dry week ahead...after 22 inches of moisture since Oct, we are now watering heavily in KC.

Snowing in KC this morning following 1-2 inches of rain which we did not need. We have a complex of ball fields that we take care of that are still under water from the river flooding. League play opens in 3 weeks, not sure if this park will be ready.

Hopefully April will be warmer with more gaps in the rainfall. This upcoming week looks much warmer then it has been. Everything greened up quickly down here. Nothing has bloomed yet so the hard freeze tonight won’t matter too much.

Another .50 inch of rain this morning we didn’t need. Crazy saturation in KC with another wet storm due in early in the week. Need some dry/windy weather.

Snow pack is gone, however, large piles still remain. Currently 64 degrees right now, won’t last long though, west wind about to come screaming in.

Good stuff, Tom. Thanks for the detailed response.

I have always stood by that predicting long range weather is 50/50 at best. Lezak using the LRC says he is 80 percent. If you have studied his forecasts and read is blogs, you will find that he basically talks about all possible outcomes using the LRC then claims victory. Just today, he posted an article about a lady doubting his winter forecast. (BTW his winter forecast this year for KC was dead on!) She said that she would never doubt him again.

If you dig deep, you will find that 6 out of his last 10 seasonal forecasts using the LRC for KC have been wrong. This might be a spring forecast, a summer forecast, a winter forecast. There were parts of the forecast that were right, but more wrong then right. Now, for a guy like me in a business that revolves around the weather, these forecasts didn’t help.

He’s great at putting so much out there on the blog, that if you dig deep enough you will find the comment that matches the weather. Never real direct on what will happen, but real direct after the fact.

Just last Spring, KC just came out of a winter that was very dry/cold. The forecast for May and June using the LRC was for average moisture and below average temps. We had below average moisture and way above average temps. If you read over the discussion in March and April, he mentioned the drought contracting back to the SW of KC and with his forecast of average moisture, was not concerned about a drought in KC. Today, he claimed that he forecasted a drought in KC.

My whole point, with such vague LRC predictions, you can find a way to make it work. He’s great at that. To the normal viewer, you can convince them real easy that this or that was forecasted.

I have asked him several times to give me a 3 month forecast for KC week by week, detailed with cold fronts, warm/dry periods, when storms will occur, etc. He has yet to do that. If the LRC knows, this should be easy to do. I challenge anyone using the LRC to give me that 3 month forecast, I promise it will come in at 50 percent or less on accuracy.

BTW, he mentioned on his Monday’s blog in a comment that he expects a warm-up two-three week’s from March 4th. You on the other hand said the last two weeks of the month might be another push of winter temps. Are you still seeing that?

Have a great day!!

Without a doubt! Long range forecasting will continue to be a challenge but it has gotten a lot better over the years with better modeling. I will argue though, that the development of the LRC method has been very useful. In terms of predicting patterns, storms, etc, it still takes a humans "touch" to make a forecast which is an "art" form. However, maybe in the near future someone can incorporate Artificial Intelligence or some sort of technology software where a computer "remembers" or "see's" similar patterns and can better predict the weather. That's a whole other subject to talk about and something I've been thinking about.

 

For example, during Oct-Nov we had one of the coldest/wettest/snowiest starts to an LRC in parts of KS, esp in Nov when records were being broken. You have to consider that during this cycle, the jet is just beginning to energize due to temp differences from the Pole to the Equator and the challenge for making a prediction 50, 100, 150, 200 days out is all up to the forecaster. There will obviously be challenges in Cycles 2, 3, 4 and so on...esp when you get into the Spring/Summer months when the jet is at its lowest strength. You cannot take a particular storm on a certain date between Oct-Nov and say that it will track in that same location in cycles 3-5. It just doesn't happen. For example, a High Pressure system in the cold months across the Dakotas or Canada will produce frigid air BUT in the late Spring/Summer months that same High Pressure (Ridge aloft) will have an opposite effect and produce Heat or warmth. As a forecaster, you have to account for these differences as the seasons change. For these reasons, I expect a warm to hot start to Summer across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest/GL's and into the East Coast. I've learned this over the years and how to accommodate making adjustments to certain weather patterns in the LRC's cycle. A big part of this year's LRC has been the SW Flow which will likely continue throughout the remainder of the LRC cycles. It's going to remain active in the Plains states so you should def prep for a wet summer. I also feel that it will be an an unusually wet Spring/Summer in So Cal/4 corners region. There is a lot more I would like to discuss but not enough time right now to get into. The LRC has its flaws and hopefully it will get better in the future with its own high tech LRC computer model. Nice discussion.

I would agree 100 percent. But, how can you predict conditions for a given location 50, 100 days out like he often claims. How does that help a guy like me where weather influences my business every day?

So the LRC called for a storm on specific date or general period of time, but, it could be anywhere from Texas, to western KS to Minnesota to St.Louis. How does that help contractors, farmers, etc.?

Case and point, do you think the LRC predicted a shut down the city blizzard from KS to Omaha, and points north and east using the cycling pattern? How were those folks informed. Were they informed by saying the LRC predicts a storm in this time period but with seasonal influences we don’t know the track or precip type. This does no good for a guy like me preparing staff, material and equipment for a large snow storm.

Omaha 50 days ago from that storm date, (2nd cycle) was dry and in the 50’s for high temps. That Same storm that tracked a whole state and half away the last two cycles, smashed KS up to Omaha with a major blizzard. Totally different results from the previous cycles.

The LRC is a fantastic tool at predicting storm dates/periods. However, as the seasons change so does the strength of the jet stream which means making adjustments to he track of a particular storm. It’s true there was a +AO last week but there was also a stout -EPO which is the big blocking ridge off the west coast that allows the cold to press farther south. So again, the system was on schedule but different influencing factors came into play this go around which had a “similar” but “different” result.

Thanks Tom....makes some sense..Lol

Late last winter, KC, at the end of April finished with 4 straight months with below average temps with April being the coldest ever in recorded history. So, the LRC predicted a cooler then average spring and was saying the same about summer. I agreed with it as I thought with a cycling pattern we would continue to see the cold fronts with seasonal differences. However, KC skipped spring and went straight to summer in May and we never looked back. We had a drought and way above average temps following the 4 straight months of below average.

KC just completed the wettest Oct. 1st to Feb. 28th period ever...EVER! So, one would think and predict a very wet spring and summer in the Plains. Not so fast, as the other 9 years in that top 10 wettest Oct. 1st to Feb. 28th periods produced (3) average (3) very dry and (3) wetter than average precip years. 6 out of the 9 years produced average to below average precipitation. A wet spring and summer is not a for sure thing.

Look back to 2011-2012 winter, KC recorded its lowest snowfall total in history of 3.9 inches. However, we were very active and had a wet fall and winter. April came and we went completely dry and the drought was on. The pattern did not cycle wet.

3 winters ago KC was bone dry, warm and snowless, so, the LRC forecast was for a drought in the spring and summer. What happened, we had flash floods, very wet months and finished the year with some areas 20 inches above normal on precip. Temps were below average in both the spring and summer after a very warm winter..

Where am I going with this? The LRC claims it knows how the weather will be in any given location, 10, 30, 50, 100,200 days from now, but, I have just given you many examples of how different spring and summer turned out compared to winter.

Is forecasting the future still quite challenging? Lezak would say the LRC knows, but Mother Nature has offered up different results and the proof is there.

Thanks LNK!

I use to follow and post often to Lezak’s blog, been a supporter of him for 10+ years. However, lately his blog as become a cheerleading blog lacking any real discussion and debate. All it is now are comments from him saying “the LRC nailed it” weather2020 knew what this storm would do” etc. If you question the LRC or state your own opinion, he erases your post. Basically, your opinion or questions aren’t allowed. Tough questioning of the LRC he runs and hides..

It’s really unfortunate as the blog use to have great bloggers which in turn produced great discussions and debates.

Welcome to the board!

Tom,

Also, the blizzard that hit western KS up to Omaha a couple weekend’s ago was said to be the part of the pattern that produced 9inches of snow in St. Louis in the second cycle and a wet storm in cycle one. Now, this storm tracked 500+ miles farther to the NW then the previous cycles, Lezak claimed the storm went farther NW because of the positive AO.

Well, just this last Saturday and Sunday the storm tracked south hitting KC and folks to the south of KC with the same positive AO. So, how can it be both. My argument was that the AO didn’t matter but Lezak used it as an excuse for a storm tracking much farther north then previous cycles. He claimed the LRC nailed the storm but how could you of predicted that from 50, 100 days out like he claims he did when in previous cycles it tracked south of St. Louis?